岳立    盘古智库高级研究员  

Korean 19th President Moon Jae-in has enjoyed a full honeymoon with his public ever since the inauguration on May 10. According to the latest Gallup Korea poll showed on June 12, the liberal president scored 78.9 percent job approval rating, though dropping slightly from the best figure as 88% of that of the third week, far higher than any of his recent predecessors. “Compared to previous presidents, President Moon is recording one of the highest job approval ratings. Positive views prevailed across all age groups,” Gallup said in a press release.

It is noticed that issues of foreign affairs, especially those of inter Korean relations and national security, have not made much positive contribution to the polls. Among those who disapproved, as high as 28% interviewees disliked the President’s personnel choices. Not only have there been drastic disputes and resistance against the top Cabinet officials and other nominees from among the parliament, but also there seems no sign for the launch of what will truly be President Moon's new administration in a few more weeks, if not months. While 14 of the 17 Cabinet members, especially key posts as Defense Minister, Foreign Minister and Unification Minister, are still empty, there came out the news that vice chief of the National Security Office stepped down amid allegations on his misconduct while teaching at a top Seoul university. 

During his first parliamentary address on June 12, the President urged the Assembly to cooperate with his new government and its reform policy, including personnel picks. Among the total 300-seat Assembly, the ruling Democratic Party has only 120, far short of a house majority to provide direct support for the President. The main opposition Liberty Korea Party alone controls 107 seats, together with People's Party and Bareun Party, forming an opposition bloc with 173 lawmakers. As the opposition has said it will not be cooperative on key issues, it is not surprised to see the weak Party President facing a hard and harsh presidential term for the coming five years.

President Moon Jae-in has ranked issues of North Korean nuclear and the inter-Korean relation as the top priority matters of foreign affairs. The new President has also showed his willingness to seek reversal changes within the peninsula by sending special presidential envoys to China, US, Japan and Russia, as well as discussing North Korea’s nuclear activities over phone calls with the top leaders of the four countries. Moreover, the ambitious President also tries to reopen inter-Korean civilian exchanges, which had been shut down after Pyongyang’s 4th nuclear test in January, 2016. By now South Korea has given 18 approvals to Seoul's civilian exchanges since President Moon Jae-in took office May 10.

The Moon administration is also trying to gather international support by building up common diplomatic ground on critical issues of North Korea nuclear and missile tests. President Moon and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reached a conclusion for more sanctions and pressure on North Korea during a 20-minute phone conversation on May 30th, one day after the North's new ballistic missile test. In turn, 300 people special envoys of Abe paid a four-day visit to South Korea one week later, expecting to lead to the activation of exchanges between South Korea and Japan.

On May 29, South Korea and UN hold their first policy dialogue meet in Seoul, discussing a wide range of cooperative issues, including the growing North Korea nuclear threat. On May 30, Moon requested Netherlands' continued cooperation on North Korea nuclear issue during a phone call with New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English, saying that his new government would use all available means to bring North Korea back to the dialogue table. In a phone conversation with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on the same day, Moon said he hoped for "continued strategic communication and cooperation" against the North's nuclear weapons program. On June 8th, President Moon Jae-in held a phone talk with Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, and North Korea's nuclear issue was one of the topics.

The new government takes advantages of multilateral international conferences for his propaganda. 12th Jeju Forum, an annual regional dialogue for promoting peace and prosperity in Asia, was held from May 31 to June 2, on the South Korean resort island of Jeju, Around 5,000 government officials and experts from around the world were invited to be present at a total of 76 sessions, among which was a special focus on North Korea's nuclear issues. During a video speech to the opening ceremony, President Moon addressed the determination and efforts that his government had made to break through the thick ice of inter Korean relations, calling for support, coordination and cooperation of the international societies. Pangoal Institution, the fast developing Chinese independent Social think tank sent a big delegation of 11 scholars, too.

The 16th Asia Security Summit from June 2 to 4, better known as the Shanggri-La Dialogue, came right after the Jeju Forum. North Korea became the focus of top defense officials from around the world at the Summit. The South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo, expected to be replaced soon in a Cabinet shake-up by his new leader, didn’t give up his last try at this event. Han had bilateral meetings with his American, Japanese, Australian, Indonesian, Canadian and New Zealand counterparts on the sidelines of the conference, and North Korea was also at the top of the agenda in these separate talks. There was also a trilateral talk of representatives of South Korea, US and Japan. The three regional powers agreed to hold more combined defense drills against North Korea’s military threats and promote related information sharing in their joint press statement.

While President Moon is pursuing turning over for South Korea in foreign policies and setting up new channels with his counterparts, sophisticated changes have been taking place within US-Korean relation. Just after five months of the stepping up of the President Trump, “America first” has already brought tremendous influences all over the world, especially in the Northeast Asia. Right upon the third day after his inauguration, President Trump signed executive orders, officially announcing America’s withdrawing from TPP, which, in the Obama’s geopolitical map, was the US' effort to lead the regional order in the near future. The long expected transition for regional allies of the US into a common trade framework led by the US became a potential power vacuum. 

