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解析作者 | 唧唧堂经济金融学写作小组：
文比天大
1、被误解的社会规范:以沙特阿拉伯妇女外出工作为例
摘要：研究发现，沙特阿拉伯绝大多数年轻已婚男性，私下是支持女性外出工作的(WWOH)，并大大低估了其他类似男性的支持。纠正这些误解会增加男人帮助妻子找工作的(代价高昂的)意愿。几个月后，误解得到纠正的男性的妻子，更有可能申请并面试一份家庭以外的工作。本文进行了一个试验，在当地一家公司的招聘中，随机告知女性对WWOH的实际支持，导致她们从在家临时打杂的工作，进而转向收入更高的家庭以外的工作。
Abstract：We show that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support women working outside the home (WWOH) and substantially underestimate support by other similar men. Correcting these beliefs increases men's (costly) willingness to help their wives search for jobs. Months later, wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside the home. In a recruitment experiment with a local company, randomly informing women about actual support for WWOH leads them to switch from an at-home temporary enumerator job to a higher-paying, outside-the-home version of the job.
参考文献：Bursztyn, Leonardo, Alessandra L. González, and David Yanagizawa-Drott. 2020. "Misperceived Social Norms: Women Working Outside the Home in Saudi Arabia." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 2997-3029.
2、商业周期再剖析
摘要：本文提出了一种新的策略来剖析宏观经济时间序列，以期为最能描述数据的商业周期传播机制提供一个模板，并使用其属性来评估简约和中等规模多样性的模型。研究发现，支持主要商业周期驱动因素的存在，但排除了以下可能的因素：技术或其他与全要素生产率变动相关的冲击、关于未来生产力的新闻和教科书式的通货膨胀需求冲击，旨在适应需求驱动的周期，而非严格依赖名义刚性的模型。
Abstract：We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.
参考文献：Angeletos, George-Marios, Fabrice Collard, and Harris Dellas. 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3030-70.
3、公共部门组织中的赞助与晋升抉择
摘要：在所有现代官僚机构中，政治家在公共就业决策中保留一定的自由裁量权，如果政治关系取代了个人能力，这可能会导致选拔过程中的摩擦。根据1997-2014年巴西公共部门详细匹配的雇主-雇员数据，以及在势均力敌的竞选中的断点回归设计，研究得出了三个主要发现。首先，对于官僚和一线供应商来说，政治关系是公共组织就业的一个关键和数量上很大的决定因素。其次，赞助是这一结果背后的重要机制。最后，政治考量，有可能导致选择能力较差的个人。
Abstract：In all modern bureaucracies, politicians retain some discretion in public employment decisions, which may lead to frictions in the selection process if political connections substitute for individual competence. Relying on detailed matched employer-employee data on the universe of public employees in Brazil over 1997–2014, and on a regression discontinuity design in close electoral races, we establish three main findings. First, political connections are a key and quantitatively large determinant of employment in public organizations, for both bureaucrats and frontline providers. Second, patronage is an important mechanism behind this result. Third, political considerations lead to the selection of less competent individuals.
参考文献：Colonnelli, Emanuele, Mounu Prem, and Edoardo Teso. 2020. "Patronage and Selection in Public Sector Organizations." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3071-99.
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4.家庭债务中的流动性与财富:来自大衰退时期住房政策的证据
摘要：本文利用抵押贷款修改的变化，来厘清减少长期债务而不改变短期付款(“财富”)和减少短期付款而不改变长期债务(“流动性”)的影响。使用断点回归和双重差分的研究设计，用行政数据衡量违约和消费。研究发现，增加财富而不影响流动性的本金减少没有影响，而仅增加流动性的到期日延长却有很大影响。这表明流动性推动了样本中借款人的违约和消费决策，不良债务重组可以重新设计，给借款人、贷款人和纳税人带来巨大收益。
Abstract：We exploit variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments ("wealth"), and reducing short-term payments with no change in long-term obligations ("liquidity"). Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find that principal reductions that increase wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect, while maturity extensions that increase only liquidity have large effects. This suggests that liquidity drives default and consumption decisions for borrowers in our sample and that distressed debt restructurings can be redesigned with substantial gains to borrowers, lenders, and taxpayers.
