来自奥马哈大会的10条投资启示

谢谢关注缓慢思考！

原文来自网站behavioralvalueinvestor。 文章是作者参加2018年巴菲特股东大会总结的巴菲特和芒格的10条真知灼见。这些观点，有些是新的，有些是老的，但是都有一个特点：经得起时间检验，并值得常常回顾。Enjoy！

Listening to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and other smart investors over the course of the weekend surrounding the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in Omaha is always informative. This year was marked by the usually laconic Charlie Munger, known for his typical “I have nothing to add” answer, answering many questions in depth. Below I examine my 10 insights from this year’s trip, which are a combination of new ideas and helpful reminders about those from the past that are still important today.

周末期间，听巴菲特、芒格和其他聪明的投资人在奥马哈举行的伯克希尔.哈撒韦股东会的谈话，信息量很大。往年，芒格通常以“我没什么要说的”作答，今年他深入地回答了许多问题。下面我将从今年的行程中挑出10条真知灼见，这些见解既有新的想法，也有过去的但时至今日仍值得时常回顾的。

1. “One of Berkshire’s secrets is that when there is nothing to do Warren is very good at doing nothing.” [i] – Charlie Munger

1.“ 伯克希尔的秘密之一就是当没什么事能做的时候，沃伦擅长什么也不做。 ”- 查理 . 芒格

Investors frequently discount tomorrow’s opportunities. The result is that when there is nothing to do that meets their investment criteria they frequently opt to invest in the best of what is available – adopting a relative rather than an absolute approach. As I have argued in The Low Cost of Inaction: Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There!adopting a relative approach and forcing yourself to invest can often be a mistake. One of Buffett’s key strengths is being exceptionally disciplined in waiting for investment opportunities that meet both his qualitative criteria and offer a substantial margin of safety by way of a large discount from intrinsic value. Doing otherwise has the potential both to result in mediocre long-term returns and to increase the risk of permanent capital loss.

投资者经常忽视明天的机会。结果是，当没有符合他们投资标准的标的时，他们会经常倾向投资手头有的最好的机会—采用相对而非绝对的投资方法。正如我在“低成本的不作为：站着别动”一文中所阐述的那样，采取相对的方法并强迫自己投资往往是一个错误。巴菲特的主要优势之一是其极其的自律，等待既符合其定性标准，同时相对内在价值有足够的折扣保证充分的安全边际的投资机会。不这么做，就有可能导致平庸的长期回报，并增加资本永久损失的风险。

2. “I can't give you a formulaic approach to investing because I don't use one. I analyze all of the factors and come up with an intrinsic value. If you want formulas you should go back to grad school so that they can teach you things that don't work.”– Charlie Munger

2.“ 我不能给你一个公式化的投资方式，因为我没有。我分析所有的因素，然后得出一个内在价值。如果你想要一个公式，你应该回到研究生课堂，他们能教你一些没实际用的东西。” - 查理 . 芒格

Investing is part art and part science. Those just starting out frequently search, often in vain, for a clear-cut and rigid approach. They hope that if only they diligently apply a formula or a precise set of rules that their efforts will be successful. While one should have a rigorous process, analyzing a company’s qualitative attributes or the caliber of its management team can’t be reduced to a formula or a mechanical exercise. Nuanced judgment is required. The same holds true for other parts of the investment process, including deciding which companies to investigate and estimating the future profitability of the business under consideration. The old adage – that good investing is simple, but not easy – definitely holds true.

投资是一部分部分艺术，一部分科学。那些刚开始投资的人，常常寻找一个精确而严格的方法，但往往徒劳无功。他们希望只要他们努力运用一套公式或一套精确的规则，他们的努力就会取得成功。虽然人们应该有一个严格的投资流程，但分析公司的定性属性或管理团队的素质不能简化为公式或机械练习。细微的判断是必需的。投资过程的其他部分也是如此，包括决定调查哪些公司以及估算业务未来的盈利能力。有个古老的谚语说的对 - 好的投资很简单，但并不容易。

3. “Competitive moats have always been under attack, but the pace of change has become faster than it had been in the past.” – Warren Buffett

