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特步國際: 產品及品牌矩陣完善

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-03 16:33

正文

Xtep International Holdings

(1368 HK)


產品及品牌矩陣完善


24Q1 operational update: retail sales turnover grew by a high-single-digit; upgrading the product and brand matrix

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

公司發佈一季度流水

特步主品牌24Q1零售銷售增長(線上線下)同比高單位數,折扣水平爲7-75折,渠道庫存週轉爲4-4.5個月。


Q1 business update: high-single-digit yoy retail sales growth; 25-30% discounts

Xtep International posted an operational update of its retail business for the first quarter of the year: main brand XTEP posted total sales growth (both online and offline channels) of a high-single-digit yoy, while discounting levels ranged 25-30% and channel inventory turnover was at 4-4.5 months in 24Q1. Next, we look at some of the brands in the company’s multi-brand portfolio, starting with the main brand:


特步主品牌爲大衆跑者設計,推出“360X”碳板跑鞋

2024年3月,特步擴大產品供應,專爲擁有固定跑步習慣的大衆跑者推出“360X”碳板跑鞋。“360X”以穩定性爲核心,採用先進中底技術,及提供更強支撐力的物料。此外,“360X”碳板設計旨在有效降低跑者受傷風險,其穩定性較“360”系列提升4.2%。對比市場上所有碳板跑鞋,360X”的價格極具競爭力,將吸引大衆跑者的廣泛關注。


憑藉卓越的產品質量和性能,特步跑鞋獲得衆多跑步愛好者的廣泛認可,使品牌在中國跑步市場不可動搖的主導地位得以鞏固,穿着率位踞中國馬拉松第一。2023年中國內地的重點馬拉松賽事中,特步跑鞋的穿着率於所有及破三跑者中高踞榜首,並位踞國際及國產品牌第一。2023年特步成爲廈門、北京、廣州馬拉松所有跑者,以及上海馬拉松破三跑者的首選品牌。


XTEP: launch of 360X carbon plate collection; targeting mass-market runners

The X factor: XTEP expanded the supply range by launching the 360X carbon plate running shoe collection in March 2024, which targets regular runners in the mass market. 360X denotes the use of advanced midsole technologies and materials that enhance pacing stability and foot support. According to the company, the 360X carbon plate reduces the risk of running injuries and strengthens pacing stability by 4.2% more than the standard 360 series. Juxtaposed with other carbon plate running shoes on the market, Xtep’s 360X footwear are competitively priced and we expect they will appeal widely to runners in the mass market.


The marathon shoes:

•Crowd favorite: XTEP has the distinction of having the highest wear rates at Chinese marathons. We attribute the brand’s wide recognition among running enthusiasts to its product quality and performance, which led it to dominate the country’s running industry.

•Frontrunners: XTEP also trumped both Chinese and foreign brands with the highest wear rates among runners who finished within 3 hours at key mainland marathons in 2023.

•Major cities: the brand was top choice among all marathon runners in Xiamen, Beijing and Guangzhou in 2023, as well as among those who finished within 3 hours at the Shanghai Marathon.


看好索康尼品牌潛力,構建多品牌矩陣

憑藉出色的設計和卓越的產品性能,索康尼的顧客羣不斷擴大且獲得高度關注,延續強勁的增長勢頭。爲進一步加強控制以及促進索康尼與特步在產品創新、市場營銷及分銷渠道方面的協同效應,公司於2023年12月收購索康尼於中國40%的知識產權,並於2024年1月收購Wolverine Group於2019年合資公司所持的權益,使合資公司成爲特步的全資附屬公司。體現特步對索康尼和邁樂品牌的業務發展及其在中國市場增長潛質的信心和決心。


除“功能”系列外,索康尼進一步開發“復古”及“通勤”系列,以拓寬時尚和休閒的產品供應,滿足消費者在不同場景下對個性化和多功能產品日益增長的需求。“復古”系列全新推出的「2KCAVALRY騎士鞋」不僅主打時尚外觀,更採用現代科技和創新材料,迎合年輕消費者對時尚與運動的雙重追求。


索康尼將繼續拓展一線城市零售業務,同時在二線城市高端購物中心開設零售店。截至2023年12月31日,索康尼及邁樂在中國內地分別有110家門店及4家門店。


Saucony: we believe in the brand’s potential; R&D, marketing and sales synergies

Better synergies: the Saucony customer base is expanding: market traction is growing as the brand’s design and performance drive a strong growth momentum. To better manage the synergies between XTEP and Saucony in terms of product innovations, and marketing and distribution channels, Xtep International in December 2023 acquired 40% of Saucony’s intellectual property rights in China. In January 2024, it went on to buy over Wolverine’s interests in the JVs they had set up together in 2019 to sell and distribute Saucony and Merrell products. Thus, the JVs became wholly-owned subsidiaries of Xtep. These moves indicate Xtep’s confidence and commitment to the business development of the Saucony and Merrell brands, and their potential in the China market.


Adding trendy to the mix: on top of its Functional collection, Saucony developed and added Retro and Commuting models to the line-up. It broadened the supply of trendy and casual footwear to fulfill rising consumer requirements for personalized and multifunctional products for a variety of user scenarios. As part of the Retro collection, it launched the 2K Cavalry line for young consumers who require both trendy looks and sports performance. Thus, the shoes look good and are made of innovative materials with advanced technologies.


Major cities: Saucony aims to keep expanding its retail business in first-tier cities, while opening retail stores in high-end malls in second-tier cities. Saucony and Merrell have 110 and 4 stores respectively in Mainland of China as of 31 Dec 2023.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

公司成功卡位跑步領域,通過專業化品牌升級佔領用戶心智;同時伴隨產品矩陣相繼成熟,新品牌運營表現持續優化,共同驅動集團成長。我們預計公司24-26年收入分別爲160億人民幣、179億人民幣、198億人民幣,歸母淨利11.7億人民幣、13.4億人民幣、15.1億人民幣,對應EPS分別爲0.44人民幣/股、0.51人民幣/股、0.57人民幣/股,對應PE分別爲10/8/7X。


Valuation and risks

Xtep International has gained traction in the running sports industry, in our view, and it is working to capture mindshare through upgrades of its professional sports brands. As the company’s product matrix matures, we believe the new brands will improve in operating performance and would contribute to total growth. We forecast revenue of RMB16.0bn/ 17.9bn/19.8bn in 2024/25/26E, with net profit at RMB1.17bn/1.34bn/1.51bn; EPS corresponds to RMB0.44/0.51/0.57 on PE of 10x/8x/7x in those years. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: 宏觀經濟增長不及預期,人工開支、運營費用率提升,終端門店拓展速度不及預期,線下恢復不及預期,運動品牌行業競爭加劇等。


Risks include: slower-than-expected macroeconomic growth; rising labor and operating expense ratios; slower-than-expected end-market store expansion; slower-than-expected offline market recovery; and intensifying competition among sports brands.



Email: [email protected]

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