百度24Q3業績概覽
：公司Q3總收入336億元，同比-3%：Non-GAAP凈利潤59億元，同比-19%。
百度Core
：
24Q3百度Core收入為265億元; 其中在線營銷收入188億元，同比-4%
：主要是由於宏觀經濟形勢嚴峻，消費者信心和支出仍然低迷。 我們預計在線營銷收入在未來幾個季度的增長保持基本穩固。
非在線營銷收入77億元，同比+12%，主要由智慧雲業務帶動; AI Cloud收入達49億元，同比+11%。 增長主要由生成式AI （gen-AI）和基礎模型驅動，AI收入佔總AI Cloud收入的11%; 愛奇藝收入72億元，同比-10%。
我們認為，公司在AI基礎設施方面的強大技術優勢將不斷推動AI CLOUD收入增長，隨著ERNIE的採用不斷擴大，在基礎模型領域繼續取得重大進展，在AI CLOUD領域將有望保持領先。
智慧雲&文心一言：公司擴展ERNIE系列，推出兩款增強型輕量級機型Speed Pro和Lite Pro
。11月，ERNIE每天處理約15億個API調用，較8月的6億個大幅增加。 我們認為API的調用量增長下ERNIE的市場採用率趨勢良好，逐步驗證其在實際應用中的價值。 在增強的ERNIE模型的支援下，公司正在實現AI功能在整個產品線（從面向消費者的產品到企業解決方案）的全面滲透。 據公司公告披露，公司在未來將繼續增強ERNIE Agent的功能，並擴展其在各種場景中的應用。 ERNIE Agent的對話次數顯著增長，平均每天達到1500萬次。 9月的月活躍用户為7.04億，同比+6%。搜索佔比方面，搜尋結果頁面中包含生成內容的比例已由18%上升至20%，百度App AI功能覆蓋其月活用户的近70%。 AI Cloud在第三季度繼續加速，業務的增長有效抵消了在線營銷業務的持續疲弱。
我們認為公司在AI方面持續的投入，將進一步擴大百度的業務能力。
利潤端
：2024Q3 Non-GAAP運營利潤70億元，運營獲利率為26%。我們認為，百度搜索的用户行為在繼續變好，運營獲利率也有望持續轉好。
智能駕駛
：據公司年報，公司的自動駕駛服務蘿蔔快跑在24Q3供應的自動駕駛訂單約為98.8萬單，同比+20%。 截至2024年10月28日，蘿蔔快跑累計為公眾提供的自動駕駛出行服務超過8百萬單。 蘿蔔快跑累計完成800萬次出行服務的基礎上，第六代無人車阿波羅RT6量產成本極具競爭力，價格低於3萬美元，公司在發展無人駕駛方面穩步前進。
With the online marketing business undergoing a transitional phase, on top of advertising market weakness, we expect Baidu will keep pushing AI transformation and investing into smart cloud and driverless transportation development. We maintain our BUY call and HKD137 target price.
The gist: BUY
·24Q3E results takeaways: slowing yoy growth on macroeconomic pressures
·Smart cloud and Ernie: Speed Pro and Lite Pro launches; APIs on the rise
·Smart driving: Apollo Go autonomous driving business is developing well
24Q3E results takeaways: slowing yoy growth on macroeconomic pressures
Key metrics
: Baidu's unaudited 24Q3E results had revenue coming in at RMB33.6bn, down 3% yoy, and non-GAAP net profit at RMB5.9bn, down 19% yoy.
A breakdown shows:
·
Core businesses
generated revenue of RMB26.5bn in 24Q3E, comprising:
- Online marketing revenue of RMB18.8bn, down 4% yoy because of deeply adverse macroeconomic factors such as consumer spending decline. We expect revenue growth in this segment to remain stable over the next few quarters;
- Non-online marketing revenue of RMB7.7bn, up 12% yoy, mainly driven by the smart cloud business, where Al cloud revenue reached RMB4.9bn, up 11% yoy. The major growth drivers were generative AI (gen-AI) and foundation models, with AI revenue accounting for 11% of Al cloud revenue.
· iQIYI
generated revenue of RMB7.2bn in Q3E, down 10% yoy.
Our take
: we believe Baidu's strong tech edge in AI infrastructure will continue to drive its Al cloud revenue growth. We expect the company will maintain its Al cloud market leadership as adoption of its Ernie foundation model grows and its foundation models continue to make good progress.
Smart cloud and Ernie: Speed Pro and Lite Pro launches; APIs on the rise
Ernie expansion
: Baidu launched its Ernie large language model series with the launch of two lightweight enhanced models: Speed Pro and Lite Pro. Ernie processed about 1.5bn API calls per day in November, a sharp rise from 600m in August. We believe Ernie's market adoption rate is pacing well as seen in the rise of API calls, which validates its value in real-world applications.
AI penetration
: supported by enhanced Ernie models, Baidu's AI-driven capability is reaching full penetration across its entire product line, from consumer products to enterprise solutions. Baidu's announcement indicates it continues to enhance functionalities of its Ernie Smart Agent Platform to expand applications through extended scenarios. The number of conversations with Ernie is rising exponentially and currently stands at 15m per day on average. They hosted 704m monthly active users (MAU) in September, up 6% yoy. In terms of market share, the proportion of search results pages containing generated content increased from 18% to 20%. Baidu's app Al functionalities have penetrated nearly 70% of its MAU. Al cloud business growth accelerated again in Q3 and effectively offset online marketing weakness.
Our take
: we believe Baidu's investments into Al will keep expanding capabilities in this business. Currently, the business generates RMB7bn of non-GAAP operating profit and operating margin of 26% as of Q3E. We believe Baidu's search user behavior will keep tracking an upturn, which would help expand operating margin.
Smart driving: Apollo Go pacing well in developing autonomous driving business
Autonomous service Apollo Go supplied about 988,000 autonomous driving orders in 24Q3, a yoy increase of 20%, according to Baidu's annual report. Apollo Go provided more than 8m driverless ride-hailing orders to the public as of 28 Oct 2024. The high order volume indicates extremely competitive mass production cost of the sixth-generation unmanned vehicle Apollo RT6 at a price of less than USD30,000. We believe the business is developing well.
