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京東集團-SW: 24Q2業績點評:盈利端改善明顯,堅持用戶體驗後勁顯現

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-09-04 20:25

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JD.com

(9618 HK)


24Q2業績點評:盈利端改善明顯,堅持用戶體驗後勁顯現


24Q2E review: profitability improvement stabilizes; emerging edge on user experience enhancements


BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

事件: 北京時間2024年8月15日,京東集團(9618.SW)發佈2024年第二季度業績報告。2024年第二季度,公司實現營業收入2914億元,同比增長1.2%;其中,商品收入2339億元,同比基本持平;服務收入575億元,同比增長6.3%。


從費用端來看,2024年第二季度研發/銷售/管理/履約費用率分別爲1.44%/4.07%/0.73%/5.91%,23年同期爲1.41%/ 3.84%/0.82%/5.79%,分別變化+0.03/+0.23/-0.09/+0.12pct。利潤端表現超預期:2024年第二季度Non-GAAP淨利潤爲145億元,同比增長69.0%,Non-GAAP淨利潤率首次達到5%,同比優化2.0pct。公司加碼股東回報,回購穩步推進:年初至2024年8月15日期間,公司回購共計6800萬股ADS,總額爲21億美元,回購的股份總數約爲其截至2024年3月31日流通在外普通股的4.5%。今年上半年京東通過派息和回購總共合計約45億美金。運營數據方面,公司聚焦長期供應鏈能力的完善和用戶體驗的提升。2024年二季度,京東供應鏈基數設施資產規模達1560億元,同比增長11%。季度活躍用戶數、用戶購物頻次繼續保持雙位數增長。


24Q2E non-GAAP net profit jumped 69% yoy with unprecedented 5% net margin

Revenue: JD.com recently released unaudited results for 24Q2E with net revenue at RMB291.4bn, up 1.2% yoy, comprising:

•Merchandise revenue of RMB233.9bn, basically flat yoy; while

•Services generated RMB57.5bn, up 6.3% yoy.


Expense ratios: R&D 1.44% (up 0.03ppt yoy); sales 4.07% (up 0.23ppt); administrative 0.73% (down 0.09ppt); and compliance 5.91% (up 0.12ppt).


Profitability: non-GAAP net profit surpassed expectations at RMB14.5bn, up 69.0% yoy; with non-GAAP net margin expanding 2.0ppt yoy to reach 5% for the first time.


Buybacks and dividends: JD increased shareholder returns and continued with share repurchases, buying back 68m ADS for a total of USD2.1bn in the year through 15 Aug 2024, which represents about 4.5% of common shares outstanding as of 31 March 2024. JD.com forked out USD4.5bn in total on both dividend payments and share repurchases in 24H1.


Operations: the company boosted supply chain capabilities for the long term to improve the user experience:

•Supply chain facility assets amounted to RMB156bn in 24Q2E, up 11% yoy.

•Quarterly active users and user purchase frequency maintain double-digit growth.


京東零售:大商超品類高速增長,商家生態持續優化

2024年第二季度,京東零售收入達2571億元,同比增長1.5%,超市場預期;經營利潤達101.08億元,同比增加3.9%,表現好於市場預期。分品類來看,1)電子產品及家用電器品類收入1450.61億元,同比下滑4.6%。上半年以來,京東已與20多個省市合力推動家電家居以舊換新,京東618期間帶動超700個品牌成交額同比增長超100%。我們認爲,隨着以舊換新政策落地釋放存量需求,公司帶電品類有望持續獲取市場份額。2)日用百貨品類收入888億元,同比提升8.7%,高於行業平均水平,品類結構更加均衡。同時,公司不斷優化商家生態的運營效率和成本。2024年第二季度,京東新增第三方商家數量環比一季度提升46%,京東“春曉計劃”上半年已升級AI開店等32條扶持舉措,助力第三方商家增長提效。2024年第二季度,公司大商超類實現GMV雙位數增長,有望成爲集團增長的關鍵引擎。運營方面,1)AI助力商家提質增效。AIGC內容生成平臺已幫助 14萬 第三方商家將店鋪運營製作效率提升 90% 以上。2)用戶體驗構築三方商家核心競爭力。二季度,公司通過規模效應和採購效率持續提升,在保證質量的前提下,爲用戶帶來天天低價。京東百億補貼在二季度上線美妝加贈之後,8月進一步加大力度,投入超30億元聚焦美妝全品類,並其表示上不封頂。在生態繁榮的帶動下,公司二季度用戶數穩健增長,用戶參與度繼續向好。我們認爲,生態建設的完善有望進一步降低獲客成本,用戶體驗提升或驅動訂單量、活躍用戶數增長,從而實現業績正循環。


Retail: large supermarket business on the rise; firming merchant ecosystem

JD.com’s retail revenue reached RMB257.1bn in 24Q2E, up 1.5% yoy and surpassing market expectations. Operating profit came in better than the market had expected at RMB10.11bn, up 3.9% yoy. A product category breakdown shows:

•Electronic products and household appliances brought in RMB145.06bn in revenue, down 4.6% yoy. JD worked with more than 20 provinces and cities to promote home appliance trade-ins from H1 onward. During the 618 promotions, more than 700 brands grew turnover by over 100% yoy. We believe JD’s electrical products will increase market share as its trade-in policy drives up demand and helps digests inventories.

