ASM PACIFIC（00522.HK）：semi驱动订单高于季节性水平；维持跑赢行业评级

科技硬件FLAG · 公众号 · · 2021-03-01 23:32

正文

4Q20 revenue beats but GM misses

ASMPT reported 4Q20 results: revenue was HK$4.92bn, an increase of 10.5% YoY and 15.2% QoQ thanks to semi related demand. GM slumped 4ppt QoQ to 28.9%, given write-offs of some long-tail items. ASMPT estimated strong 1Q21 bookings surpassing US$700mn, with B/B ratio exceeding 1.2, mainly attributable to strong growth in the semiconductor (semi) segment order. We expect ASMPT’s sales to enjoy robust growth (excluding the materials segment spin-off) and margins to improve in 2021. Maintain OUTPERFORM.

Strong 1Q21 bookings growth with GM recovery. ASMPT forecasts 1Q21 bookings will exceed US$700mn, implying YoY growth of 21%. In the event of supply constraints, we forecast billings at US$500–550mn. Meanwhile, ASMPT considers the GM drop as a temporary side effect rather than astructural decline. We expect GM in the semi segment to rebound to 40% as the impactfrom inventory provisions has been resolved.

Advanced Packaging (AP) segment to enjoy sturdy growth. Revenue from AP rose over 50% YoY in 2020 and ASMPT expects it to see sustained momentum in 2021. ASMPT recently announced its partnership with EVG in ultra-precise, highly configurable die-to-wafer hybrid bounding solutions. We believe ASMPT will maintain its leading position in AP due to its strategic collaboration with IBM and EVG and dedicated support fromtop-tier customers (e.g. Intel and TSMC).

Demand from other tools remains healthy. ASMPT predicts packaging equipment for IC/discrete, CIS and LED will maintain steady growth in 2021. The firm saw an uptick in demand for wirebonder orders, and its contribution may rise given strong capex plans from OSAT and IDM. Conventional lighting demand has bounced back, and the firm expects mini-LED-related orders to pick up this year. It also expects the CIS segment to deliver better than 2020 results as the smartphone shipment is about to grow.

Financials and valuation

We revise down our 2021 revenue forecast by 13% given the materials business spin-off, and maintain our 2021 net profit forecast, given materials had a low margin, and the better product mix. We also introduce 2022 revenue and net profit forecasts of HK$19.0bn and HK$3.2bn. The stock is trading at 20.4x 2021e P/E. We lift our TP by 9% to HK$125 based on 23.7x 2021e P/E (16% upside, high range of the previous business cycle to reflect booming semiconductor industry end-demand).

Risks

Unsustainable semiconductor related demand; supply chain constraints may cause delayed tools delivery.

Figure 1: Quarterly results review