1月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数

一、指数概览

2017年1月，万事达卡财新BBD中国的新经济指数（NEI）为28.7，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为28.7%。该值较2016年12月的32.5下降3.8个百分点，是新经济指数发布以来下降程度最大的一次（图1）。NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见第二部分和《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》。

二、主要分项指标

NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年1月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入和科技投入的下降。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过上个月的上升后，本月新经济在资本投入指数中的比重全面下滑，下降9个百分点至29.8（图2）。科技投入指数同样有所下降，回到了2016年3月水平，上月为34.1，本月为27.2。劳动力投入指数上升至28.6，上月为26.0，中止了该指数从2016年3月以来的下跌趋势。 

劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为1.1，-3.1，和-1.7个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年1月NEI变化的贡献值为-3.8（图3）。

分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年1月为总指数贡献了9.8个百分点，但比2016年12月快速下滑。生物医药产业贡献排名第二，本月贡献6.9个百分点。新材料产业的贡献排名第三，本月贡献6.1个百分点（图4）。

三、新经济就业

2017年1月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略有上升，为8799元每月（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。

2017年1月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例出现了显著上升，从24.9%上升为27.1%，新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重同样上升，从27.0%升至30.2%。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平亦有上升，1月新经济入职工资 “溢价”为11.3%（图6）。

四、春节效应

从2016年9月起，新经济指数开始持续挖掘大数据中隐含的一些领先指标。本月恰逢丁酉年春节，我们对2017年春节前的数据进行一系列对比，观察各城市与各行业的变化。为了定义上的方便，我们抽取2017年春节前的30天进行数据观察，并且将春节前15天——即“春运”开始的时间作为断点，比较在春运前后劳动力市场出现的变化。

首先，观察不同行业在春运前后的工资变化，见图7。下表左方显示2017年春运前后入职工资增加最快的15个行业，这些行业可能属于外来人口比例较高，同时需求弹性较低的行业，当农民工回乡时，工资上升相对较快。同时，下表右方的行业或者其就业受春运影响较低，或者是需求受春运影响下降，劳动力招聘工资呈下降趋势。

其次，我们对不同城市进行类似分析，见图8。可以看到在图左方，连云港、海口、中山、宁波、金华等城市受到春运的影响较大，工资上升很快；而在图右方，泰安、佛山、潍坊、太原和保定等城市等受到春运的影响则较小，他们的工资甚至出现了负增长。

最后，我们使用航班大数据计算不同城市在春运前后的流量数据，见图9。图左方显示，宁波、温州和广州等地春运时每天航班流出人口是春运前每天航班流出人口的1.2倍以上，属于外来人口从业占比较高的地区。图右方显示，福州、温州和海口等地春运时每天航班到达人口是春运前每天航班到达人口的1.2倍以上，属于较多本市人口在外就业的城市。注意到一些城市比如福州、温州同时出现在左右两个表单上，这意味着该城市不仅有较多外来人口，同时也有大量本地人口在外就业。

五、城市新经济排名

2017年1月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、重庆、广州与深圳排名前五。重庆在连续一年的攀升中，从排名第九升至排名第三。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。

图11是从2016年7月到2017年1月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为杭州、北京、上海、深圳、广州。

更多咨询敬请联络:

万事达卡

公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇

电话：+86-10-8519-9304

电邮：[email protected]

财新智库

财新智库莫尼塔董事长兼首席经济学家 沈明高

电话：+86-10-8518-8170 转8618

电邮：[email protected]

公关总监 马玲

电话：+86-10-8590-5204

电邮：[email protected]

BBD（数联铭品）

BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁

电话：+86-28-65290823

电邮：[email protected] 

信息图形设计 邬忆

电话：+86-28-65290823

电邮：[email protected]

版权声明

万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。

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关于BBD：

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 报告英文版：

January 2017

MasterCard Caixin BBD China NewEconomy Index

Released:10:00am Beijing Time February-02-2017

In an effort to increase transparency on the structural changes underway in China’s economy, the MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index (NEI) was established. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publicly released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time. 

Overview

In January 2017, the MasterCard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 28.7, indicating that the New Economy inputs accounted for 28.7% of overall economic input activities that month. This reading recorded a 380 basis point decrease from December, the largest single month drop since the release of the NEI (Chart 1).

Primary Inputs

The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. Among the primary inputs, the increase in the January NEI reading came primarily from a rise in capital investment. In 2H16, capital investment has fluctuated greatly, with a substantial decline to 29.8 in January after a 38.8 reading in December, down by 9 ppts (Chart 2). The technology input reading decreased to 27.2 from 34.1. The labor input index increased to 28.6, up from 26.0 last month, ending a trend of continuous decline since March and marks the lowest reading since the NEI has been released. 

Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 1.1, -3.1 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net result for the NEI was a 3.8 pp decrease in January from December figures (Chart 3).

Looking at the sub-sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 9.8 pp to the NEI, a noticeable drop from December figures. Biotech moved into second, contributing 6.9 pp. The third largest contributor was Advanced Materials with 6.1 pp (Chart 4).

NewEconomy Employment

In January 2017, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 8,799 per month, an increase from December figures (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands. 

Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.1% of total hiring in January, a significant increase from the 24.9% figure in December. The compensation share of New Economy sectors increased, from 27.0% to 30.2%. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 11.3% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).

Labor Demand

From September onwards, we have used new data sources to examine several leading indicators in labor demand. This month, we observe changes in various cities and industries in the data prior to the Spring Festival Holiday. To facilitate the definition of the data we use, we divide the 30 days before Spring Festival into two periods: the first and second 15 days, as the official Spring Festival Travel Rush starts 15 days before the holiday. 

First,we observe the wage changes in different industries before and after SpringFestival Travel Rush (Chart 7). The right hand side of the chart highlights the15 industries observed the fastest rise of entry level wages. These areindustries that may have a large supply of migrant workers with low demandelasticity. Relatively speaking, the left hand side of the chart lists those industrieswith wage decline. 

Second, we conduct a similar analysis in different cities (Chart 8). On the left side, Lianyungang, Haikou, Zhongshan, Ningbo, Jinhua and other cities had observed rapid wage increase while Tai’an, Foshan, Weifang, Taiyuan and Baoding, among other cities saw wage decline. 

Finally, we use flight data to calculate before and after Spring Festival Travel Rush among cities (Chart 9). The left hand side of the chart indiactes that Ningbo, Wenzhou and Guangzhou, among others, have seen pre-Spring Festival departures approximately 1.2 times more than post-Spring Festival departures as they have a high proportion of non-local employment. The right hand side of the chart highlights Fuzhou, Wenzhou and Haikou, among other cities, that pre-Spring Festival arrival flights exceed post-Spring Festival arrivals by approximately 1.2 times. It is worth noting that some cities, including Fuzhou and Wenzhou, appear on both left and right hand sides. This indicates that there are both a large amount of non-local workers and natives who work outside of the city.

City Rankings of the New Economy

Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The rankings are based on a moving average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.

When looking at the city NEI rankings based on average NEI from July 2016 to January 2017, the top five are Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou (Chart 11).

For further information please contact:

MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel: +86-10-8519-9304
Email: [email protected]

Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Minggao Shen, President & Chief Economist
Tel: +86-10-8104-8016
Email: [email protected]

Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel: +86-10-8590-5204
Email: [email protected]

BBD
Chen Qin, Chief Economist 
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Email：[email protected]

Wu Yi, Data & ChartDesigner

Tel:+86-28-65290823

Email: [email protected]

The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.

About Caixin

Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.

About MasterCard

MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.

About BBD (Business Big Data)

BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.

（来源：财新网）