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Josh Luber is a "sneakerhead," a collector of rare or limited sneakers. With their insatiable appetite for exclusive sneakers, these tastemakers drive marketing and create hype for the brands they love, specifically Nike, which absolutely dominates the multi-billion dollar secondary market for sneakers. Luber's company, Campless, collects data about this market and analyzes it for collectors and investors. In this talk, he takes us on a journey into this complicated, unregulated market and imagines how it could be a model for a stock market for commerce.

乔西·鲁伯是一名“球鞋控”，专门收藏稀有的或者限量版的球鞋。怀揣对高档球鞋的无尽热爱，这些时尚达人们推动自己喜爱的品牌——具体而言就是耐克——的销售，卖力帮它宣传，使得耐克成为价值数十亿美元的二级球鞋市场霸主。鲁伯的Campless公司，搜集这一市场的数据并进行分析，提供给收藏者和投资者。在本次演讲中，鲁伯带我们领略了这个复杂的、缺乏监管的市场，畅想它成为“贸易股票市场”模版的可能性。

- Audio -

- Transcript -

This is the Air Jordan 3 Black Cement. This might be the most important sneaker in history. First released in 1988, this is the shoe that started Nike marketing as we know it. This is the shoe that propelled the entire Air Jordan lineage, and perhaps saved Nike. The Air Jordan 3 Black Cement did for sneakers what the iPhone did for phones. It's been re-released four times. Every celebrity's been seen wearing it. There's a site about what to wear with the Black Cement. It's been right under your nose for decades and you never looked down. And right about now, most of you are probably thinking, "Sneakers?"

这是一双飞人乔丹3代黑水泥球鞋。 它可能是史上最重要的一双球鞋。 于1988年首次推出， 正是它开启了我们熟知的耐克营销（模式）。 正是它开启了整个飞人乔丹产品线， 甚至可能拯救了耐克公司。 飞人乔丹3代黑水泥对于球鞋的意义 就像iPhone对于手机的意义。 这款鞋先后发售过四次。 几乎所有明星都穿过它。 有一个网站还专门介绍 应该穿什么（衣服）来搭配黑水泥。 它已经流行了几十年 而你却从未注意过它。 也许就在此刻， 你们大多数人会想，“啥？球鞋？”

Yes. Yes, sneakers. Some extraordinary things about sneakers and data and Nike and how they're all related, possibly, to the future of all online commerce.

是的。 没错，就是球鞋。 （我想说说）关于球鞋的趣事 关于数据 关于耐克 以及它们是如何同 在线贸易的未来联系在一起的。

In 2011, the last time the Jordan 3 Black Cement was released, at a retail of 160 dollars, it sold out globally in minutes. And that's because people were camped outside of sneaker stores for days before it went on sale. And just minutes after that, thousands of those pairs were on eBay for two and three times retail. In fact, there's over 1,000 pairs on eBay right now, four years later. But here's the thing: this happens every single Saturday. Every week there's another release or two or three, and every shoe has a story as rich and compelling as the Jordan 3 Black Cement.

2011年， 乔丹3代黑水泥最近一次发售， 零售价160美元， 在全球范围内几分钟就被抢购一空。 因为人们在店外扎营等候， 从发售开始几天前就开始了。 在此之后几分钟内， 数千双黑水泥在eBay上以2-3倍的价格出售。 实际上，四年后的今天， eBay上仍有超过1000双在出售。 更为重要的是： 这样的事情每个星期六都在发生。 每周都会有一、两款鞋发售， 每款鞋都有自己的故事 每个故事都像乔丹3代黑水泥一样精彩。

This is Nike building the marketplace for sneakerheads -- people who collect sneakers -- and my daughter.

这就是耐克为“球鞋控”打造的交易市场。 “球鞋控”就是指这些收集球鞋的人， 还有我的女儿。

That's an "I love Dad" T-shirt.

T恤上写的是“我爱老爸”。

For the brands, sneakerheads are a very important demographic. These are the tastemakers; these are the Apple fanboys. Because who else is going to buy a pair of $8,000 Back to the Future sneakers?

对于品牌而言，“球鞋控” 是非常重要的目标人群。 他们就如同时尚达人， 他们就如同苹果的“果粉”。 因为除了“球鞋控” 谁会花8000美元 去买一双“回到未来”风的球鞋呢？

Yeah, 8,000 dollars.

