【经济学人】委内瑞拉的灾难|2016.10.22|总第738期

TO MOST investors, Venezuela looks less like a market than a mess. The IMF expects output to shrink by 10% this year and inflation to exceed 700%. As the bolívar’s value has plunged, multinational firms have announced billions of dollars of write-downs. For much of this year, however, some strong-stomached investors have scented an opportunity. They rushed to buy bonds issued by the government and by the state-owned oil company, PDVSA.

对于大多说投资者来说，委内瑞拉不能称为市场，只能说是一片混乱。国际基金货币组织预计本年度该国年产量将缩水10%，通货膨胀率超过700%。因委内瑞拉币值大幅贬值，跨国公司宣称数以十亿资产缩水。然而一些胆大的投资者在今年大半年的时间里都嗅到了都投资机会。他们将政府和委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）发行的债券抢售一空。

• Scent ： 嗅到

They have been rewarded handsomely. Venezuelan government bonds have outperformed other emerging-market sovereign bonds tracked by JPMorgan (see chart). The government, led by NicolásMaduro, boasts it has never missed a debt payment. Indeed he has given priority to debt service over other urgent needs, such as importing food. MrMaduro is keen not to scare off the foreign creditors sorely needed by PDVSA.

如今他们都收获颇丰。据摩根银行的跟踪调查（见图表），委内瑞拉政府债券比较其他新兴市场的主权债券在市场上的表现还要好。由马杜罗领导的委内瑞拉政府表示国家从未拖欠债务。事实上，相比进口食物等紧急需求，马杜罗确实将债务放到了第一位。委内瑞拉石油公司急需外资，马杜罗不希望因债务吓跑国外债权人。

• handsomely ：巨大地

• outperform： 胜过

However, Venezuela looks increasingly stretched. Two big PDVSA payments, of $1 billion and $2 billion, are due on October 28th and November 2nd. Last month the company proposed a bond swap to ease a looming payments crunch: investors holding PDVSA bonds maturing in 2017 (which are not backed by a full sovereign guarantee), would exchange them for bonds maturing in 2020. This would buy Venezuela time, perhaps in the hope that oil prices rise.

然而委内瑞拉的债务偿还起来也是日益捉襟见肘。委内瑞拉石油公司的两大笔款项（一笔10亿美元，另一笔20亿美元）将分别在10月28日和11月2日到期。上月该公司提议用债券互换来缓解即将到来的支付危机：持有2017年即将到期债券（且没有完整的主权担保的）持有人可以将其换成2020年到期的新债券。这一举措将给委内瑞拉赢得一些时间，或许此举寄希望于未来油价上涨。

• bond swap  ：债券互换

• sovereign guarantee ：主权担保

Not so fast. Even sweetened terms for the swap have failed to lure investors. PDVSA has four times delayed the deadline for the exchange, most recently to October 21st. PDVSA warned in a press release on October 17th that if its offer is not accepted, “it could be difficult” to make its scheduled payments.

不过，事情进展没有那么快。优惠政策也未能吸引投资者。委内瑞拉国有石油公司已经四次延缓交易截止日期了，最后一次是延缓到11月21日。10月17日该公司对媒体表示倘若没人愿意投资，他们可能很难按期付款。

• sweeten 使...感到甜，给...加糖

Francisco Velasco of Exotix, a brokerage specialising in frontier markets, says investors face a prisoner’s dilemma. They could agree to a swap, with terms that are less than ideal, in the hope that others investors will do the same. Or they could decline PDVSA’s offer. But that would make default ever more likely.

Exotic是一家专营前沿市场的经纪公司，该工司的Francisco Velasco表示投资者陷入了囚徒困境。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的读者试译详解哟~）

• frontier market： 前沿市场

• prisoner's dilemma ：囚徒困境

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