Besides, the US President is a strong opponent against FTA. During the Campaign trail, he had many times criticized the FTA, including the one with South Korea, for killing jobs of Americans. FTA between South Korea and the US, enforced in 2012 after years of negotiations, was valued by experts as mutually beneficial, though the US claims that it is "tilted" in favor of Seoul. Mr. Trump claimed that Washington had already informed the Seoul government of its intention to renegotiate it, calling the free trade agreement with South Korea a "horrible deal". Now the world has come to know how much President Trump cares about more gains with less pay in his bilateral trade. The only question left for the South Korea might be how much it could be willing or afford to step back.

Again, THAAD issue is inevitable. As an over reacting countermeasure against the nuclear and missile threat from the North, the rash deployment of THAAD has encountered strong and fierce opposition from both China and Russia since the very first day. It might not be the best idea for the Chong Wa Dae to suspend the complete deployment of the whole system by EIA (environmental impact assessment) review till the end of this year, but it is not a worst way for President Moon to cool down the situation from the burning point, though temporarily. Although US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster told South Korea's presidential envoy during its visiting to Washington on May 18, that he was aware that there was a procedural problem in South Korea with the decision to host the US THAAD missile defense system, added with the disclosure of intention omission of four additional launchers of the system on May 30, it is very clear that neither the US nor the South Korea is pleased with what is going on there. 

North Korea has always been unexpectedly unpredictable in the eyes of the world. Whereas the North threatened considering a military strike just five days before the South Korea’s Presidential Election, its state media reported the results of South Korea's presidential election and other information in detail, one day after Mr. Moon was sworn in as president. The Ministry of Unification of South Korea considered it was a positive response from the North toward the new administration, contrasted with its one-sentence dispatch in December 2012, when the former conservative President Park Geun-hye was elected. "The two Koreas should respect each other and open a new chapter to move toward an improvement of their ties and inter-Korean unification," the newspaper said. Moreover, North Korea repeatedly called on South Korea to implement an inter-Korean summit agreement from 2000, saying they were “the foundation of national reconciliation and unity and the starting point of solving the issue of the North-South relations”, and would help improve their relations and lead to peace on the divided peninsula. All these left the world an illusion of tension-ease on North-South Korean relations.

However, this is not the full story. On May 19, North Korea on Friday sent a critical message via its official media to the newly launched liberal South Korean government, claiming that dialogue can never be compatible with confrontation, following South Korean President Moon Jae-in's unexpectedly tough response to the North's latest test-fire of a new kind of an intermediate-range ballistic missile, the first military provocation since Moon's inauguration. On June 5, the North rejected the South Korean civic and religious groups' overtures for exchanges in protest against Seoul's backing for UN Security Council sanctions adopted a week ago to punish Pyongyang's missile provocations. On June 12, The North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency fired shots at the liberal Moon Jae-in administration in Seoul, saying it was following the US moves to “stifle” the North while speaking of improving inter-Korean relations. At the same time, the North didn’t stop its jogging run along the missile tests. Five missile tests with at least one dozen shots, showing its missile tech marching developed, were conducted with the first month after President Moon took office, while there were totally nice tests within the year by now. Together with the shadow cast by flying objects over the border and suspected North Korean drone, some South Korean insiders described the North’s words and acts as “confusing”.

It is pretty interesting, if not more confusing that the North Korea have been more consistently contacting with the US, a country to the far end of the west, rather than its neighbor countries. Despite of facing extreme pressure and all-options-on-table policy of the US, the North seems intending to keep a door open to it, the leading imposer of upgraded international sanctions. From May 8 to 9, North Korean officials hold informal talks with a group of American experts in Oslo, Norway, amid speculation that Washington may seek dialogue with Pyongyang, which was their first Track II meeting in half a year, only ten days after North Korea threatened to sink US nuclear submarine deployed to S. Korea. On May 14, a senior North Korean diplomat in charge of US affairs said Saturday Pyongyang will hold talks with Washington "under the right conditions," raising the possibility bilateral contact amid US President Donald Trump having expressed his willingness to meet with the North's leader.

On June 14th, North Korea said Wednesday it is willing to respond to suggestions of any dialogue and cooperation on the humanitarian front, as a North Korean delegation in New York attending the 10th meeting of state parties to the Convention on the Rights of Persons. On the same day, Dennis Rodman, the former NBA star, being good friends with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, began sightseeing in Pyongyang  and said he hoped would “open a door” for his former “Celebrity Apprentice” boss -- President Donald Trump. Hours after his arrival the previous day, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that North Korea had released an American student serving a 15-year prison term with hard labor for alleged anti-state acts.