参考文献：Ganong, Peter, and Pascal Noel. 2020. "Liquidity versus Wealth in Household Debt Obligations: Evidence from Housing Policy in the Great Recession." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3100-3138.
5.日益加剧的进口竞争是否导致了美国政治的两极分化？
摘要：日益加剧的进口竞争是否导致了美国政治的两极分化？分析2000年至2016年期间国会和总统选举的政治表达和结果的多项指标，研究发现，在2016年美国总统大选开始之前，受贸易影响的当地劳动力市场，出现了意识形态重组的的证据，这种证据是强有力但非决定性的。利用中国进口竞争加剧的外生因素，研究发现，贸易暴露的选区，在某些领域同时表现出日益加剧的意识形态两极分化，这意味着对极左和极右观点的支持都在扩大，而在其它领域则是纯粹的右倾转变。具体来说，受贸易影响的通勤区或地区的福克斯新闻频道的市场份额不断增加（向右移动），竞选捐款的意识形态两极分化加剧（两极分化），选举共和党人进入国会的可能性相对增加（向右移动）。最初白人人口占多数的受贸易影响的县，更有可能选择共和党保守派，而最初多数族裔人口占少数的受贸易影响的县，更有可能选择自由民主党。在这两类县中，这些收益都是以温和民主党为代价的（两极分化）。在总统选举中，贸易敞口较大的县转向共和党候选人（向右移动）。这些结果支持了一种新兴的政治经济文献，这种文献将不利的经济冲击与尖锐的意识形态重组联系起来，这些意识形态重组沿着种族和民族的路线分裂，并导致政治偏好和经济政策的离散变化。
Abstract：Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade-exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong-left and strong-right views, and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade-impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade-exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade-exposed counties with an initial majority-minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.
参考文献：Autor, David, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, and Kaveh Majlesi. 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3139-83.
6.家庭金融不作为的来源：来自丹麦抵押贷款市场的证据
摘要：本文建立了一个经验模型，将抵押贷款再融资的延迟，归因于抑制再融资的心理成本，直到激励足够强；以及潜在地归因于信息收集成本的行为，降低了在任何激励下单位时间内家庭再融资的可能性。文中根据来自丹麦的行政面板数据对模型进行了估计，研究发现，在丹麦，没有套现的抵押贷款再融资是不受约束的。中年和富裕家庭的行为就好像他们有很高的心理再融资成本；但是，年龄更大、更穷、受教育程度更低的家庭往往不考虑激励因素，反而以更低的概率进行再融资，从而实现更低的储蓄。研究使用该模型，来理解货币政策传导的抵押贷款渠道中的摩擦。
Abstract：We build an empirical model to attribute delays in mortgage refinancing to psychological costs inhibiting refinancing until incentives are sufficiently strong; and behavior, potentially attributable to information-gathering costs, lowering the probability of household refinancing per unit time at any incentive. We estimate the model on administrative panel data from Denmark, where mortgage refinancing without cash-out is unconstrained. Middle-aged and wealthy households act as if they have high psychological refinancing costs; but older, poorer, and less-educated households refinance with lower probability irrespective of incentives, thereby achieving lower savings. We use the model to understand frictions in the mortgage channel of monetary policy transmission.
参考文献：Andersen, Steffen, John Y. Campbell, Kasper Meisner Nielsen, and Tarun Ramadorai. 2020. "Sources of Inaction in Household Finance: Evidence from the Danish Mortgage Market." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3184-3230.