3.“ 竞争护城河从来都是一直受到攻击，只是变化的速度比过去更快了。 ” - 沃伦 . 巴菲特

A competitive advantage, or a “moat” as Buffett calls it, has never been permanent nor static. Competition catches up to many companies, technology evolves and consumer preferences shift – all of which can change a company’s competitive position from formidable to mediocre. On the other hand, a skilled management team can take actions which can improve a company’s competitive position, widening the moat. In the last decade the pace of change has accelerated in a number of industries, in part driven by the internet and the new business models that it has given rise to. One implication for a value investor is to be particularly vigilant against the danger of investing based on “yesterday’s moats.” Merely establishing that a company has a strong competitive advantage is insufficient to conclude that it will remain sustainable, and extra diligence is needed to understand if and how the moat might erode.

竞争优势，巴菲特称之为“护城河”，从来都不是永久的也不是静态的。竞争是许多公司面临的问题，技术在发展，消费者偏好在转变 - 所有这些都可以将公司的竞争地位从强大变为平庸。另一方面，熟练的管理团队可以采取措施提高公司的竞争地位，扩大护城河。在过去的十年里，一些行业的变化速度加快了，部分原因在于互联网和它引发的新业务模式。对价值投资者的一个启示是要特别警惕以“昨天的护城河”为基础的投资风险。仅仅认定一家公司具有强大的竞争优势并不足以断定它将保持可持续性，需要加倍努力去理解护城河是否和如何会被侵蚀。

4. “My theory is that if a business can't withstand a little mismanagement it's not a good business.”– Charlie Munger

4.“ 我的理论是，如果一家企业不能承受一点点管理不善，这不是一个好生意。 ” - 查理 . 芒格

Sometimes there is debate about whether it’s more important to have a high-quality business or competent and aligned management team that can adopt to change well. While ideally we would have both, it’s important that a business not be so fragile as to allow management missteps to permanently impair it. If the business truly has a sustainable competitive advantage, then it should be able to recover from temporary mis-management and regain its past position.

有时会出现关于这样的争论，高质量的业务或能力卓越、利益一致并能适应变化的管理团队哪个更重要？虽然理想情况下我们会拥有两者，但重要的是企业不应该如此脆弱，以至于让管理失误永久损害企业。如果企业真正具有可持续的竞争优势，那么它应该能够从临时的管理失误中恢复过来并重新获得过去的地位。

5. “For some businesses the corporate tax cut benefits will get competed away and be passed on to the consumer, for others some or all will be retained by the shareholders.”– Warren Buffett

5.“ 对于一些企业来说，公司减税优惠将被竞争所逼迫而转嫁给消费者，对其他一些企业，部分或全部有可能归于股东。 ” - 沃伦巴菲特

The naïve, “level 1”, analysis is that as the corporate tax declines, corporate profits will increase commensurately. However consider two companies with no advantages in a commodity industry that were previously just earning their cost of capital. If the above analysis were to hold true, all of a sudden these two companies would start earning abnormal returns above their cost of capital – not a likely result given the nature of the industry and their competitive position. If that were the natural long-term equilibrium for their situation, they would have been already earning returns in excess of their cost of capital prior to the tax cut. So the stronger the company’s competitive advantage and pricing power, the more likely it is to keep the benefits of the tax cut.

天真的、“第一层次级”的分析认为，随着公司税收的下降，公司利润将相应增加。然而，考虑两家在大众商品行业没有优势的公司，他们以前只是赚取了资本成本。如果上述分析成立，突然之间，这两家公司将开始获得高于其资本成本的异常收益 — 考虑到该行业的性质和竞争地位这不是一个可能的结果。如果这是他们竞争下的自然长期均衡的结果，那么他们在减税之前就已经应该可以获得超过资本成本的回报。所以公司的竞争优势和定价能力越强，他们越有可能保住减税带来的收益 。

6. “Markets grow more efficient as they get older.”– Warren Buffett

6.“ 随着时间的推移，市场变得更有效率。 ” - 沃伦 . 巴菲特

Security markets in mature countries like the US have likely become more efficient over time. This makes sense – participants have had time to understand the companies and have a robust historical data set on how they get priced over time. This however does not imply that markets have become efficient and that there is no opportunity for a thoughtful value investor following a rigorous process to occasionally find undervalued securities. Recall that the two main reasons for market inefficiency are behavioral biases and perverse incentives of some of the participants. These factors are not likely to materially change any time soon as they are deeply structural in nature.