If the story goes like this, analysis about the North Korean confusing behaviors could make some sense, in which it is “finally at front and center of US attention”. According to the South Korean media, “For many years, one of the most frequently cited explanations for North Korea's bad behavior and saber-rattling, such as weapons tests and bellicose rhetoric, was that the communist nation was trying to grab US attention.” “Pyongyang was trying to use ‘shock therapy’ to get Washington into negotiations where it can extort economic aid and other concessions”. It seems that North Korea is betting on the super power US for not only national security, economic growth, but also chances of returning to the international communities, as the South Korea is not a qualified or equal geopolitical player in the future map of the North.

As a close neighbor to the Peninsular, China has always been willing to offer help. Early this year, May 8th, Mr. Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister proposed suggestion of “double suspension” and “double track”, regarding to the Peninsular situation, in which China's proposal is to simultaneously promote the denuclearization of the peninsula and the establishment of the peace mechanism on the Korean peninsula. The idea of “double suspension” means that North Korea is to suspend nuclear missile activities, while South Korea and the US to suspend large-scale military exercises.  During the regular media conference of MFA on March 20, Ms. Hua Chunying, the Chinese spokeswoman urged the two sides to seriously consider China's proposal, saying this is a realistic, reasonable, objective and fair plan for the present situation. China hopes that all parties will calm down and judge the situation, make wise choices and find opportunities in the challenges. On May 24, Mr. Liu Jieyi, China's UN ambassador said Tuesday that multiple North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile tests, with no end in sight, show the "very strong" need for new talks with Pyongyang to reduce tensions and try to achieve denuclearization. Mr. Liu added that all progress with North Korea on eliminating nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula has come through dialogue, "so there's no reason why dialogue is not taking place in the current situation."

Russia, another stock holder of Korean Peninsula, shares common grounds with that of China on the Korean nuclear issue. Chong Wa Dae said on May 12, that the new President reached a consensus to resolve the nuclear issue with Russian President Putin in the congratulations call, saying that President Moon would focus on the early resumption of the six party talks, and asked Russia to play a constructive role in resolving the Korean nuclear issue to halt nuclear provocation from the North, toward to denuclearization. Putin responded that Russia was ready to play a constructive role. On May 25, after a meeting with South Korean presidential envoy, Russian President Vladimir Putin was quoted that he was willing to mediate between South and North Korea by dispatching his emissary to Pyongyang in a bid to help relieve tensions on the Korean Peninsula. “The North Korean nuclear issue could never be resolved through war. That’s impossible”. “The problem should be solved through dialogue because using sanctions alone has limitations, and it could also work against North Korean people and incur humanitarian issues.” The president also stressed the need to resume the six-party talks, as well as the need to open direct talks between North Korea and the United States.

President Moon vows to take the lead on the issue of inter Korean relations. During his video speech to the opening ceremony of 12th Jeju Forum on June 1st, Moon pledged to take the lead in North Korea’s nuclear issues without “leaning on the role of other countries.” The new president has been long and widely expected to have direct engagement to Pyongyang, because not only he is a strong supporter for the “Sunshine Policy” by ex-President Roh Moo-Hyun, but also lessons had been drawn from the isolation policy by the conservative party for the past eight years, in which, North Korea has completely become a nuclear power chaser from a though tough negotiator.

President Moon gives more details about his inter Korean route map. “We will convince and pressure North Korea together with the US, China and other relevant nations to drive it to a forum for dialogue and achieve the resolution of the nuclear issues and the improvement in inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations.” “If North Korea presses ahead with armed provocations, I clearly promise I will sternly retaliate with the robust alliance with the US and our own defense capabilities so as to safeguard peace.” While seeking to ease concerns, he at the same time introduced his vision to foster an “inter-Korean economic community”, which was part of his election pledge calling for a “New Korean Peninsula Economic Map”, that he said would pave the way for lasting peace on the peninsula. “A peaceful peninsula is no longer a dream,” Moon said. “During my term, I will bring about a novel milestone in fostering peace on the peninsula.” 

Moon Chung-in, an honorary Yonsei University professor who serves as special presidential adviser for unification, foreign and security affairs, said on June 14, that “The large framework for this summit is to solidify the Korea-US alliance, coordinate the North Korean nuclear issue between the two countries and get the US to support Seoul playing a leading role in establishing permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.” It is highly agreed that President Moon need practical and operational measurements and outcomes, as well as ambitions and determinations while tackling the challenges on the issues of inter Korean relations. And yes, there surely are opportunities and advantages for the South Korea to take, although not much. But, the government has to be very, very careful to join them into positive forces, avoiding the “Sunshine” from being weakened to “Moon light” just as the pessimistic have speculated to be.

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