•Daily necessities: on a better product mix, revenue grew 8.7% yoy to RMB88.8bn, outperforming the industry average.


3P merchants: JD drilled down merchant ecosystem costs and tightened their operational efficiency in 24Q2. The number of new third-party merchants increased 46% qoq in H1 as JD upgraded 32 merchant support measures under its Spring Dawn program, such as AI-aided store openings, to drive their growth with better efficiency.


Supermarkets: JD’s supermarkets division effected double-digit GMV growth in 24Q2E and we expect the business will become a major growth engine for the company.


Operational metrics:

•Merchants: AI tools help merchants improve quality and efficiency. The AIGC content generation platform helped 140,000 3P merchants raise efficiencies in their store operations and improved productivity by more than 90%.

•User experience enhancement adds to the core competitiveness of JD’s 3P merchants. The company raised scale effects and procurement efficiency in Q2, which enabled it to offer users low prices every day while retaining its quality goods premise. After launching the beauty and cosmetics gift program under the RMB10bn subsidy plan in Q2, JD stepped up efforts in August by investing more than RMB3bn to increase coverage to all beauty categories without limits. The booming ecosystem saw user numbers rising steadily in Q2 and user engagement increased. We believe the ecosystem buildout will keep drilling down customer acquisition cost. We reckon user experience enhancements will drive growth in orders and active users toward a healthy profit cycle.


京東物流:收入超市場預期,供應鏈保持全球領先優勢

2024年第二季度,京東物流收入達442億元,同比增長7.7%;經營利潤爲21.83億元,高於市場預期的9.09億元。截至二季度,京東供應鏈基礎設施資產規模達1560億元,同比增長11%。在全球已擁有近100個保稅倉庫、直郵倉庫和海外倉庫,京東快遞國際業務最快3日可送達歐美主要國家,ochama在荷蘭推出小時達,保持供應鏈全球領先優勢。我們認爲,隨着公司全球供應鏈網絡的完善,以一站式服務助力中國品牌出海,外部一體化供應鏈客戶數量或穩步提升。


Logistics: revenue trumps expectations; supply chain sustains global leadership

JD Logistics generated revenue of RMB44.2bn in 24Q2E, up 7.7% yoy, while operating profit was RMB2.18bn, much better than the market’s RMB909m expectation. Supply chain infrastructure assets amounted to RMB156bn in Q2E, up 11% yoy.

•JD Express has nearly 100 bonded warehouses, direct mail warehouses and foreign warehouses around the world, which allows it to deliver to major European and US regions within 3 days.

•Ochama launched a 1-hour delivery service in the Netherlands and maintained its global supply chain edge. As JD’s global supply chain network and one-stop services bring Chinese brands to international markets, we believe integrated external supply chain customer numbers will increase steadily.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 我們認爲,隨着24全年整體消費穩中向好,公司各品類增長有望重回健康增速,公司核心帶電品類有望持續獲得市場份額,商超品類重回良性增長。同時,考慮到盈利端改善明顯,堅持用戶體驗後勁顯現,我們預計京東2024-2026年收入爲11,510 /12,549 /13,183億元(前值分別爲11,527/ 12,567/13,187億元),同比增長6.1% / 9.0% / 5.1%;調整2024-2026年歸屬股東淨利潤(Non-GAAP)分別爲475 /506 /519億元(前值分別爲373/427/446億元)。長期來看,IP和3P全盤統籌與公司推進的價格競爭力策略協同,疊加下沉策略不斷推進獲客,我們長期持續看好公司供應鏈和物流核心能力的發展潛力,維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

As total consumption growth stabilizes in 2024E, we believe JD will resume a healthy growth profile across the various product categories. We expect the core electrical products business will gain market share and supermarkets will return to healthy growth. In view of visible profitability improvements and emerging user experience effects, we tweak our forecast to revenue of RMB1.15tr/1.25tr/1.32tr in 2024/25/26E (previously RMB1.15tr/1.26tr/1.32tr), up 6.1/9.0/5.1%; with adjusted non-GAAP net profit at RMB47.5bn/50.6bn/51.9bn (previously RMB37.3bn/42.7bn/44.6bn). For the long term, we expect JD will synergize competitive pricing and lower-tier-city penetration strategies in both the 1P and 3P businesses to boost customer acquisitions. We remain bullish about long-term growth prospects based on its core supply chain and logistics strength. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 政策監管風險;電商行業競爭加劇;海外上市監管政策風險;業績預測或與實際值存在差異,請以公司公告爲準。


Risks include: policy and regulatory risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; and regulatory risks for foreign-listed stocks. Note: our forecasts are only for reference and subject to the release of the company’s actual financial results.



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