随着时间的推移，像美国这样的成熟国家的证券市场可能变得更有效率。这是有道理的 — 参与者有时间了解这些公司，并且有一个强大的历史数据集合来了解公司如何定价。然而，这并不意味着市场已经变成有效市场，以至于深思熟虑的价值投资者按照严格的过程不能偶尔发现被低估的证券。回想一下，市场失效的两个主要原因：一些参与者的行为偏见和不正当激励。这些因素不可能很快发生实质性改变，因为它们本质上是结构性很强的。

7. “If you are going to live a long time, you have to keep learning. You have to keep revising your previous conclusions.”– Charlie Munger

7.“ 如果你要活很久，你必须保持学习。你必须不断修改你以前的结论。 “ - 查理 . 芒格

The hardest, and yet the most important, thing in investing is the balance between conviction and flexibility. Knowing which one is appropriate at any given time is one of the main qualities that best investors possess that sets them apart from the rest. You have to continue to learn and evolve as an investor – something that we have observed Buffett do extremely well over his career. However, there is a difference between evolution from first principles and allowing a particular market environment or situation to disproportionately affect your approach.

投资中最困难但最重要的事情是信念与灵活性之间的平衡。知道在某一个特定时间哪一个是适当的，是最好的投资者拥有的主要特质之一，这些特质使他们与其他人不同。作为投资者，你必须保持学习和进步 — 这一点我们观察到巴菲特在其职业生涯中做得非常好。但是，从最初的原则不断演变和让特定的市场环境不成比例地影响你的方法之间存在差异。

For example, in the current environment in which there are few bargains, a number of value investors have decided to “evolve” into a more qualitative, less price-sensitive approach. Their argument is that if they can find great businesses managed by great management teams with a long runway for growth, that price is of such secondary importance that one shouldn’t worry too much about valuation. Many of them are likely to discover that they are wrong. A very small handful of investors are such good business analysts and estimators of the future that they can consistently buy stocks with very high embedded expectations and still do well. Yet a far larger group fancies themselves to be able to accomplish this very difficult task. Those who are over-optimistic about their abilities are likely to come to regret that they allowed the market environment to disproportionately impact their investment process.

例如，在目前机会很少的环境下，一些价值投资者决定“演变”成采用一种更定性且对价格不敏感的方法。他们的观点是，如果他们能够找到由伟大的管理团队管理的伟大企业，并且拥有长期增长的发展轨迹，那么价格就显得次重要，因此人们不应该太在意估值。他们中的许多人可能会发现他们错了。一小部分投资者是非常优秀的业务分析师和未来的估算师，他们可以持续购买已经内嵌很高预期的股票，并且仍然表现良好。然而，更大的一个投资者群体也想象自己能够完成这项非常艰巨的任务。那些对自己的能力过于乐观的人，可能会为此后悔，他们让市场环境不成比例地影响了他们的投资过程。

8. “We don't foresee things that we don't have a lot of evidence for.” – Warren Buffett / “If we were assessing Coca Cola right after it was invented, we wouldn't have invested.”– Charlie Munger

8.“ 对于我们没有太多证据的事情，我们不做预测。 ” - 沃伦 . 巴菲特 / “ 如果我们在可口可乐被发明后 , 立即对其进行评估，我们就不会投资。 ” - 查理 . 芒格

Buffett said that what Jeff Bezos accomplished at Amazon is a miracle – and that is precisely why they didn’t invest in the company. When something is extremely unlikely and there is no historical evidence to support the belief that it’s going to succeed, it is very difficult to correctly anticipate the outcome. There are certainly those, such as some early-stage venture capitalists, who are really skilled at this type of approach. For the rest of us having substantial evidence of success to aid us in our analysis of what the future will look like is likely to improve our chances of successfully choosing the right investments.