没错，8000美元。

And while that's obviously the anomaly, the resell sneaker market is definitely not. Thirty years in the making, what started as an underground culture of a few people who like sneakers just a bit too much --

尽管（在日常生活中）这简直不可思议， 但在二手球鞋市场就再正常不过了。 这个市场已经发展了30年， 最初还是一种地下文化， 起源于一小部分对球鞋的爱， 只比普通人多一点点的人。

Now we have sneaker addictions. In a market where in the past 12 months, there have been over nine million pairs of shoes resold in the United States alone, at a value of 1.2 billion dollars. And that's a conservative estimate -- I should know, I am a sneakerhead. This is my collection. In the pantheon of great collections, mine doesn't even register. I have about 250 pairs, but trust me, I am small-time. People have thousands.

现在我们都爱鞋成瘾了。 在过去12个月， 有超过900万双鞋 在美国被转手出售， 总价值12亿美元。 这还只是保守估计。 （这些数据）我应该知道， （因为）我就是个“球鞋控” 这些是我的收藏。 跟大咖们相比，我的数量少得可怜。 我有大约250双球鞋， 但是真不算什么。 有的人有几千双。

I'm a very typical 37-year-old sneakerhead. I grew up playing basketball when Michael Jordan played, I always wanted Air Jordans, my mother would never buy me Air Jordans, as soon as I got some money I bought Air Jordans -- literally, we all have the exact same story. But here's where mine diverged. After starting three companies, I took a job as a strategy consultant, when I very quickly realized that I didn't know the first thing about data. But I learned, because I had to, and I liked it. So I thought, I wonder if I could get ahold of some sneaker data, just to play with for my own amusement. The goal was to develop a price guide, a real data-driven view of the market. And four years later, we're analyzing over 25 million transactions, providing real-time analytics on thousands of sneakers. Now sneakerheads check prices while camping out for releases. Others have used the data to validate insurance claims. And the top investment banks in the world now use resell data to analyze the retail footwear industry. And here's the best part: sneakerheads have sneaker portfolios.

我是个典型的37岁的“球鞋控”。 我是打篮球长大的， 当时乔丹还没退役， 我一直想买乔丹鞋， 我妈肯定不答应， 我一有钱就会去买乔丹鞋， 我想，大家的经历都差不多。 但我的经历又有些不同。 在开办了3家公司之后， 我找了一份战略咨询师的工作， 然后我迅速意识到， 我对数据一无所知。 但我学得很快，因为我不得不学。 而且我很喜欢。 然后我就想，能不能 抓取一些关于球鞋的数据， 仅仅是为了好玩。 我的目标是做出一个价格指导系统， 能一窥真实的市场状况， 完全靠数据说话。 四年过去了，我们能（通过） 分析超过2500万宗交易， 提供对数千双球鞋的实时（价格）分析。 现在“球鞋控”在排队等待发售 的时候可以查询价格。 其他人用这些数据来看自己是否买亏了。 顶级投资银行们 也利用这些二手交易数据 来分析制鞋工业销售情况。 但最棒的是， “球鞋控”有了球鞋投资收益表。

Sneakerheads can track the value of their collection over time, compare it to others, and have access to the same analytics you might for your online brokerage account. So sneakerhead Dan builds his collection and identifies which 352 are his. He can see it's worth 103,000 dollars -- frankly, a modest collection. At the asset level, he can see gain-loss by shoe. Here he's made over 600 dollars on one pair. I have one of those.

他们可以跟踪自己藏品的价值， 与其他人（的藏品）进行比较， 得到详细的（投资）分析， 就跟我们的在线经纪人账户一样。 所以“球鞋控”丹创建了自己的藏品集， 一共有352双鞋。 他可以看到，目前这些鞋值10万3千美元， 坦率地说，规模不算大。 上升到资产层面，他可以 看到每双鞋价值的变化 这双鞋他就已经赚了600美元。 我也有一双这样的。

So an unregulated 1.2 billion dollar industry that thrives as much on the street as it does online, and has spawned fundamental financial services for sneakers? At some point I asked myself what's really going on in the market, and two comparisons started to emerge. Are sneakers more like stocks or drugs?

因此，这是一项价值高达12亿美元 的产业，却又缺乏监管， 它在线上线下同时繁荣发展， 还催生出了针对球鞋的基本金融服务。 有时候我会问自己， 这个市场到底是怎么运作的， 我的脑海中会浮现两个参照物。 球鞋是像股票呢，还是像毒品？

In fact, one guy emailed to say he thought his 15-year-old son was selling drugs and later found out he was selling sneakers.

一次，一个人给我发邮件说， 他觉得自己15岁的儿子在卖毒品， 结果发现他在卖球鞋。

And now they use the data to do it together. And that's because sneakers are an investment opportunity where none other exists. And I don't just mean the kid selling sneakers instead of drugs. How about all kids? You have to be 18 to play the stock market. I sold chewing gum in sixth grade, Blow Pops in ninth grade and collected baseball cards through high school. The cards are long dead, and the candy market's usually quite local.