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Fig. 1.
Sketch map of the Qilian Mountains, China. The black line represents basins; red points represent the meteorological stations; the dark blue
plane represents the glacier; the light blue plane represents the lake; the gray line represents the boundary of the eastern, central and western parts.
Fig. 2.
Characterization of precipitation phase frequency distribution at different temperatures in the Qilian Mountains. Blue represents the snow
frequency; green represents the rain; pink represents the sleet.
Fig. 3.
Spatial pattern of ERA5-Land temperature(a) and precipitation(b) correlations compared with CRU over the Qilian Mountains (1961
–
2020).
The pie charts depict the distribution of correlations. Spatial Taylor diagram (c, d) and temporal three phase diagram(e) between individual models
from CMIP6 compared with CRU over the Qilian Mountains (1961
–
2014). Upper case letters (yellow) represent primordial models and lower (blue)
represent corrected models, see
Table 1
for details. REF represents the CRU data, red represents the best ensemble mean. Interannual variations of
the snowfall over the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 1979 based on meteorological stations and ERA5-Land (f-m).
Fig. 4.
Time series of temperature, precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall changes in (a-d) year, (e-h) spring (March-May; MAM), (i-l) summer (July
August; JJA), (m-p) autumn (September-November; SON), and (q-t) winter (December-February; DJF) during 1961
–
2020 in the Qilian Mountains.
Red lines are the trends of temperature, precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall.
Fig. 5.
Spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall in (a-d) year, (e-h) spring (March-May; MAM), (i-l) summer (July
August; JJA), (m-p) autumn (September-November; SON), and (q-t) winter (December-February; DJF) over the Qilian Mountains from 1961
to 2020.
Fig. 6.
Spatial distribution of temperature, precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall change rates in (a-d) year, (e-h) spring (March-May; MAM), (i-l)
summer (July-August; JJA), (m-p) autumn (September-November; SON), and (q-t) winter (December-February; DJF) over the Qilian Mountains
from 1961 to 2020.
Fig. 7.
Rainfall and snowfall and their change rates vary with elevation in (a, b) year, (c, d) spring (March-May; MAM), (e, f) summer (July-August;
JJA), (g, h) autumn (September-November; SON), and (i, j) winter (December-February; DJF) over the Qilian Mountains from 1961 to 2020. Bow
whisker plots show the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of snowfall(A), snowfall trend(B), rainfall(C), and rainfall trend(D) during
different elevations.
Fig. 8.
The temporal variations of the annual LPSD and the summer LPSD (a), the annual and summer mean temperature (b), the intra-annual
amplitude of daily temperature variation and monthly LPSD diversity(c), as well as the LPSD, vary with elevation(d) over the Qilian Mountains
under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios during 1961
–
2100. ERA5-Land (dark blue), Historical (black), SSP1
–
2.6 (blue), SSP2
–
4.5
(yellow), SSP3
–
7.0 (red), and SSP5
–
8.5 (dark red) simulations by the multi-model ensemble mean of the two best models (BMME). Bow-whisker
plots show the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles.
Fig. 9.
The spatial variation of the LPSD over the Qilian Mountains during 1961
–
2100. The LPSD in 1961
–
1980(a) and 2001
–
2020(b) based on
ERA5-Land. The LPSD in 2041
–
2060 and 2081
–
2100 based on CMIP6 under SSP1
–
2.6(d, e), SSP2
–
4.5(g, h), SSP3
–
7.0(j, k), and SSP5
–
8.5(m, n),
respectively. The trends of LPSD during 1961
–
2020(c), and 2021
–
2100 under SSP1
–
2.6(f), SSP2
–
4.5(i), SSP3
–
7.0(l), and SSP5
–
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