【经济学人】美国货币政策丨2017.07.16丨第938期

NO STATEMENT from the Federal Reserve is complete without a promise to make decisions based on the data.（读者试译句） In each of the past two years, a souring outlook for the world economy prompted the Fed to delay interest-rate rises. And quite right, too. Yet if the Fed raises rates on June 14th in the face of low inflation, as it has strongly hinted, it would bring into question its commitment both to the data and also to its 2% inflation target.

（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）在过去两年中，每年的世界经济前景的恶化促使美联储延缓加息。这种行为非常正确。然而，如果美联储在面对低通胀率的情况下于6月14日像曾经暗示的那样进行加息，那么它关于基于数据制定政策和维持2%以下通胀率的承诺将会受到质疑。

The central bank has raised rates three times since December 2015 (the latest rise came in March). It is good that monetary policy is a little tighter than it was back then. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is lower than at any time since early 2001. A broad range of earnings data show a modest pickup in wage growth. The Fed is right to think that it is better to slow the economy gradually than be forced to bring it to a screeching halt later, if wage and price rises get out of hand. The rate increases to date have been reasonable insurance against an inflationary surge.

2015年12月以来，中央银行已经进行了三次加息（上一次是在今年三月）。好的作用是货币政策比过去更紧缩，失业率降到了4.3%，达到2001年以来最低点，大范围的营收数据显示工资正在温和增长。美联储的想法完全没错，逐渐放缓经济比之后当工资和物价突然失控被迫急刹车来得好。目前为止，加息已经成为应对通胀率飙升的一种合理的保险方式。

• screeching adj.尖叫的，刺耳的

But no such surge has yet struck. Unexpectedly low inflation in both March and April has left consumer prices no higher than they were in January. According to the Fed’s preferred index, core inflation—that is, excluding volatile food and energy prices—has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% earlier this year. It is now well below the 2% target.

但是目前为止通胀飙升还从未发生。三四月份出乎意料的低通胀率使消费价格比一月更低。根据美联储惯用的核心通胀指数（一种排除了价格不稳定的食物与能源价格的指数），通胀率已经从年初的1.8%降到了1.5%，并且如今稳定的保持在2%的目标以下。

• volatile adj.(价格等)波动的；不稳定的

Nor does a surge seem imminent. For a while, Donald Trump’s promises to cut taxes and spend freely on infrastructure made higher rates appear all the wiser. But fiscal stimulus looks less likely by the week. Tax cuts are stuck in the legislative queue behind health-care reform, and Mr Trump’s administration has tied itself in knots over whether it will increase the deficit. Meanwhile, the current “infrastructure week” in Washington may generate more headlines than proper plans.

通胀飙升看起来并不是迫在眉睫的问题。短时间内，特朗普政府做出的关于减税和鼓励在基础设施建设上自由支出的承诺使得高利率显得十分明智。但是财政刺激看起来不太可能在本周出现。减税政策继医保改革之后也进入了立法队列里，特朗普政府纠结于减税是否会加大赤字。于此同时，当前的“华盛顿基础设施周”只会制造更多的新闻头条而不是产生更合理的计划。 

• imminent adj.即将发生的；临近的；急迫的；危急的

Even so, the Fed is expected to go ahead and raise rates this month. The markets think there is a 90% probability of an increase of 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point).

即便如此，美联储预计还会在本月继续加息。市场认为美联储这次有90%的可能性上调25个基准点（0.01个百分点）

It is possible that more inflation is coming. An economy that is stimulated will eventually overheat. The central bank may believe that low unemployment is about to cause inflation. But the truth is that nobody is sure how far unemployment can fall before prices and wages soar. Not many years ago some rate-setters put this “natural” rate of unemployment at over 6%; the median rate-setter’s estimate is now 4.7%.

更多的通货膨胀可能正在到来，受刺激的经济最终将会过热。央行可能认为低失业率导致了通货膨胀，但事实上没有人可以确定在物价和工资飙升之前，失业率能下降多少。就在几年前，一些利率制定者将自然失业率定在6%以上，但是现在他们估测自然失业率中位数仅为4.7%。

The only way to find the labour market’s limits is to feel them out. Falling inflation and middling wage growth both suggest that these limits are some way off, for two possible reasons. First, higher wage growth could yet tempt more of the jobless to seek work (those who are not actively job-hunting do not count as unemployed). The proportion of 25- to 54-year-olds in employment is lower than before the recession, by an amount representing almost 2.4m people. By this measure, which fell in May, joblessness is worse in America than in France, where the overall unemployment rate stands at 9.5%. Second, even the moderate pickup in wage growth to date might encourage firms to invest more, lifting productivity out of the doldrums and dampening inflationary pressure.

找出劳动力市场的限制因素的唯一方法就是去亲自体会它们。不断下降的通胀率和中等的工资增长都表明，这些限制因素多少有些不合实际，其原因有二。第一，更高的薪水增长会吸引更多的失业者去寻找工作（不积极找工作的人不算失业者）。如今25至54岁就业者的比率比经济衰退时期前更低，大约为240万人。以这个方式来衡量，五月的就业率是下降的，美国的失业率比法国更高，整体失业率达到9.5%。第二，目前工资增长的明显好转可能会鼓励企业增加投资，来提升生产力以脱离不景气，减少通胀压力。

• doldrum n.(工商业或艺术创作活动等的)停滞，低潮，不景气；萧条时期

• dampen v.降低；减少；抑制；使扫兴；使沮丧，使消沉，给…泼冷水

I like hike

我喜欢远足

Jobs growth in America has already slowed from a monthly average of 187,000 in 2016 to 121,000 in the past three months. That is enough to reduce slack in the economy, but only just. Slowing it still further is needless so long as inflation remains quiescent. It makes still less sense when you consider the asymmetry of risks before the Fed. If tighter money tips the economy into recession, the central bank has only a little bit of room to cut rates before it hits zero. But if inflation rises, it can raise them as much as it likes.

美国的就业增长从2016年的月平均187000人已经减少到了最近三个月的平均121000人。这足够减少经济的不景气所带来的影响了，但也仅仅是刚刚好。只要通胀率保持不变，进一步放缓就显得不重要了。当你在美联储之前考虑到风险的不对称性时，它就没有什么意义了。如果货币紧缩政策导致了经济衰退，那么央行在其到利率零点之前就仅有一点点空间来削减它了。但是如果通胀率继续上升，央行就可以任意加息了。

• quiescent adj.静止的；沉寂的；不活动的

• asymmetry n.对称；对称性

This asymmetry of risks extends to the Fed’s credibility. Inflation has been below 2% for 59 of the 63 months since the target was announced in January 2012. Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank’s commitment to it than modest overshoots would.

这种风险不对称性延伸倒了美联储的信誉。从2012年一月美联储宣布这个目标以来，通胀率已经在63个月中有59个月保持在2%以下。比起适度的超过，继续脱离这个目标会使央行遭到更多对其曾经承诺的目标的质疑。

• undershoot v.脱靶；未达目标

For too long, hawks have made excuses for the persistence of low inflation. The latest is to blame new contracts offering unlimited amounts of mobile data, as if cheaper telecommunications somehow should not count. The Fed should keep its promise to base its decisions on the data, and leave interest rates exactly where they are.

长久以来，鹰派以很多理由来保持低通胀率。最新的一个理由是指责那些新合同提供了不限量的移动数据，似乎廉价的电信数据不应计算在内。美联储应继续坚守自己的承诺，它基于数据做出决定，并且保持利率精确的走向。

翻译 ▍龙叔

审核 ▍竞风之翼

图文编辑 ▍leone

责任编辑 ▍毛毛