英文早点丨0623 - 2018世界杯谁最有可能夺冠？经济学人用数据告诉你！

356 - Sylvia

356 - Sylvia

章鱼保罗，它生于英国，在德国长大，保罗在南非世界杯上已经"成功预测"了德国胜澳大利亚、加纳输给塞尔维亚的小组赛赛果。它预测的欧洲杯的赛事，命中率也有8成。出道两年的章鱼保罗在2008欧洲杯和2010世界杯两届大赛中，预测14次猜对13次、成功率飙升至92%，堪称不折不扣的"章鱼帝"。2008年1月26日出生于英国的多塞特，生活在德国的奥博豪森海洋馆，最爱食物为贻贝。2010年当地时间10月25晚间(北京时间10月26日上午)章鱼保罗在德国的奥博豪森水族馆去世，享年2岁半。

Tough-minded optimists approach problems with a can-do philosophy and emerge stronger from tragedies.----Seneca

If only Paul were still alive. Though he had never watched a game of football, learnt how to use a spreadsheet or issued a press release about his state-of-the-art machine-learning-based forecasts, he was globally renowned for his preternatural ability to predict results at major international tournaments.

Throughout the European Championship of 2008 and the World Cup of 2010 he was wrong on only two occasions. For Paul was an oracular octopus, who could prophesy the footballing future by choosing between two flag-bearing boxes containing oysters.

文本选自 ：The Economist

作者 ：J.T.

原文标题 ：Why predicting the winner of the World Cup is so difficult

原文发布时间 ：14 June 2018