公司發佈11月數據：
2024年公司製造業務營收單月同比增長17%，累計同增10.9%; 寶勝營收單月同增-12%，累計同增-8.4%;
上市公司整體2024年11月單月營收6.8億美金同增7.5%，累計營收75億美金，同增3.4%。
我們認為，織造核心邏輯在於不確定中捕捉相對確定性，繼續看好2025行情演繹; 多客戶佈局可對沖終端零售及週期風險，行業馬太效應有利於頭部供應鏈份額提升，在相對平穩市場中捕捉超額成長機會; 頭部供應鏈優勢通常體現在更優質客戶結構、生產製造管理能力帶來的成本優勢以及多年信任積累等。
Revenue trends: Nov up 7.5% yoy, 24M11 up 3.4% yoy, on manufacturing strength
Yue Yuen (YY) released a revenue update on 10 Dec, tracking data up until November 2024:
· Total revenue grew 7.5% yoy to USD680m in Nov; and 3.4% yoy to USD7.5bn in 24M11;
· Manufacturing business: revenue grew 17% yoy in Nov; and 10.9% yoy in 24M11;
· Pou Sheng revenue shrank 12% yoy in Nov; and was down 8.4% yoy in 24M11.
Our 2025E outlook:
we believe the key to the woven product business hangs on capturing specific areas of relative certainty amid general market uncertainties; hence, we are optimistic about how the market will play out in 2025E. YY’s multi-customer framework could provide a hedge against end-market retail and cyclical risks. The industry’s Matthew effect implies supply chain leaders’ potential market share expansion and growth premium in a stable market. Their competitive edge typically stems from a superlative customer structure, cost advantages brought by strong production and manufacturing management, and years of building customer trust.
製造復甦，長遠可期
回顧2024年前九個月，隨著全球鞋履市場進一步常態化，對裕元供應鞋履產品需求大幅增長，其製造業務訂單滿載而推動整體產能利用率及生產效率繼續增長; 品牌客戶側重具開發實力的策略性供應鏈夥伴亦加深此良好趨勢。
裕元對所處運動產業長遠前景保持樂觀態度，將繼續致力中長期產能佈局策略，包括瞄準工作力供應及基礎設施能支援永續增長的印尼及印度，為製造產能進行多元化配置。
公司將繼續秉持以價值增長為優先策略，結合自動化科技及研發實力的整合型產品開發實踐能力，鞏固其作為產業領導者的核心競爭力，繼續為品牌夥伴提供端對端的最佳解決方案，併為股東帶來優質回報。
Manufacturing business recovery: YY bullish about long-term market prospects
Market normalization
: looking back at the first 9 months of 2024, demand for YY’s footwear grew strongly while the global footwear market normalized. Its manufacturing order book filled up, driving capacity utilization and raising production efficiency. Brand customers’ preference for strategic supply chain partners with development capability reinforced YY’s business growth.
Decentralized production
: YY is confident about the long-term prospects for the sports markets in which it operates, and it will maintain mid to long-term capacity buildout, including diversifying manufacturing capacities such as in Indonesia and India, where the labor supply and infrastructure support sustainable growth.
Value-based growth
: the company would prioritize its value-driven growth strategy. As industry leader, YY would firm up its core competencies by combining its automation technology and R&D prowess with integrated product development practices. In this way, it aims to keep providing end-to-end best-in-class solutions to brand partners, while delivering superior returns to shareholders.
重視股東回報
2024年年初至今，裕元股價累計上漲約90%。公司秉持穩健的派息政策，2022年、2023年全年派息率分別為77%及約70%，按年末股價計算，股息率均在10%或以上; 2024年中期股息為0.40港元，派息率45%。
此外，董事會批准於2024年執行約1500萬美元股份回購計劃; 截至2024年10月，裕元已回購363.2萬股，動用近5000萬港元（約640萬美元）。
Rewarding shareholders: high DPRs in recent years; 45% in 24H1E
Generous payouts
: YY’s share price has risen about 90% since the beginning of 2024. Its prudent dividend policy saw a 77% dividend payout ratio in 2022 and a roughly 70% DPR in 2023. Based on year-end share prices, dividend yield is 10% or more. The interim dividend in 2024 is HKD0.40, with a DPR of 45%.
Share buybacks
: the board of directors had approved a share repurchase plan of about USD15m for 2024; as of October, YY has repurchased 3.63m shares for nearly HKD50m (about USD6.4m).
