谢谢关注缓慢思考。我似乎能做到每月一更了。 :-)
原文来自Collaborative Fund的网站。我们经常把学术聪明或智商当聪明,但是真正的聪明还有很多不同的维度,比如如何形成多学科智慧,如何聪明的冒险,如何聪明的说故事等等。又如巴菲特所说,如果把聪明和智力当做发动机的马力, 真正决定输出效率的,是一个人的理性。Enjoy!
“The older I get the more I realize how many kinds of smart there are. There are a lot of kinds of smart. There are a lot of kinds of stupid, too.”
– Jeff Bezos
“
我越老越明白世上有多少种聪明。世上有很多种聪明,也有很多种愚蠢。
”
-
杰夫
.
贝索斯
The smartest investors of all time went bankrupt 20 years ago this week. They did it during the greatest bull market of all time.
20
年前的这一周,有史以来最聪明的投资人破产了。他们是在有史以来最大的牛市中做到的。
The story of Long Term Capital Management is more fascinating than sad. That investors with more academic smarts than perhaps any group before or since managed to lose everything says a lot about the limits of intelligence. It also highlights Bezos’s point: There are many kinds of smarts. We know – in hindsight – the LTCM team had epic amounts of one kind of smarts, but lacked some of the nuanced types that aren’t easily measured. Humility. Imagination. Accepting that the collective motivations of 7 billion people can’t be summarized in Excel.
长期资本管理公司(
LGTCM
)的故事远比悲伤更吸引人。这些投资人拥有的学术聪明,超过之前或之后的任何一个群体,但是他们输掉了一切,这足以说明了智力的限制。它还印证了
Bezos
的观点:聪明有很多种。我们知道
-
事后看来
- LTCM
团队拥有史诗般的一种聪明,但缺乏另外一些不易测量的微妙的聪明。谦逊。想像力。他们应该接受:
70
亿人的集体动机无法在
Excel
中进行建模。
“Smart” is the ability to solve problems. Solving problems is the ability to get stuff done. And getting stuff done requires way more than math proofs and rote memorization.
“
聪明
”
是解决问题的能力。解决问题就是完成任务的能力。完成工作需要的不仅仅是数学证明和死记硬背。
A few different kinds of smarts:
几种不同的聪明:
1. Accepting that your field is no more important or influential to other people’s decisions than dozens of other fields, pushing you to spend your time connecting the dots between your expertise and other disciplines.
接受你的领域对其他人的决策并不比其他几十个领域更重要或更有影响力,促使你花时间把你的专业知识和其他学科之间连接起来。
Being an expert in economics would help you understand the world if the world were governed purely by economics. But it’s not. It’s governed by economics, psychology, sociology, biology, physics, politics, physiology, ecology, and on and on.
如果世界完全由经济学统治,那么作为经济学专家将帮助你了解世界。但事实并非如此。它受经济学,心理学,社会学,生物学,物理学,政治学,生理学,生态学以及其他学科的支配。
Patrick O’Shaughnessy wrote an email to his book club years ago:
几年前
Patrick O'Shaughnessy
给他的读书俱乐部写了一封电子邮件:
Consistent with my growing belief that it is more productive to read around one’s field than in one’s field, there are no investing books on this list.
我越来越相信阅读领域周边的书籍比一个领域内的书籍更有效率,所以这个阅读名单上没有投资书籍。
There is so much smarts in that sentence. Someone with B+ intelligence in several fields likely has a better grasp of how the world works than someone with A+ intelligence in one field but an ignorance of that field just being one piece of a complicated puzzle.
这句话里充满了聪明。在多个不同领域中具有
B +
智慧的人可能比在一个领域中具有
A +
智慧但不知道该领域只是复杂难题一部分的人,
更好地掌握世界是如何工作的。
2. A barbell personality with confidence on one side and paranoia on the other; willing to make bold moves but always within the context of making survival the top priority.
一个杠铃人格特征的人,一端是信心,另一端是恐惧
;
愿意采取大胆举措,但总是在把生存作为首要任务。
A few thoughts on this:
关于这一点的一些想法:
“The only unforgivable sin in business is to run out of cash.” – Harold Geneen
“
商业中唯一不可饶恕的罪恶就是花光现金。
” - Harold Geneen
“To make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that is just plain foolish. If you risk something important to you for something unimportant to you, it just doesn’t make any sense.” – Buffett on the LTCM meltdown.
“
为了赚取他们没有但也不需要的钱,他们把自己已经拥有而且需要的钱赌上去了。这简直是愚蠢的。如果你拿重要的东西去冒险获取一些不重要的东西,这没有任何意义。
“ -
巴菲特对
LTCM
崩溃的评论。
“I think we’ve always been afraid of going out of business.” – Michael Moritz explaining Sequoia’s four decades of success.
“
我认为我们一直都害怕破产。
” -
迈克尔
.
莫里茨解释红杉的四十年成功。
A key here is realizing there are smart people who may perform better than you this year or next, but without a paranoid room for error they are more likely to get wiped out, or give up, when they eventually come across something they didn’t expect. Paranoia gives your bold bets a fighting chance at surviving long enough to grow into something meaningful.
这里的关键是要意识到总有聪明的人可能今年或明年的业绩比你更好,但如果没有对出错给予恐惧和敬畏,
当他们最终遇到没有预期到的事情发生的时候,
他们更有可能被淘汰或抛弃。恐惧为你的大胆下注提供了存活足够长的机会从而成长为有意义的东西。
3. Understanding that Ken Burns is more popular than history textbooks because facts don’t have any meaning unless people pay attention to them, and people pay attention to, and remember, good stories.
