The beginning of the end.
俄罗斯，我为你担忧
译者：武守晗
校对：唐 萧
策划：唐 萧
The struggle for Russia is just beginning
俄罗斯的斗争才刚刚开始
Although Vladimir Putin is at the height of his power, Russia’s elites are already jockeying for position
尽管普京继续稳坐“铁王座”，但俄国精英们觊觎此位已久
本文选自 The Economist | 取经号原创翻译
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The ballot-stuffing, blatant and in full view of the cameras, only underlined Vladimir Putin’s
impunity
. The official result on March 18th gave him 77% of the vote, on a turnout of almost 70%. But the unofficial one would not have been very different. The election was not a genuine exercise of choice so much as a ritual acknowledgment of who holds power. After 18 years, Mr Putin is not just the president but the tsar.
能够在镜头之下公然伪造选票，只说明了对普京
违法不究
。3月18日，普京以官方统计近77％的得票率胜选，此次选举民众的投票率接近70％。同时，非官方统计也不会有很大的不同。这场选举称不上民众真正的选择，只不过是一场承认谁拥有权力的仪式。18年过去了，普京不仅是俄罗斯的总统，更是俄国的沙皇。
impunity
/ ɪmˈpjuːnətɪ; ɪmˋpjunətɪ/ n (idm 习语) with impunity with freedom from punishment or injury 不受惩罚或伤害
As important as last weekend’s vote, however, is the struggle to come. That will be over the future of Russia. And, as
impregnable
as Mr Putin looks, it begins today.
然而，同选举投票一样重要的是未来的斗争。这将决定俄罗斯的未来。普京看起来
坚不可摧
，这场斗争已经开始。
impregnable
/ ɪmˈpregnəbl; ɪmˋprɛɡnəbl/ adj so strong that it cannot be overcome or broken down 无法征服的; 压不倒摧不垮的
The gun has fired
战斗已经打响
Mr Putin cannot legally run again for president in 2024. Drawing on a mix of persuasion and brutal repression, he could force through changes to the constitution to let himself stand again. Or he may retire from his daily duties instead,in the hope of exerting power from behind the scenes. But then again, if Mr Putin starts to show a lack of resolve or cunning he could find himself pushed aside at the end of his term.
2024年后普京在不能再度竞选总统。但凭借游说各方势力和手中的权力，他可以通过强势修宪来继续掌权退出日常工作但从幕后发号施令。但是，如果普京开始表现出缺乏决心或狡黠多端，他可能会在任期结束时发现自己被晾到一边。
Already the elites in Russia are jockeying for position. The outcome is highly uncertain. At worst, the country could yet embrace an even more extreme form of the nationalism that has defined the politics of Mr Putin. He portrays Russia as assailed by enemies, and argues that it has nothing to learn from foreign ideas like human rights and open democracy. That view has already fuelled a new cold war and led to rows over manipulated elections and political assassinations abroad. In Crimea, Ukraine and Syria it fuelled real wars.
俄罗斯的精英们已经在争夺权力。一切都高度地不确定。在最坏的情况下，俄罗斯甚至可能会走向更为极端的民族主义道路，而民族主义正是普京的施政中心。在他的描述下，俄罗斯遭受着国外敌对势力的攻击，人权、开放民主这样的外国观念丝毫不值得学习。这些观点已经引发了一场新的冷战，导致俄罗斯在国外干预他国选举、策划政治暗杀。在克里米亚、乌克兰和叙利亚，普京导演了真正的战争。
But there is an alternative. A rising elite in its 30s brought on, in part, by Mr Putin himself yearns for Russia to be a more “normal” country. For them much about his rule is archaic. They cringe at his conservative agenda, his traditional values, Orthodoxy and isolation.
但俄罗斯还另有选择。30多岁的少壮精英阶层正在崛起，他们的崛起的部分原因来自于普京对俄罗斯成为一个更“正常”的国家的殷切希望。对精英阶层而言，普京的统治很陈旧。他们对他的保守议程、传统价值观、正统观念和孤立主义感到难为情。
This new generation will play a central part in shaping what comes after Mr Putin’s next term. Our briefing this week describes its members, who range from regional governors and businesspeople to independent politicians. They have their differences and their rivalries, naturally, but they also have more in common with each other than they do with the elders who are their bosses. They tend to see the end of the cold war in the 1990s not as Russia’s loss, but as a victory for common sense. Well-travelled and informed, they do not suffer from the inferiority complex that led Mr Putin’s generation to copy the West and, later, lash out against it. Their parents grew up with shortages and measure success in terms of money. They take material comfort for granted. Having watched as public life has been corrupted by Mr Putin’s lies, propaganda and graft, they see the benefits of rules, laws and transparency.
