大多数经济体至少在
2022
年之前不太可能恢复到新冠疫情之前的水平，这是本周国际回收局（
BIR
）主题会议上得出的结论。
Most economies are unlikely to return to pre-Covid-19 levels before at least 2022,was the conclusion of this week’s Bureau of International Recycling (BIR)’sConvention Week Keynote Session.
汇丰银行德国首席经济学家
Stefan Schilbe
认为，大多数国家可能要到
2022
年才能恢复到疫情前的活动水平。巴黎
-
道芬大学经济史教授
Philippe Chalmin
的预测则更为鲜明。他警告说：“在
2022
年——甚至
2023
年——之前，我们都不可能恢复到去年的水平。”
According toStefan Schilbe, Chief Economist at HSBC Germany, most countries will probablyfail to return to pre-pandemic levels of activity until 2022. The forecast fromPhilippe Chalmin, Professor of Economic History at Paris-Dauphine University,was even starker: “It’s not before 2022 – or even 2023 – that we will be back hopefully at the levels we were last year,” he warned.
Chalmin
表示，最近几个月出现“……
1930
年代以来最严重的经济危机。”所有主要国家都出现负增长——中国是个明显的例外。
Chalmindescribed the events of recent months as “…the most severe economic crisissince the 1930s”. All major countries had been returning negative growthfigures – with the notable exception of China.
事实证明，“……
2020
年的明星”大宗商品是黄金和铁矿石。前者在
8
月攀升至
2,000
美元
/
盎司以上，但此后跌至
1,900
美元附近。后者因中国钢铁产量上升而突破
130
美元
/
吨，之后回落至
120
美元
/
吨。
The commodity “…stars of 2020” had proved to be gold and iron ore. The formerclimbed above $2,000 per ounce in August but has since dropped to nearer$1,900. The latter broke through $130/tonne as a result of rising Chinese steel production before heading back towards $120/t.
铁矿石价格预计将跌破
100
美元
/
吨，导致“……废钢价值小幅下跌，”
Chalmin
在
Kallanish
（开阑商务信息咨询）出席的活动中表示。他指出，总体而言，对于金属市场，包括主要的有色金属，供应过剩和相信中国复苏已经被考虑在内。“我认为价格上涨的空间不大，”他证实。
Iron oreprices are expected to dip below $100/t, resulting in a “…slight downwardmovement in ferrous scrap values,” Chalmin said at the event attended by
Kallanish
.For the metals markets, in general, including the leading non-ferrous metals,he pointed to surpluses and a belief that China’s recovery had already beenfactored into values. “I don’t see much scope for a rise in prices,” theprofessor confirmed.
Chalmin
还预计，油价将从
40
美元
/
桶左右跌至
30
美元附近。
Chalmin also anticipates a decline in oil prices from around $40/barrel to nearer $30.
Schilbe
表示，今年早些时候与疫情相关的限制措施使一些经济体“……几乎陷入停滞”，但随后的复苏是由中国国内的“……经济稳定”推动的。中国的投资正在继续回升，预计将出台进一步的财政刺激措施。他补充说，预计美国的货币政策仍将“……超宽松”，而欧元走强可能会抑制欧洲的出口复苏。
Schilbe reported that some economies had been brought “…almost to a standstill” byCovid-related restrictions earlier this year but that a subsequent recovery hadbeen driven by “…economic stabilisation” within China. Investment in this country is continuing to pick up and further fiscal stimuli are anticipated.Monetary policy could be expected to remain “…ultra-loose” in the USA, while astronger euro could dampen an export recovery in Europe, he added.
Schilbe
指出下行风险：疫情长期持续；保护主义拖累世界贸易增长；就业支持计划等措施造成的高负债率；以及破产和失业。
Schilbeidentified downside risks: a prolonged pandemic; protectionism dragging downworld trade growth; high levels of indebtedness as a result of, for example,job support schemes; and bankruptcies and unemployment.
BIR
总干事
Arnaud Brunet
在主题会议开幕时说，
2020
年是“……异常动荡的一年，甚至是残酷的一年。”他警告说，未来
6-12
个月可能“……非常不确定”。他指出，国际货币基金组织和经合组织都“……对短期和中期前景持悲观态度。”
BIR Director General Arnaud Brunet opened the Keynote Session by describing 2020 as “…an exceptionally turbulent if not brutal year”. He warned the next 6-12 months were likely to be “…very uncertain”. Both the IMF and OECD were “…pessimisticabout the short-term and medium-term future”, he noted.