明白
Ken Bruns
比历史教科书更受欢迎,因为事实没有任何意义,除非人们关注它们,人们喜欢关注并记住好的故事。
A good storyteller with a decent idea will always have more influence than someone with a great idea who hopes the facts will speak for themselves. People often wonder why so many unthoughtful people end up in government. The answer is easy:
一个有着好想法并且会讲故事的人总会比一个有好想法但希望希望事实能说明一切的人更有影响力。人们常常想知道为什么这么多无知的人最终会进入政府。答案很简单:
Politicians do not win elections to make policies; they make policies to win elections. What’s most persuasive to voters isn’t whether an idea is right, but whether it narrates a story that confirms what they see and believe in the world.
政治家赢得选举不是为了制定政策
;
他们制定政策是为了赢得选举。对选民最有说服力的不是一个政策想法是否正确,而是它是否叙述了一个故事,这个故事印证了他们所看到和相信的世界。
It’s hard to overstate this: The main use of facts is their ability to give stories credibility. But the stories are always what persuade. Focusing on the message as much as the substance is not only a unique skill; it’s an easy one to overlook.
实际的情况是:事实的主要用途只是给故事赋予可信度。但这些故事才是人信服的原因。不光专注于信息而且专注本质是一种独特的技能
;
这是一个容易忽视的问题。
4. Humility not in the idea that you could be wrong, but given how little of the world you’ve experienced you are likely wrong, especially in knowing how other people think and make decisions.
谦虚不是因为你可能会出错,而是鉴于你所经历的世界很少,你大概率会错,特别是在了解其他人如何思考和做出决定的时候。
Academically smart people – at least those measured that way – have a better chance of being quickly ushered into jobs with lots of responsibility. With responsibility they’ll have to make decisions that affect other people. But since many of the smarties experienced a totally different career path than less intelligent people, they can have a hard time relating to how others think – what they’ve experienced, how they see the world, how they solve problems, what kind of issues they face, what they’re motivated by, etc. The clearest example of this is the brilliant business professor whose brain overlaps maybe a millimeter or two with the guy successfully running a local dry cleaning business. Many CEOs, managers, politicians, and regulators have the same flaw.
学术上聪明的人
-
至少那些以此方式衡量的人
-
有更好的机会被赋予有很多责任的工作。这些责任导致他们做出的决定会影响其他人。但是,由于许多聪明人经历了与不那么聪明的人完全不同的职业道路,他们可能很难理解到其他人的思考方式
-
他们经历过什么,他们如何看待世界,他们如何解决问题,他们面对什么样的问题,他们的动机是什么,等等。最明显的例子就是杰出的商业教授,他的大脑与成功经营当地干洗业务的人几乎没有任何交集。许多
CEO
,经理人,政治家和监管者都有同样的缺陷。
A subtle form of smarts is recognizing that the intelligence that gave you the power to make decisions affecting other people does not mean you understand or relate to those other people. In fact, you very likely don’t. So you go out of your way to listen and empathize with others who have had different experiences than you, despite having the authority to make decisions for them granted to you by your GPA.
一种微妙的聪明是认识到,给你带来做出影响其他人的权力的智慧并不意味着你理解或能认同与其他人。事实上,你很可能做不到。因此,你需要走出自己的方式,去倾听和同情其他与你有不同经历的人的想法,
尽管你拥有
GPA成绩
给你带来做决定的权力。
5. Convincing yourself and others to forgo instant gratification, often through strategic distraction.
通常通过策略性的转移注意力,来说服自己和他人放弃即时的满足感。
Everyone knows the famous marshmallow test, where kids who could delay eating one marshmallow in exchange for two later on ended up better off in life. But the most important part of the test is often overlooked. The kids exercising patience often didn’t do it through sheer will. Most kids will take the first marshmallow if they sit there and stare at it. The patient ones delayed gratification by distracting themselves. They hid under a desk. Or sang a song. Or played with their shoes. Walter Mischel, the psychologist behind the famous test, later wrote:
每个人都知道有名的棉花糖测试,在那里孩子们如果可以延迟吃一个棉花糖,就以换来后面获得两个棉花糖的更好的生活。但是测试中最重要的部分经常被忽视。有耐力的孩子经常没有通过纯粹的意志去做。大多数孩子如果坐在那里盯着它,就会吃第一个棉花糖。有耐力的孩通过分散注意力来延迟满足感。他们躲在桌子底下。或者唱一首歌。或者用他们的鞋子玩。设计这个测试的心理学家沃尔特
·
米切尔后来写道:
The single most important correlate of delay time with youngsters was attention deployment, where the children focused their attention during the delay period: Those who attended to the rewards, thus activating the hot system more, tended to delay for a shorter time than those who focused their attention elsewhere, thus activating the cool system by distracting themselves from the hot spots.
决定青少年延迟时间的单一最重要的相关因素是注意力部署,即孩子们在延迟期间把注意力放在哪里:那些把注意力放到奖励上的人,从而更多地激活热系统的人,相对于哪些把注意力投射到其他地方从而通过分散热点来激活冷系统的人,能坚持的延迟时间要短。
Delayed gratification isn’t about surrounding yourself with temptations and hoping to say no to them. No one is good at that. The smart way to handle long-term thinking is enjoying what you’re doing day to day enough that the terminal rewards don’t constantly cross your mind.
延迟满足感并不是让自己被诱惑所包围,然后希望自己对他们说不。没有人擅长这一点。形成长期思维的聪明方法是享受你日常所做的事情,不让最后的激励跑到你的脑子里来。
最后,如果你是不一样聪明的创业者,来找我们。