新崛起的精英阶层将在2024年普京卸任后对国家走向发挥核心作用。这期的简报介绍了这一阶层的成员，包括地区长官、商人和独立政客。他们自然有分歧和对抗，但他们之间的共识大于他们与年长的上级之间的共识。他们更倾向于认为20世纪90年代冷战的结束不是俄罗斯的失败，而是常识的胜利。他们见多识广，因此并没有受到普京这一代人经历的自卑情结的困扰——后者因此先是照搬西方，而后又强烈抨击西方。他们的父母在物资匮乏的环境下长大，随后成功致富。他们认为物质财富带来的舒适是理所应当的。目睹了公众生活已被普京的谎言、宣传和贪污所腐化，他们看到了规则、法律和提高透明度的好处。
During the next six years of Mr Putin’s presidency, this elite will in every walk of life. Think-tanks and journalism increasingly reflect their ideas. Six of Russia’s 85 governors are under 40. Mr Putin has started installing young technocrats in the Kremlin and government ministries.
在普京担任总统的下一个六年任期中，精英阶层将在各行各业为自己正名。智囊团和新闻报道越来越反映他们的想法。俄罗斯的85位州长中有6位还不到40岁。普京已经开始在克里姆林宫和政府部门安插年轻的技术专家。
He may hope that the technocrats’ loyalty will preserve his legacy. But Russia lacks the institutions that transfer power peacefully from one leader to the next. A departing leader cannot be confident that he and his family will be safe. A new leader cannot use the debased currency of elections to establish his legitimacy. Thus, even those Mr Putin favours may well end up rejecting him, rather as he consolidated his position by rejecting his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, who first brought him to power.
普京这么做，可能是希望借助技术官僚的忠诚来继续他的政治遗产。但是俄罗斯缺乏权力和平交接的机制。离任的领导人不能确保他和他的家人的安全。新领导人不能使用“区区选举”来树立其合法性。因此，即使是普京的亲信也可能最终抛弃他，就一如18年前，时任总统叶利钦一手提拔普京上位，而后普京却踩着叶利钦的肩膀巩固了自己的权位。
There is no guarantee that the coming generation will succeed in making Russia more normal. Russian history is shot through with failed attempts to find a settlement with the West—in which the country has veered between aspiration and hostility. The fortress mentality that Mr Putin has fostered has instilled feelings of jealousy, resentment and victimisation. The main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who was barred from last weekend’s election, has said that his biggest enemy is not Mr Putin and his cronies, but the debilitating conviction among ordinary Russians of their own powerlessness. If the security services attempt to exploit fear in order to cling to their privileges and their power, the Russian people may behave as their willing accomplices.
新崛起的精英阶层能否使俄罗斯成功走上正轨，还是一个未知数。历史上，俄罗斯曾多次试图与西方国家达成和解，但因其态度暧昧不明，在拥抱与敌意之间摇摆不定，和解均以失败告终。普京构筑的堡垒心态使民众形成了嫉妒、怨恨情绪和受迫害的心理。俄罗斯主要反对派领导人阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼被禁止参加选举，他说他最大的敌人不是普京和他的亲信，而是普通俄罗斯人越来越觉得自己国家事务中无足轻重。如果安全部门试图利用人民的恐惧来维护他们的特权和权力，那么俄罗斯人可能会自愿当他们的帮凶。
It’s everyone’s business
多赢局面
The struggle for Russia will be determined inside Russia. But the West has a part to play. It is worth remembering how the Soviet Union was undermined not just by the military might of the West, but also by its economic, cultural and moral appeal. It took decades for communism to
crumble
, but today’s Russia is economically weak and Mr Putin has a greater need to derive legitimacy from conflict at home and abroad.
俄罗斯斗争的前景当然是由俄罗斯国内决定的。但西方仍会发挥重要影响力。 要知道，彼时的苏联之所以在与西方的对峙中败下阵来，不仅是受到其军事力量的打击，还被其经济、文化和道德优势挫败。 西方花了数十年才得以让共产主义
崩溃
，但今天的俄罗斯经济疲软，普京也更需要从国内外的冲突中获得执政合法性，形势不容乐观。
crumble
/ ˈkrʌmbl; ˋkrʌmbl/ gradually deteriorate or come to an end 渐渐垮掉; 走向末路
Even as the West targets him and his cronies with sanctions and protests at his aggressions, it therefore needs a counter-narrative for the Russian people. The aim should be to remain engaged with ordinary Russians while containing Mr Putin’s aggression, just as Western diplomats distinguished between the Soviet regime and its citizens. Even as the Kremlin restricts Russian contact with the West, the West should encourage it.
在西方对普京及其盟友发起制裁和游行，以抗议其挑衅行为时，相应地就需要对俄罗斯人民进行反宣传。其目的是在遏制普京侵略的同时继续与普通的俄罗斯民众交好，就像西方外交人员把苏联政权和其公民区别开来一样。即使克里姆林宫限制俄罗斯民众与西方的接触，西方也应该鼓励交往。
That will not be easy. It is hard to punish Mr Putin without alienating all Russians. Cultivating the new elite could justify a purge by their enemies. And the West is less of a model than it was. Disillusion with the European Union and strife in America over the presidency of Donald Trump, which Mr Putin does his best to foment, have tarnished the West’s appeal.
做到这点并不容易。很难单独惩罚普京而不牵连到普通俄罗斯人。普京在培植新的精英阶层，实现借刀杀人的目的。西方的模范作用已不复当年。人们对欧盟的失望和美国在特朗普治下的纷争都给西方的美好形象抹了黑。普京是特朗普上台的有力推手。
