专栏名称: 群邑智库

群邑智库作为群邑中国的智囊及知识管理中心，将全力负责发展群邑中国具有领先思想的媒体行业研究；提升第三方调研的运用；并对集团自主开发的工具、调研、系统进行全方位多层次管理。

2021 Media Inflation Update and How to Deal with It

群邑智库 · 公众号 · · 2021-05-19 18:00

正文

Follow GMK in WeChat to get insights anywhere anytime

In the 49th Media Express in 2020 , GMK forecasted 2021 China Media inflation. For now, by understanding various data of 1st quarter, the market situation is basically in line with the original forecast. Judging from the media market this year , with the gradual containment of the Covid-19 and the gradual recovery of consumption, there has been a significant recovery on the demand side compared with last year; and digital platforms on the supply side has encountered traffic bottlenecks after the epidemic dividend period. This issue of Media Express will look forward to the Market Inflation from Q2 to Q4 of this year.

Key takeaways are as below：

Digital media has an outstanding inflation in 2021: As the demographic dividend of the Internet fades, digital media platforms further tap user value through differentiated advantages and high-quality content , so advertisers still allocate most of their budgets to digital media.

Social media inflation continues to stay ahead the others: From content to the ecommerce, social media influence is growing, as more and more advertisers start to increase the proportion of social media platform while supply-side resource commercialization is slow. In recent years, social media inflation increased year by year.

To cope with the media market inflation FACT in this year, we prepared 4 suggestions to marketers：

F lexible investment strategy

A lternative partners

C ontent & Creative

T ransfer to market

The factors affecting media inflation are explained in detail in the 49th Media Express in 2021 , so we won’t repeat them here. Let’s review the major changes from both demand and supply side:

Supply Side

Policy regulation impact: The supply side reduction is mainly caused by the impact of policies . First of all , 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. At the same time, this year is also the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and it is also the beginning of the new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. Based on this, TV stations will restrict some drama shows and variety shows while reducing advertising resources. Secondly, National Radio and Television Administration continues strengthen policy supervision on the drama topic, sky-high remuneration of stars, the ratings fraud, and the revamped TV series, also cause the incremental reduction of new drama.

Media morphosis: The advocation of staying local for the 2021 Spring Festival released early which allows advertisers and media to prepare for it in advance . The State Council also encourages the media to increase the supply of programs of the Internet, TV, and radio during this period , so that consumers have more opportunities to reach advertisements than last year. While for the Tokyo Olympic Games which already postponed for a year, the first time behind closed doors without overseas spectators mode will consume much more sporting events advertising inventory than before. Members can skip advertisements is still one of the most important factors affecting OTV inventory.

Audience change: Although there are signs of epidemic recurrence in the beginning of 2021, but they are quickly got control with efficient epidemic prevention and control mechanism. And with the attendant is the popularity of the vaccine, people are spending much more time on outdoor activities. The internet use of consumers will return to the new normal.

Demand Side

Macro: Compared to last year's city closure which caused by outbreak of the Covid-19, the epidemic has been further alleviated with the free open vaccination this year; CPI, GDP, CCI(Consumer Confidence Index) and other macro-economic indicators has increased a greater extent than last year to boost domestic demand. At the same time, imported inflation has inevitably leaded to an increase in raw material costs, and all major industries have experienced the market inflation.

Industry: For industries which overseas markets are affected, they are facing internal pressure of facing traffic and the dual challenges from the market and income from external; they need to broaden the size of the market led to increased demand, which is very visually reflected in the advertiser's ad spending.

Analysis of 2021 Media Inflation：

Next, let us look into specific media formats below

Social Media (including short video)： +37.8%

First, for the social platform and short video platform, the bargaining power is low as the media concentration is very high, that means they are more vulnerable to the effects of inflation. And short video continue to expand their market size, according to the estimation from iimedia, the social media market size in 2021 will be nearly 200 billion and the growth rate will be 38.1%, the number of users will be also grew from 722 million in 2020 to 809 million in 2021 and the growth rate will be 12%. Second, in recent years, the demand curve moves to the right each year while the overall supply increment is small since social media have significant effect on recommendation and spread, the marginal effect increased every year, it is the most popular media category. We forecast social media inflation would be 37.8% in 2021.

Online Video： +25.2%

In 2021 , the demand of consumers on online video returns to the new normal. While the consumer time spending on online video decreased compared to 2020 , the supply curve was significantly shifted to the left due to the impact of the increase in membership. On Demand side, online video advertisement are mostly for branding, which are affected by the macroeconomic impact and strongly rebounded after epidemic. And the supply side compared to 2020 is significantly reduced , that means demand is greater than supply on online video. We forecast online video media inflation would be 25.2% in 2021.

OTT： +26.2%

In 14th Media Express in 2021 , along with OTT on technologyand content become more mature , the percentage of clients that put emphasis onad reach and TV/OTV who also had OTT ad serving increased from 13% in 2016 to51% in 2020. Plus 2021 is the year with several major sporting events, thedemand curves moves to the right. On the supply side, similar to the derivation of online video,the supply curve of OTT has significantly shifted to the left. It is notdifficult to find that the marginal effect of OTT has been increasing year byyear in recent years, and more high-quality resources will be tapped. Weforecast OTT media inflation would be 26.2%.

TV： +5.9%

Benefit from the recovery of major sports events, the demand for 2021 TV advertising has significantly increased compared to 2020. In terms of supply, although part of the inventory will be consumed during the Tokyo Olympics, but as 2021 is policy year, the inventory during the non-sport event period still decreased compared to 2020. We forecast TV media inflation would be 5.9%.

OOH： +12.2%

Since there are signs of epidemic recurrence in the beginning of 2021, the government advocated to stay local for the 2021 Spring Festival so that commercial passenger traffic in Jan.-Feb. declined 15% compared to 2020, consumers are becoming more cautious on the homecoming trip. However, with the gradual popularization of vaccines, outdoor activities (demand side) will accelerate recovery in the second half of the year. Recently China Tourism Research Institute predicted the number of domestic tourists will be 1.722 billion in the first half of 2021, domestic tourism revenue will reach 1.28 trillion yuan, respectively recovered to 56% and 46% of the same period in 2019 and increased 85% and 102% than the same period in 2020. From the perspective of the supply side, although speeding up of DOOH can consume some inventory, but cinema and transportation hubs in some remote areas are still greatly affected by the epidemic. We forecast OOH media inflation would be 12.2%

2021 China Media Inflation Forecast

2021 Media Inflation Update and How to Deal with It

正文

请到「今天看啥」查看全文