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思考樂教育: 超預期,重啓高增

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-20 18:02

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Scholar Education Group (1769 HK)


超預期,重啓高增


H1E profit alert: 87% net earnings growth exceeded expectations as Scholar returns to high-growth trajectory

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈24H1正面盈利公告

公司預計24H1收入不少於3.8億元人民幣,同增超51.2%;歸母淨利不少於0.8億元,同增超86.5%,其中包含共計約1090萬元購股權福利開支(23H1爲360萬元),剔除後歸母淨利不少於0.9億元,同增超95.5%。


歸母淨利增加主要系①輔導課時總數增加帶動公司收入增長;②公司持續提升經營效率,改善運營表現。


24H1E profit alert: Scholar set to announce net profit growth of at least 87% yoy

Key financials: Scholar Education issued a profit alert for 24H1E on 5 August, expecting:

•Revenue of at least RMB380m, up more than 51.2%;

•Net profit of at least RMB80m, up more than 86.5% yoy, after expenditures such as RMB10.9m on share options and benefits (vs RMB3.6m in 23H1);

•Ex-nonrecurring net profit of at least RMB90m, up more than 95.5% yoy.


Key factors: the company attributes the handsome net profit to these drivers:

•Tutoring hours increased, which augmented revenue growth;

•Operating efficiency and profitability improvements.


政策提及教育和培訓消費,指引健康發展

近日國務院印發《關於促進服務消費高質量發展的意見》,提及教育和培訓消費:推動高等院校、科研機構、社會組織開放優質教育資源,滿足社會大衆多元化、個性化學習需求;推動職業教育提質增效,建設高水平職業學校和專業;推動社會培訓機構面向公衆需求提高服務質量。


指導學校按照有關規定通過購買服務等方式引進具有相應資質的第三方機構提供非學科類優質公益課後服務;鼓勵與國際知名高等院校在華開展高水平合作辦學。


我們認爲,此次提及教育和培訓消費或具一定代表意義,行業需求狀態紮實背景下,鼓勵健康發展或具長遠積極信號;隨着運營環境的改善,頭部機構有望因此受益,獲得正面成長。


Policy steers healthy growth of educational and vocational training consumption

The State Council released a white paper to steer the quality development of China’s consumer service industry, including educational and vocational training:

•Educational: the council seeks to raise the quality of educational resources at colleges and universities, scientific research institutions and social organizations so as to fulfill the diverse as well as personalized learning requirements of the general public.

•Vocational training: in this segment, the white paper guides quality and efficiency improvements such as building high-tier schools for specialized trades, as well as encouraging consumer training institutions to improve their service quality so as to meet the requirements of the general public.


3P expertise: the policy guides that schools involve third-party providers with the necessary qualifications to deliver quality non-academic public welfare services such as after-school care. They could either purchase these services or use other ways that are in accordance with regulations; as such, the schools are encouraged to engage in high-level collaborations with internationally renowned universities in China.


Our take: we believe the policy paper’s inclusion of education and training consumption carries representative significance. Healthy industry development would raise beneficial long-term prospects in light of strong industry demand. We believe the resulting improvements in the operating environment will benefit market leaders in their growth trajectory.


主營業務勢頭良好,非學科素養成效喜人

公司主營業務於24H1保持盈利並展現良好增長勢頭,且公司近年來積極推行業務轉型,自2021年秋季推出多種非學科素養課程,目前成效喜人。


此外,公司積極探索並推出遊學業務及國際課程等舉措;暑假以來,公司已舉辦英國、日本、美國等多項高校遊學活動。我們認爲,此舉有望拓寬公司收入基礎,爲長遠發展帶來貢獻。


Scholar’s steady core business of nonacademic courses yield gratifying results

Diverse personal development courses: the company’s core business remained profitable in a steady growth momentum in 24H1. It has sought to restructure the business by adding variety through the launch of nonacademic and personal development courses since the fall of 2021, which have had gratifying results.


Value-added enhancements: the company’s explorations have led it to roll out study tours and international courses. For the summer vacation season, Scholar organized university study tours in foreign locations such as the UK, Japan and the US. We believe the initiative widens the company’s revenue base and would contribute to its long-term development.


建立國際化戰略合作關係,打造新業務增長點

此前,思考樂妙維國際與新西蘭長灣中學簽署戰略合作協議,正式建立戰略合作關係,共同搭建相互學習的平臺。長灣中學獨家授權思考樂妙維國際在中國招生,並計劃在新西蘭長灣中學開設思考樂妙維國際校區。


未來,雙方將繼續深化合作,致力於爲學生提供更優質的教育體驗和更多的發展機會。我們認爲,雙方合作或將提供更多優質的國際教育資源和機會,促進中新兩國在教育領域的深度合作,或爲公司帶來新增長點。


Strategic NZ partnership set to add international business growth catalysts

The Scholar Miaowei International division signed a strategic cooperation agreement with New Zealand’s Long Bay College, by which their strategic partnership would co-build a mutual learning platform. Long Bay College exclusively authorizes Scholar Miaowei International to enroll students in China with plans to open the Scholar Miaowei International Campus in Long Bay College in New Zealand.


In the future, both parties plan to deepen cooperation and provide students with a better educational experience and more development opportunities. We believe the partnership will increase quality international education resources and opportunities. We believe that the strengthening of educational cooperation between China and New Zealand will add growth catalysts for Scholar.



投資建議/Investment Ideas



上調盈利預測,維持買入評級

基於公司24H1正面盈利公告,我們上調24-26年盈利預測。我們預計2024-26年全年收入分別爲9.8億人民幣、15.6億人民幣、22.0億人民幣(原值分別爲9.7億人民幣、13.5億人民幣、18.3億人民幣);調後淨利分別爲2.0億人民幣、2.7億人民幣、3.3億人民幣(原值分別爲1.4億人民幣、1.9億人民幣、2.3億人民幣);EPS分別爲0.36元人民幣/股、0.49元人民幣/股、0.60元人民幣/股(原值分別爲0.25元人民幣/股、0.34元人民幣/股、0.42元人民幣/股);對應PE分別爲13、9、8x。


Valuation and risks

We raised our 2024/25/26E earnings forecast in light of Scholar’s 24H1E profit alert. We now expect revenue to come at RMB980m/1.56bn/2.20bn in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB970m/1.35bn/1.83bn); with adjusted net profit at RMB200m/ 270m/330m (previously RMB140m/190m/230m). This implies EPS of RMB0.36/0.49/0.60 (previously RMB0.25/0.34/ 0.42), corresponding to PE of 13x/9x/8x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 政策風險;管理風險;運營成本上升風險;業績預告僅爲初步測算,具體以公司財報爲準。


Risks include: policy risks; management risks; and rising operating costs. Note: our forecast is based on Scholar’s preliminary financial data and is subject to the release of the company’s final results.


Email: [email protected]

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