巴菲特说，杰夫.贝佐斯在亚马逊创造的东西是一个奇迹 — 这正是他们没有投资该公司的原因。当某些事情极不可能发生，并且没有历史证据支持它会成功时，要正确预测结果是非常困难的。肯定有人可以，如一些早期风险投资家，他们真的很擅长这种方法。对于我们其他人，如果有大量成功的证据来帮助我们分析未来将会如何，可能会提高我们成功选择正确投资的机会。

9. “We don't know where interest rates are going, and the good news is that neither does anyone else, including members of the Federal Reserve. We do know that the long bonds are currently a terrible investment.” – Warren Buffett

9.“ 我们不知道利率会怎么走，好消息是任何人包括美联储成员都不知道。不过我们确实知道，长期债券目前是一笔可怕的投资。” - 沃伦 . 巴菲特

One of my competitive advantages as an investor is that I exclusively focus on investment situations where it is the microeconomics that are going to dominate the outcome. I want to be able to bring to bear my substantial experience in analyzing companies and industries rather than to allow macroeconomic factors to determine the outcome. Many like to opine about the future direction of the economy or interests rates, and yet consistent success at this endeavor has proven elusive over time. I know that these are not things that I know much about, and I choose investment opportunities accordingly.

作为一名投资者，我的竞争优势之一就是我专注于投资那些微观经济学将主导结果的机会。我希望能够带来我在分析公司和行业方面的丰富经验，而不是让宏观经济因素来决定结果。许多人喜欢对未来的经济发展方向或利率发表看法，然而在这一努力被证明难以获得持续的成功。我知道这些并不是我了解的东西，我会相应地选择投资机会。

10. “When you buy something where you are hoping that tomorrow it will be priced higher, you are counting on more people continuing to buy it, and eventually it comes to a bad end. Generally, when buying non-productive assets like cryptocurrencies, you are counting on someone else to buy it for more. It has been tried with tulips and other things in history and usually it has ended badly. If you bought gold in the time of Christ and calculate its compounded annual return until now, it is less than 1%.” – Warren Buffett

10.“ 当你购买某件你希望明天价格会更高的产品时，你会指望更多的人继续购买它，并最终导致糟糕的结局。一般来说，在购买像加密货币这样的非生产性资产时，你会指望其他人以更高的价格购买。历史上曾经尝试过郁金香和其他东西，通常结果很惨。如果你在基督时代买入黄金，并计算其复合年化回报至今，其回报不到 1 ％。” - 沃伦 . 巴菲特

The intrinsic value approach relies on estimating value based on a combination of the net present value of the future cash flow stream of a business and any excess assets not used to generate those cash flows. The dean of value investing and Buffett’s teacher, Benjamin Graham, has famously said: “In the short-term the market is a voting machine, but in the long-term it is a weighing machine.” Assets that don’t produce any cash flows and cannot do so in the future are by their very nature speculative – there is nothing to “weigh”. The only reason that their price will go up or down is the opinion of other market participants. There is no way that I know of to estimate their intrinsic value, and therefore whether they be tulips, gold, crypto-“currency” or other things that have not yet been imagined, but which derive their worth solely from the opinion of others, I plan to stay far away from them as they fall outside of my circle of competence.

内在价值方法依赖于对两样东西的结合做出评估：业务未来现金流量净现值以及未用于产生现金流量的任何额外资产。价值投资的发明人和巴菲特的老师本杰明.格雷厄姆曾经说过：“在短期内，市场是一个投票机，但从长远来看，它是一台称重机。” 不产生任何现金流并且未来也不会的资产从本质来讲就是投机 —没有什么可以“被衡量”。其价格上涨或下跌的唯一原因是其他市场参与者的看法。我无法估计它们的内在价值，因此无论它们是郁金香、黄金、加密货币还是其他尚未被想象的东西，我只能从别人的意见中推断价值，我计划远离他们，因为他们超出了我的能力范围。

愉悦资本，投资长期。