【经济学人】南迁西移再次来袭|2017.04.22|总第891期

LIKE birds, people tend to move from place to place along established routes. Since the second world war, among the most travelled of these routes in America has been from the “snow belt” in the Midwest and north-east to the “sun belt” in the south and west. The recession that began in 2007 knocked Americans off course for a while, and led to confident predictions that old cities would recover some of their population losses. But people have begun to head southward and westward again.

人们会像鸟一样根据已有的路线迁徙。自第二次世界大战以来,从美国中西部，东北部的多雪带到西边和南边的阳光带都是人们经常走的路线 2007年开始的经济萧条曾在短时间内打倒了美国人，也让他们真切地相信一些老城能够让原本人口锐减的美国复苏。但人们已经开始再次向南部和西部进发。

According to recently released estimates by the census bureau, Maricopa county in Arizona, which includes Phoenix and its suburbs, grew by 222 people a day on average in the year to July 2016. It overtook Harris county in Texas, home to Houston, as the county with the highest annual population growth. Cook county, which includes Chicago, saw the largest population fall in the same period, with a net loss of more than 21,000 people. Seven of America’s eight fastest-growing states are in the west. (In addition to Arizona, they are Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington; the eighth state is Florida.) Illinois, which contains Chicago, has lost more people than any other state for three years in a row.

根据人口普查局最近公布的的数据，亚利桑那州的马里科帕县，包括菲尼克斯及其郊区，到2016年七月平均每天增长222人。这一数据超过了休斯顿的家乡德克萨斯的哈里斯县，，这个县的年人口增长率最高。包括芝加哥在内的库克县是同期人口下降幅度最大的县，净减少量超过21000人，美国八个增长最快的国家中有七个在西部。（除亚利桑那州外，还有科罗拉多州、爱达荷州、内华达州、俄勒冈州、犹他州和华盛顿；第八个州就是佛罗里达州。）包括芝加哥在内的伊利诺州相当于其他州这三年失去了更多的人。

• Bureau 局

• Maricopa 马里科帕（美国一地名）

• Arizona 亚利桑那州（美国西南部的州）

• Harris 哈里斯（英国苏格兰西北部一地区）

• Idaho 爱达荷州（美国州名）

People tend to move for work, says William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. In that respect the west scores highly: Arizona and Nevada are expected to have exceptionally high job growth this year. Mortgages have become easier to obtain in general, and the recovering housing market has enabled retirees to sell up and move to warmer places. Simple fashion plays a part, too: trendy cities like Austin, Denver and San Francisco are drawing many people between the ages of 25 and 35.

智囊机构布鲁金斯学会的人口统计学家威廉·弗雷说：“人们更倾向于因为工作而搬迁。”在这方面，在西部表现的尤为明显：估计今年亚利桑那州和内华达州的就业率会增长。在大体上人们更容易获得抵押资格了，复复苏的房地产市场促使退休者卖房然后迁居更温暖的地方。此外时尚也影响着迁徙方向：像奥斯汀、丹佛和旧金山这样的新潮城市吸引了很多25岁到35岁之间的人。

• Demographer 人口统计学家

• Think-tank 智囊团

• Mortgages 抵押贷款

Another context is race. Blacks seem especially keen to leave Chicago, and the Midwest in general, for the southern states that many of their ancestors fled about a century ago. Mr Frey calls this “the great migration of blacks in reverse”.（读者试译句） In 1970 the Chicago area had the second-largest black population in the country, with some 1.3m residents, more than double the black population of metropolitan Atlanta. Today more blacks live in and around Atlanta than Chicago. And the southern metropolis is much more racially mixed. According to the Urban Institute, a think-tank, Atlanta was the 41st most segregated of 100 large American metropolises in 2010 (down from 21st most segregated in 1990). Chicago ranked tenth.

另一个影响迁徙的因素是种族。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）1970年，芝加哥地区的黑人人口位列美国第二，约有130万居民，比亚特兰大的黑人人口多一倍以上。现今居住在亚特兰大的黑人远远多于在芝加哥居住的人数,而南方大都市的种族也越来越多。根据城市研究所智库的统计，亚特兰大于2010年是100个美国大都市中第41个独立的（从1990年的第21位降至第41位）。芝加哥名列第十。

• Metropolitan 大城市的

• Metropolis 大城市，大都市

• Racially 按人种地

“Blacks who live in only black areas do much worse in life,” says Edward Glaeser, an economist at Harvard University who specialises in cities. Schools in such areas tend to be poor—the quality of public schools in Chicago’s South Side, where many blacks live, ranges from poor to execrable. The Metropolitan Planning Council, a Chicago think-tank, estimates that regional GDP would be $8bn a year higher if Chicago were only as segregated as the average American metropolis. It is only an educated guess. That segregation is costly is, however, almost certain.

专门从事城市工作的哈佛大学经济学家爱德华·格莱泽说：“只住在黑人区的黑人生活会很糟糕” 因为在黑人区的学校一般经济条件差，例如芝加哥南边的公立学校，有些贫穷，有些糟糕。芝加哥的智囊机构都市规划委员会预估，如果芝加哥只是和普通的美国大城市那样实施种族隔离政策的话，地区GDP会一年增加80亿美元，但这仅仅是学术上的猜测罢了。事实上种族隔离耗资很大这一点是毋庸置疑的。

• Execrable 可恶的，讨厌的

翻译 ▍Andrea，小小

审核 ▍小太阳Kiki

图文编辑 ▍且听风吟

责任编辑 ▍毛毛