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来源：国际投行研究报告
Today's quarterly Politburo economic meeting highlighted increased external challenges and pledged to meet 2018 economic targets. It plans to implement prudent monetary policy, while maintaining proactive fiscal policy to support domestic demand (particularly infrastructure capex). That said, China will continue with deleveraging at a measured pace and housing curbs with cityspecific policy.
今天的经济会议强调对外增加挑战和承诺，以满足2018个经济目标。它计划实施
稳健的货币政策，同时保持积极的财政政策支持国内需求（特别是基础设施资本支出）。也就是说，中国会以一定速度继续去杠杆化，住房限制与城市特定政策。
The meeting was less dovish than the market expected, as it reiterated the deleveraging slogan and vowed to maintain tightening on the property sector, echoing our view that recent policy easing measures are defensive in nature. It also suggests policymakers are not sacrificing structural adjustment agenda to stimulate stronger growth, and significant easing as in 2009/15 is less likely. We thus maintain our view that policymakers target to maintain a neutral stance and stabilize broad credit growth at ~11% in 2H. If trade tensions escalate, policymakers could adopt more fiscal and monetary easing.
这次会议不像市场预期的那样温和，因为它重申了去杠杆化口号，誓言要保持对房地产行业的紧缩，我们认为，最近的政策放松措施本质上是防御性的。它同时也暗示政策制定者不会牺牲结构调整议程。
刺激更强劲的增长，2009/15的大幅宽松是不太可能的。我们因此，我们认为政策制定者的目标是保持中立立场。
稳定的信贷增长在2h内达到11%，如果贸易紧张升级，政策制定者可以采取更多的财政和货币宽松政策。
Over the last few weeks, China has announced a slew of easing measures in quick succession. We have seen a cut in the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) for commercial banks, some easing of regulatory norms to support broader credit growth, a call for more proactive fiscal policy, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds to support infrastructure investment. These steps seem at odds with the tightening path that policy-makers have pursued since April 2016 and have provoked many questions from investors.
In a nutshell, we think China’s easing is defensive in nature, aimed at sustaining a moderate pace of growth, and not a shift to an offensive stance (i.e., to accelerate GDP growth). Nonetheless, it signals a readiness to act. If trade tensions create a meaningful risk to growth, we should expect a much more vigorous – though still defensive – policy response.
在过去的几周里，中国宣布了一连串的宽松措施。我们看到商业银行的准备金率下调（RRR），一些放松监管规范以支持更广泛的信贷增长，呼吁更积极的财政政策，并加速发行地方政府债券来支持基础设施投资。这些措施似乎与政策制定者自2016年4月以来采取的紧缩措施不符，并引发了投资者的许多问题。
简而言之，我们认为中国的宽松政策本质上是防御性的，旨在维持适度的增长速度，而不是转向进攻性的立场（即加速GDP增长）。尽管如此，它表明了行动的准备。如果贸易紧张给经济增长带来了一个有意义的风险，我们应该期待一个更加有力的——尽管仍然是防御性的——政策回应。
