上周四的英国大选，正在逐渐退热，留下特雷莎·梅领导下的保守党如履薄冰地艰难支撑起建立“少数派政府”的决定，以及工党、苏格兰民族党尚未完全放弃的虎视眈眈。
一个周末之间，保守党都经历了些什么？梅姨向党内资深议员道歉；保守党宣布同北爱尔兰民主统一党（DUP）以“confidence and supply”形式合作后，又被天空新闻爆出合作协议尚未谈妥；梅姨两大资深参谋Nick Timothy和Fiona Hill同一天内辞职，而“老对手”迈克尔·高夫却重回内阁……
然后今天又传出了原定6月19日的女王演讲（Queen's Speech）将被“延迟数日”的消息。
（原图来自英国电讯报）
今天中午，BBC在官方网站发表了一篇叫做《特雷莎·梅：唐宁街10号的囚犯》（Theresa May: The prisoner of No 10）的文章，作者是BBC Radio 4著名节目《The World This Weekend》的资深主播马克·马代尔（Mark Mardell）。顺带说一句，这档电台节目是练听力的不错选择哦！
他以梅姨当前的处境作为切入点，犀利分析了英国当前局势，尤其是名义上依然为执政党的保守党内幕，措辞风趣又毒辣。虽然是一家之言，倒也深入浅出，可以说是英国资深媒体人的一种有趣的声音。
以下为马代尔英文原文及中文编译版本▼
别被蒙蔽双眼以至于看不清大局。这不是正常的英国政治。
Don't be fooled out of seeing the big picture. This is not politics as normal.
小心翼翼建造起来的纸牌屋已经轰然垮塌，现在的英国政局比任何恐怖片都来得还要混乱，还要暴虐。
The carefully constructed house of cards has been swept away. It is politics more chaotic, more brutal than any thriller.
保守党的无情可是一向名声在外——即使是备受爱戴的领导人，只要无法再作为保证党派执政地位的工具，就会被抛弃。被弃之如敝履的一代偶像玛格丽特·撒切尔就是个典型案例。但这一次，局势更加残酷，是弄权者一次无比野蛮的教训。
The Conservative Party has a reputation for ruthlessness - getting rid of even much loved leaders when they are no longer a tool to maintaining the party's rule. The defenestration of their idol Margaret Thatcher was a sign of that. But this is far more cruel, a breathtakingly savage lesson in the exercise of power.
梅女士在大选的齿轮上被碾压得粉身碎骨，但却被迫撑起残破不堪的躯体，痛苦地揪起一张脸，只为了保证她的党派尚有一线生机在首相办公室里苟延残喘。
Mrs May has been broken on the electoral wheel but is forced to stand on splintered limbs, grimacing through the pain, for the sake of her party's chance to cling to office.
她就像一个被手底下男爵们抓住了的中世纪君主，她深爱并信任的幕僚们被挡在门外，只有一个昔日旧友前来施舍冰冷的抚慰（译者注：估计说的是在谣传将接替梅姨成为首相后，今天站出来说不会“篡位”的鲍里斯）。现在的英国政府就像一个只剩两条腿的凳子一样稳定，而她早已被同僚们的需求折腾得筋疲力尽。
She is like a medieval monarch, captured by her barons, shorn of the advisers she loved and trusted, allowed one old close friend to minister cold comfort. The government is stable as a two-legged stool, and she is sapped of strength, weakened by the demands of her colleagues.
新任内阁今天首次召开了会议。
所有我交谈过的保守党成员，都不认为她能坚持到两年以上——很多人说6个月，还有说她撑不过几天的。更糟糕的是，他们全都公开承认自己并不知道她还能坐在首相之位多久，甚至不知道最后一根稻草会是啥。
I have spoken to no Conservative who thinks she can last more than two years - many say six months, some a few days. What's worse, they openly admit they don't know how long she can cling on, or what would be the trigger that pulls the trap.
我怀疑，现在让她留在首相府的不是自大的野心，而是痛苦的责任。
I suspect she is still there out of agonising duty, not arrogant ambition.
也许我错了吧。
Perhaps I am wrong.
也许梅女士认为只要她能坚持度过18个月，改变她的政府风格，交出一份不错的脱欧协定，那么无论下次大选什么时候到来，她都还能东山再起。
Perhaps Mrs May thinks if she can hold on for 18 months, change her style of government, do a good Brexit deal, she can win the next election whenever it comes.
