2020 IC Outlook

Research · 公众号 · · 2020-02-25 08:30

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After a downturn in 2019, the semiconductor and equipment industries looked promising at the start of 2020.

半导体和设备行业在经历了2019年的低迷之后，在2020年初看起来充满希望。

In 2019, the downturn was primarily due to the memory markets, namely DRAM and NAND. Both DRAM and NAND saw lackluster demand and falling prices last year. At the start of 2020, though, the memory markets were beginning to recover.

2019年的下滑主要是由于内存市场，即DRAM和NAND。去年DRAM和NAND需求疲软，价格下跌。但是，在2020年初，存储器市场开始复苏。

Unlike memory, the logic and foundry markets were somewhat stronger in the latter part of 2019. Robust demand for foundry and logic spilled over into 2020.

与内存不同，逻辑和晶圆代工市场在2019年下半年有所增长。对晶圆代工和逻辑的强劲需求持续到2020年。

Demand for analog, power semis and RF were lackluster in 2019. Many of those vendors were looking for renewed growth in 2020.

在2019年，对模拟，功率半导体和RF的需求疲软。许多销售商都在寻求2020年的新增长。

Then, not long ago, the coronavirus in China hit the market. The pandemic has expanded and spread, causing some turbulence in the supply chain. Companies have lowered their forecasts.

然后，不久前，中国的冠状病毒疫情爆发，大流行已经蔓延和扩散，在供应链中引起了一些波动，一些公司降低了他们的预测。

So what does this all mean for the IC market? To get a handle on the market, Semiconductor Engineering has reached out to various market researchers. Here’s the latest forecasts from researchers:

那么这对IC市场意味着什么呢？为了理解市场，半导体工程网（Semiconductor Engineering）已经联系了相关市场研究人员，下面是各研究人员的最新预测：

Gartner高德纳
2019 Semiconductor market—$418 billion (-11.9%)

2019年半导体市场4,180亿美元（-11.9％）

2020 Semiconductor growth forecast—$470 billion (+12.5%)

2020年半导体增长预测4,700亿美元（+ 12.5％）

2019 Semi CapEx—$96 billion (-11.9%)

2019年半导体资本支出960亿美元（-11.9％）

2020 Semi CapEx forecast—$92.5 billion (-3.6%)

2020年半导体资本支出预测925亿美元（-3.6％）

Over the last year, the volatility has revolved around the memory market, according to Bob Johnson, an analyst at Gartner.

高德纳(Gartner)分析师鲍勃·约翰逊(Bob Johnson)表示，过去一年，内存市场一直存在波动性。

Meanwhile, the worldwide wafer fab equipment (WFE) market is expected to reach $53.6 billion in 2020, down 1% over 2019, according to Johnson. “Intel has announced even higher capital spending plans for this year. So that may put capital spending nearly flat this year,” he said.

与此同时，全球晶圆制造设备(WFE)市场预计在2020年达到536亿美元，比2019年下降1%。“英特尔宣布了今年更高的资本支出计划。因此，这可能会使今年的资本支出几乎持平，”他说。

What about the impact of the coronavirus? “As for the effects of the coronavirus, we’re looking at it, but haven’t yet reached a conclusion as to what its effects will be,” Johnson said. “There are so many inputs and uncertainties, and the big question is whether the supply chain disruptions we hear about will be permanent or temporary, and what will their impact be on the overall year. There is also the big question about what this will do to overall electronics demand in China, especially on phones.

冠状病毒的影响如何？“至于冠状病毒的影响，我们正在观察，但还没有得出结论，它会有什么影响，”约翰逊说。“有如此多的投入和不确定性，最大的问题是我们听到的供应链中断是永久性的还是暂时性的，以及它们对全年的影响。还有一个大问题是，这将对中国的整体电子产品需求产生什么影响，尤其是在手机方面。

“However, I can be pretty certain that it won’t be positive,” he said. “So for right now, you can say that we’re definitely evaluating the projected impacts of the coronavirus on our forecasts, and that it definitely increases the downside risks.”

“然而，我可以非常肯定这不会是积极的，”他说。“所以现在，你可以说我们肯定在评估冠状病毒对我们预测的影响，它肯定会增加下行风险。

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IBS
2019 Semiconductor market—$400.9 billion (-16.1%)

2019年半导体市场4,009亿美元（-16.1％）

2020 Semiconductor growth forecast—$432.75 billion (+7.95%)

2020年半导体增长预测4327.5亿美元（+ 7.95％）

“The key reason for growth in 2020 is increased gigabyte prices of DRAM and NAND, compared to the previous decline in gigabyte prices,” said Handel Jones, chief executive of IBS.

IBS首席执行官汉德尔·琼斯（Handel Jones）表示，与之前的每千兆字节价格下跌相比，2020年增长的主要原因是DRAM和NAND的每千兆字节价格上涨。

The coronavirus will impact the market. “The most likely scenario is now a 0.7% decline in the semiconductor market in 2020 over 2019,” Jones said.

冠状病毒将影响市场，最可能的情况是，2020年半导体市场将比2019年下降0.7％，据IBS称，2020智能手机的销量有可能减少1亿部，笔记本电脑的销量有可能减少3000万部。

There is also a chance it could reduce the volume of smartphones by 100 million units and reduction in volume of notebook computers by 30 million units, according to IBS.

根据IBS的数据，它也有可能将智能手机的销量减少1亿台，笔记本电脑的销量减少3000万台。

2020年下半年的需求复苏不足以弥补2020年上半年的下降，”他说。“如果美国和中国之间的贸易争端不会进一步扰乱供应链，2021年半导体市场的增长将是积极的。”

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IC Insights
2019 Semiconductor market—$442.3 billion (-12%)

2019年半导体市场4,423亿美元（-12％）
2020 Semiconductor growth forecast—$473.9 billion (+7%)

2020 IC Outlook

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