【中金科技】丘钛科技（01478.HK）：上调目标价至22港元；看好2021年摄像模组出货与毛利率表现

科技硬件FLAG · 公众号 · · 2021-03-29 10:41

正文

2H20 net profit beat our forecast by 7%

2H20 revenue increased 6% YoY to Rmb8.60bn, missing our forecast by 15%, mainly due to lower-than-expected ASP in CCM; net profit rose 40% YoY to Rmb505mn, 7% higher than our expectation. GPM rose 2.7ppt YoY and 3.8ppt HoH to 12.1% in 2H20, reaching a new high.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM and raise TP to HK$22.0, offering 48.6% upside. We believe the strong shipment and GPM in CCM can mitigate the ASP pressure caused by Huawei’s weakness in 2021.

Trends to watch

Strong shipment and GPM in CCM to mitigate ASP weakness . For 2021, management guided the firm’s CCM shipment will increase no less than 30% YoY, though Qtech recorded only a 3% YoY decline in shipment in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. GPM rose 2.7ppt YoY and 3.8ppt HoH to 12.1% in 2H20 thanks to efficiency improvement and high utilization rate. We believe this trend may continue in 2021. However, due to Huawei’s weakness, Qtech’s ASP in 2H20 declined 18% HoH to Rmb35.1, which caught the market’s attention. From our perspective, Qtech’s ASP may return to YoY growth in 2H21 since more high SPECS project may start in 2H20. For 2021,we still expect 41% YoY growth in CCM revenue and 0.5ppt growth in CCM GPM driven by product upgrade and market share growth.

Under-screen fingerprint recognition modules (FPM) mayremain weak in 2021. For 2021, Qtech guided 30% YoY growth in shipment in the FPM business. However, the ASP trend may still have downside in 2021 as the adoption rate of under-screen FPM (with high ASP) is still low. We expect 10% YoY growth in FPM revenue in 2021, with a -15% ASP decline to be mitigated by 30% shipment growth on a YoY basis.

New automobile business and A-share listing may benefit valuation. Qtech plans to expand its CCM business to automobile and IoT equipment. With its plan to be listed in the A-sharemarket, we believe its valuation may see upside.

Financials and valuation

We raise our 2021 and 2022 earnings forecasts 1.1%/1.3% to Rmb1,326mn/Rmb1,676mn, as GPM exceeding our expectations. The stock is trading at 11.2x 2021 and 8.9x 2022P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM but raise our TP 15.8% to HK$22.00 (16.7x 2021 P/Eand 13.2x 2022 P/E), offering 48.6% upside, as we think new businesses like automobile may be positive for valuation.

Risks : impact of COVID-19 on smartphone demand.

Figure 1: Earnings forecast review