毕竟更蹊跷的事情都发生过，而且最近匪夷所思的事情本来就接二连三。毛毛雨下过之后，但凡聪明点的预言师都会告诉你接下来可能大雨倾盆。
Weirder things have happened. But that's only true because so many weird things have happened recently. When it's rained fishes and then frogs, it's an unwise seer who tells you cats and dogs won't follow.
然而在大选结果这样残酷的“惊喜”面前，要是还能抱有如此自信，那绝对是超人类一般的决断力了。
But such self-belief and self-confident resolution would be almost superhuman in the face of such a savage surprise as the election result.
4月8日大选最终结果，保守党离326个议席的绝对优势标准还有8位之差。（图片截取自天空新闻）
和资深政客们聊了几天之后，我听到过最棒的有评论，是由一位多次进入内阁、非常老到的议会成员提出的一个问题：“是谁把她囚禁了起来？”
After days of chatting to senior politicians, the best comment I heard was a question asked by a highly sophisticated operator and veteran of many cabinets: "Who's her jailer?"
答案是内阁所有资深成员，以及影响力深远的后座议员所组成的“1922年委员会”（译者注：1922年委员会负责安排选举、记录选票和公布结果），他们迫切地寻求避免立刻展开新一次大选，并想要解决女王讲话和开启脱欧谈判两件大事。
The answer is the senior members of the cabinet and the influential 1922 committee of backbenchers, all desperate to avoid an immediate election and wanting a Queen's Speech and the start to Brexit talks.
还没什么其他人想要接下特雷莎·梅这份工作。但另一方面，本来也没有任何人期待过大卫·卡梅伦离开后造就的这出混乱闹剧。
No-one else wants the job quite yet. But on the other hand, no-one wanted the chaotic farce following David Cameron's exit that produced this situation.
2016年7月，卡梅伦离开唐宁街10号。
人们需要时间来喘一口气——可能需要几周，或者几个月，也有可能只需要几天。
People need time to draw breath - a few weeks, a few months, a few days.
很多人首相上任的时候，都不过是平等对待他人的先行者，最后却成为独裁者。梅女士的唐宁街10号生涯，却以轻视同僚作为开端，以一个自大暴君的形象来“统治”政府。现在，她便只能做个保守党稳固大船上的船首像（译者注：船首像就是下图这玩意儿，英文里有“有名无实”的含义）罢了。
Many prime ministers begin as barely more than first among equals and end as dictators. Mrs May began her time in No 10 contemptuous of colleagues, ruling as an arrogant autocrat. Now, she is just the figurehead on the good ship Tory Resolution.
（网络图）
别去责怪莱顿·克罗斯比、尼克·提摩西或者菲奥娜·希尔（译者注：克罗斯比是保守党大选中梅姨的重要参谋，提摩西和希尔则是文章开头提到的那两位周五刚辞职的梅姨资深参谋），也别去责怪建议她提前大选的大卫·戴维斯。毕竟基于当时的民调结果和工党状态，提前大选的建议是非常明智的。失败的局面完全是特雷莎·梅一手造成，大选宣传心不在焉，也没有真正呈现出一个英勇无畏的领导者形象。
Don't blame Lynton Crosby, Nick Timothy or Fiona Hill, or those, such as David Davis, who advised her to go for an election. It was eminently sensible, given the state of the polls and the Labour Party. The failure was her failure. She wasn't up to the campaign, did not live up to her role in the heroic narrative.
这番败局的影响是相当的现实，任何少数派政府，都必将成为议员们一念之差的人质。
There's a hugely important practical impact to this diminishment. Any minority government is hostage to the whim of MPs.
人们普遍认为，保守党的那些幕后黑手们通过欺压手段和曝光性丑闻、财政丑闻的威胁来达成自己的目的。但实际上，真正起作用的都是花言巧语和贿赂交易。
There is a popular belief that the whips do their job by bullying and threatening exposure of sexual and financial peccadilloes. In fact, it is blandishments and bribes that do the job.
在没有党派获得议会席位绝对优势的情况下，任何投票都可以称为一场拍卖，无论是为刺猬出台保护政策、还是干脆来场新大选，暴烈的议员们都可以为了他们的小心思屡出高价。
Without a majority, any vote can turn into an auction, with the most truculent MPs bidding high in their own little causes, whether demanding more protection for hedgehogs or a new roundabout for the constituency.