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7.失业工人长期收入损失的来源
摘要：本文使用华盛顿州的相关雇主-雇员面板数据，来估计大衰退期间失业工人的收入减少、工作时间和工资率的幅度。失业工人的收入损失主要是因为小时工资率在失业时下降，恢复却缓慢。特定雇主保险费的损失只能解释17%的损失。整整70%的失业工人，会转到支付与失业相同或更高工资的雇主那里，但这些工人仍然遭受了巨大的工资率损失。有价值的特定的工人-雇主匹配的损失，解释了一半以上的工资损失。
Abstract：We estimate the magnitudes of reduced earnings, work hours, and wage rates of workers displaced during the Great Recession using linked employer-employee panel data from Washington state. Displaced workers' earnings losses occurred mainly because hourly wage rates dropped at the time of displacement and recovered sluggishly. Lost employer-specific premiums explain only 17 percent of these losses. Fully 70 percent of displaced workers moved to employers paying the same or higher wage premiums than the displacing employers, but these workers nevertheless suffered substantial wage rate losses. Loss of valuable specific worker-employer matches explains more than one-half of the wage losses.
参考文献：Lachowska, Marta, Alexandre Mas, and Stephen A. Woodbury. 2020. "Sources of Displaced Workers' Long-Term Earnings Losses." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3231-66.
8.人工智能、算法定价和共谋
摘要：在商品和服务定价方面，算法正日益取代人类决策者。为了分析可能的结果，本文在重复价格竞争的寡头垄断模型中，实验性地研究了人工智能（Q-learning）驱动的算法的行为。研究发现，这些算法一直在学习收取超竞争价格，而不是相互交流。并且，高昂的价格是由共谋策略支撑的，惩罚是有限的，随后是逐渐恢复合作。这一发现，对成本或需求的不对称性、参与者数量的变化以及各种形式的不确定性都是稳健的。
Abstract：Increasingly, algorithms are supplanting human decision-makers in pricing goods and services. To analyze the possible consequences, we study experimentally the behavior of algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence (Q-learning) in a workhorse oligopoly model of repeated price competition. We find that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supracompetitive prices, without communicating with one another. The high prices are sustained by collusive strategies with a finite phase of punishment followed by a gradual return to cooperation. This finding is robust to asymmetries in cost or demand, changes in the number of players, and various forms of uncertainty.
参考文献：Calvano, Emilio, Giacomo Calzolari, Vincenzo Denicolò, and Sergio Pastorello. 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3267-97.
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9.同行惩罚会提高投票率吗？
摘要：本文引入了一个模型，在这个模型中，参与投票的社会规范是由竞争的政党战略性地选择的，并决定了选民的投票率。必须通过代价高昂的同行监督和惩罚来执行社会规范。当执行社会规范的成本较低时，较大的政党一方总是处于有利地位。否则，按照奥尔森(1965)的分析，较小的政党可能会占优势。本文的模型分享了道德投票者模型的特征，它提供了新颖的和经验相关的比较静态结果。
Abstract：We introduce a model where social norms of voting participation are strategically chosen by competing political parties and determine voters' turnout. Social norms must be enforced through costly peer monitoring and punishment. When the cost of enforcement of social norms is low, the larger party is always advantaged. Otherwise, in the spirit of Olson (1965), the smaller party may be advantaged. Our model shares features of the ethical voter model and it delivers novel and empirically relevant comparative statics results.
参考文献：Levine, David K., and Andrea Mattozzi. 2020. "Voter Turnout with Peer Punishment." American Economic Review, 110 (10): 3298-3314.
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提高赞助:无条件资助私立学校的均衡效应
摘要：本文评估融资是否能帮助私立学校，这些学校现在占低收入和中等收入国家小学入学率的三分之一。本文的实验是，向一个村庄的一所（L）或所有（H）私立学校分配无条件的现金补助。在这两个（L和H）部门，注册人数和收入都有所增加，带来了高于市场的回报。但考试分数只在H校有所提高，与此同时，伴随着更高的收费，对教师的关注度更大。本文提供了一个模型，表明市场力量可以通过提供内生的激励来提高质量，增加的财务饱和可以用来平衡竞争，产生社会期望的结果。
