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【中金科技】小米集团(01810.HK):手机和IoT智能硬件的大年;重申跑赢行业评级

科技硬件FLAG  · 公众号  ·  · 2021-03-25 09:41

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4Q20 results in line with our forecast
Revenue at Xiaomi Corp rose 24.8% YoY in 4Q20 to Rmb70.5bn, missing our forecast by 4% due to weak internet of things (IoT) shipment. Non-GAAP net profit rose 36%YoY to Rmb3.2bn, in-line with our forecast. GPM increased 2.2ppt YoY (2.0ppt QoQ) in 4Q20 to 16.1%, the highest figure since 2017. We believe that 2021 will be abig year for Xiaomi’s smartphone and artificial intelligence +IoT (AIoT) devices. With the shipment of hardware in 2021, we think that internet services will be back to strong growth in 2022.
Trends to watch
Smartphones: Strong growth to continue. Smartphone shipment at Xiaomi rose 32% YoY in 4Q20 to 43.3mn, outperforming the global smartphone market, which rose 4.3%. ASP rose 4%YoY and GPM climbed 2.1ppt QoQ to 10.5% due to better product mix, as shipment improved in the premium-end market. We still expect Xiaomi to ship 198mn smartphones globally in 2021, with revenue growing 45% YoY, thanks to a better competitive landscape following Huawei’s decline and signs that COVID-19 will ease globally. We now forecast smartphone revenue to grow 45% YoY in 2021 with ASP rising 8% YoY.
IoT and lifestyle products: AIoT to be a key business in 2021. Xiaomi’s IoT revenue increased only 9% in 2020, as it was negatively affected by COVID-19. We believe this section will return to strong growth in 2021, with more products – such as TVs and IoT small home appliances – entering the overseas market. We still expect revenue in 2021 and 2022 to grow 38% and 48% YoY.
Internet: Weak revenue growth but GPM strong in 2021; positive on 2022. Internet services revenue rose only 8% YoY in 4Q20 to Rmb6.2bn. Given weak growth in low margin businesses, we cutour 2021 and 2022 internet revenue forecasts 18% and 15% to Rmb27.3bn and Rmb36.3bn. We raise our GPM forecasts 4ppt and 5ppt, expecting the high GPM advertising business to make a larger revenue contribution. We expect internet services to return to 33% growth in 2022, as MAU and ARPU should return to growth in 2H21.
Financials and valuation
We trim our 2021 and 2022 revenue forecasts 1% and 2%. The stock is trading at 28.6x 2021and 22.6x 2022 non-GAAP P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and our TP of HK$34.00 (38.9x and 30.7x 2021 and 2022 non-GAAP P/E), offering 36.0% upside from the current price.
Risks
COVID-19 may still affect smartphone sales and demand.

Figure 1: 4Q20 and 2020 review
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 2: Earning forecastrevisions
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 3: Earning forecast revisions, by segment
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 4: CICC estimates vs. market consensus
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info,CICC Research

Figure 5: SOTP valuation
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 6: P/E band
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Figure 7: P/B band
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Figure 8: 4Q20 global smartphone shipments
Source: IDC, CICC Research

Figure 9: Global smartphone marketshare trends
Source: IDC, CICC Research

Figure 10: 4Q20 China smartphone shipments
Source: IDC, CICC Research

Figure 11: Xiaomi - TV businessgrowth
Source: AVC, CICC Research

Figure 12: MIUI app store MAU trend
Source: QuestMobile, CICC Research

文章来源

本文 摘自: 2021 3 25 日已经发布的 Xiaomi Corp (01810.HK): 2021 to be big year for smartphone, IoT devices; reiterate OUTPERFORM
陈旭东 SAC 执证编号 :S0080519120006 SFC CE Ref:BPH392
胡誉镜 SAC 执证编号 :S0080517100004 SFC CE Ref :BMN486
彭  虎 SAC 执证编号 :S0080521020001

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