而在首相本人已经过度曝光的情况下，这种情况还会被无限放大。
This is much magnified when the prime minister herself is so exposed.
受影响最大的还是脱欧。特雷莎·梅寻求更大的权力是为了获取一个更好的协议，逐字逐句把她的话再读一遍，意思就是说，她现在能搞到手的协议只会比大选前更糟糕。
The most important impact is on Brexit. Theresa May called for a bigger mandate to get a better deal. It's worth reading her exact words again. Taken literally, she will now get a worse one.
有报道称，在大选刚失败时一场冰冷的谈话中，财相已经告诉她，他想要一个“商业第一的脱欧”。
It is reported the chancellor told her, in a cold early defeat conversation, that he wants a "business-first Brexit".
苏格兰保守党的领导人鲁斯·大卫逊要她“以经济为先”。
The Scottish leader Ruth Davidson told her to "prioritise the economy".
保守党前内阁大臣斯蒂芬·多雷尔甚至都已经不属于议会了，却还是放话说英国需要有“日复一日”的严格审查来避免硬脱欧。
The former Conservative cabinet minister Stephen Dorrell is no longer in Parliament but has said there should be "day-by-day" scrutiny to avoid a hard Brexit.
杰瑞米·科尔宾说他要个“就业率第一的脱欧”。
Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a "jobs first Brexit" .
北爱尔兰民主统一党不同意“没有协议比一个糟糕的协议要好”。（译者注：这是特雷莎·梅评论脱欧协议时的原话）
The DUP don't agree that "no deal is better than a bad deal".
已经有呼声要党派间携手推动一个软脱欧。一言以蔽之，意思就是要把削减移民从脱欧谈判的首要任务列表上划掉。
There is talk of a cross-party alliance to press for a softer Brexit. On the whole, that's code for dropping immigration down the priority list.
有意思的是，赫塞尔廷勋爵（译者注：资深保守党成员）曾经表示存在英国与法国、德国之间签订人口自由协议的可能，然而他也没具体说这将是怎样一个协议。
Intriguingly, Lord Heseltine has suggested a deal might be done with France and Germany on freedom of movement, although he didn't suggest what it might be.
赫塞尔廷勋爵。
另一方面，右派报纸和保守党内那些意志坚决的硬派脱欧党们，也必将醋意滔天地试图从这种“妥协”里挽救他们的脱欧大计。
On the other side, the right-wing newspapers and determined hard-line leavers in the Conservative Party will be just as jealously protecting their Brexit from such compromise.
当一个美国总统任期将满的时候，他们通常被描述为权威所剩无几的“跛脚鸭”，因为他们的权力、以及背后支持他们的力量都有个明确的截止点——不如跟下一个总统勾兑勾兑。当大卫·卡梅伦宣布他将不等任期结束提前下台的时候，也曾经被这样叫过。
When a US president comes to the end of their term, they are often described as a lame duck, with little authority, because their power and patronage have a clear cut-off point - better currying favour with the next fellow. The same was said of David Cameron when he announced he wouldn't serve a full term.
在这些情况下，以上说法并非完全正确。但当一个首相处于“缓刑期”，而面对的问题是“什么时候下台”而不是“会不会下台”的时候，讨价还价的时候还嘴硬不让步就变得困难很多了。
It is only partially true in those cases. But when a prime minister is on probation, when the question is "When?" not "If?" it will be much harder for her to broker deals and stick to her guns.
你大可认为她现在反而能够背水一战，但如果她还是失败了，那么英国政府将彻底垮台，新一次大选将近在眼前。这压力也不是一般的大。
You could argue she has little to lose - but if she fails, the government might fall and an election looms. That's quite a bit of pressure.
我们一次又一次地认识到，搞懂政治需要的可不是寻常逻辑。
We have learned again and again that political will counts for more than the traditional pundit's logic.
也许梅女士能从圣保罗写给科林蒂安的信中（译者注：新约圣经中的故事）求取慰藉，找到她“软弱无能中的浩大之力”，重新成为一个有存在感的形象。
Mrs May could take comfort from St Paul's letter to the Corinthians, find her "strength is made perfect in weakness" and emerge anew a figure of substance.
但现在，她能让一个谚语中的跛行野禽都看起来强大而稳定。
But, for now, she makes the proverbial limping wildfowl look strong and stable.
（英伦圈原创，编译：Moo，原文来自BBC News，原作者：Mark Mardell，图片除标注外均来自BBC，转载请注明。）
