今天晚上9点，Bilibili直播32181对本次会议进行点评，欢迎点击阅读原文直达直播间。
摘要
-
-
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有关就业市场，声明提及就业增速有所放缓，且
失业率小幅上升但“维持低位”
。Job gains
have moderated
, and the unemployment rate has
moved up but remains low.
-
有关通胀的措辞，形容高企的程度变为了
“somewhat”
，此前的
“modest futher progress”
转变为了“
some
further progress
”。Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
-
声明强调了联储的风险管理姿态是平衡的，注重双重使命的“两端”，而非此前的仅针对通胀的“
highly attentive to inflation risks
”。The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to
both sides
of its dual mandate.
-
鲍威尔在问答环节的开始就强调了9月
有可能降息
，但
前提是看到数据总体性地另联储满意，而非基于单个数据点做出政策反应
。似乎并
不愿意
给市场设定
9月降息作为基准情形（提到0次或几次都是可行的
）。
-
发布会中鲍威尔给人感觉意图
保持风险平衡姿态的绝对中性
，而非暴露鸽派的降息倾向。笔者的观感是，本次会议结果和发布会的表态鲍威尔
中性偏鹰派
，
但市场的认知似乎是偏鸽派的
，声明的边际变化和口吻都倾向于强调“数据依赖性”和“综合考量双重使命”，
并不像上半年有明显鸽派倾向，即完全没有显露出9月降息的迫切感
。
-
美股市场在发布会期间保持强势，纳指强势反弹3%，美债收益率及美元指数则在发布会期间下跌。
-
笔者认为，联储可能会
在今年8月的杰克逊霍尔会议上进一步明确降息的条件
，届时鲍威尔也将获得更多充分的数据支持。
声明原文（粗体为关键变化）
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.
Job gains have
moderated
, and the unemployment rate
has moved up but remains low
. Inflation has eased over the past year
but remains somewhat elevated
. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。就业增长有所放缓，失业率有所上升，但仍然较低。通货膨胀在过去一年中有所缓解，但仍有点偏高。近几个月来，在实现委员会2%的通胀目标方面又取得了一些进展。
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee
is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
委员会力求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀率。委员会判断，实现其就业和通胀目标的风险继续趋于平衡。经济前景不明朗，委员会关注其双重任务中的两方面风险。
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
