公司發佈2023年報、2024年一季報
24Q1收入67.6億元，同增9.8%；歸母淨利0.58億元，同增121.1%，扭虧爲盈；扣非歸母-2.26億元，同增30.9%；24Q1非經共2.8億元，其中非流動性資產處置損益（包括已計提資產減值準備的沖銷部分）2.4億元，主要系處置出售御景酒店股權。
23Q4收入68.9億，同增3.6%；歸母淨利-5.1億，同減900%；扣非歸母-6.9億，同減33.7%。23年收入266.1億，同減16.9%；歸母淨利-12.8億，同減776.9%；扣非歸母-19.4億，同減437.3%，2023年非經常性損益6.6億，其中非流動性資產處置損益4.3億元
2023 and 24Q1E performance: weak demand hurt 2023; asset disposal swung Q1E
Key metrics:
Chenming Paper recently released final 2023 results as well as unaudited 24Q1E results:
•23Q4:
revenue in the last quarter of last year amounted to RMB6.89bn (up 3.6% yoy), while a sharp drop in profits led to a net loss of RMB510m (down 900% yoy) and ex-nonrecurring net loss of RMB690m (down 33.7% yoy).
•2023:
this brought full-year revenue to RMB26.61bn (down 16.9%) and a net loss of RMB1.28bn (down 776.9%) with ex-nonrecurring net loss at RMB1.94bn (down 437.3%). Non-recurring items posted gains of RMB660m, including RMB430m from the disposal of non-current assets.
•24Q1E:
net earnings improved 121.1% yoy and turned the loss trend to profit of RMB58m, on revenue of RMB6.76bn (up 9.8% yoy). Ex-nonrecurring net loss softened to RMB226m (up 30.9% yoy) on non-recurring gains of RMB280m, which included RMB240m gains from disposing of non-current assets such as shares in Yujing Hotel, along with writing off previous asset impairment provisions.
2023年內由於造紙行業下游需求疲軟，公司機制紙銷量同比減少；同時，疊加新增產能集中投放影響，機制紙的價格特別是白卡紙價格同比大幅減少，而木片、原煤、化工等原材料價格仍高位運行，擠壓公司盈利空間。
Results takeaways:
we believe that the key drag factor in Chenming’s machine-made paper sales in 2023 was weak downstream demand in the papermaking industry. New production capacity concentration also led machine-made paper prices to plunge, particularly in white cardboard. A third factor was persistently high prices of raw materials like wood chips, raw coal and chemicals, which squeezed the company’s profit margins.
分產品
，雙膠紙/白卡紙/靜電紙/銅版紙/防粘原紙/熱敏紙/其他機制紙收入分別爲77.02/54.78/40.06/39.26/11.28/5.54/11.0億元，同比增幅分別爲-8.8%/-40%/-1.8%/-5.4%/+15.8%/-5%/-0.3%；
分地區，
中國大陸收入200.82億元，同減15.8%，佔比75.5%；其他國家和地區65.26億元，同減19.9%，佔比24.5%。
Revenue streams:
we look at segmental revenues in 2023 and their growth rates:
•Products:
offset printing paper generated RMB7.70bn, down 8.8%; white cardboard RMB5.48bn, down 40%; electrostatic paper RMB4.01bn, down 1.8%; coated paper RMB3.93bn, down 5.4%; nonstick base paper RMB1.13bn, up 15.8%; thermal paper RMB554m, down 5%; and other machine-made papers RMB1.10bn, down 0.3%.
•Markets:
China generated RMB20.082bn last year, down 15.8% and accounting for 75.5% of total revenue; and the remaining market regions collectively brought in RMB6.53bn, down 19.9% yoy and accounting for 24.5% of the total.
23年毛利率8.13%，同減6.3pct，淨利率-4.99%，同減5.98pct
公司23年毛利率8.13%，同減6.3pct，淨利率-4.99%，同減5.98pct；年內，公司總費率15.4%，同增1.6pct。其中，銷售費率0.9%，同增0.1pct；管理費率2.6%，同增0.3pct；財務費率7.6%，同增0.9pct；研發費率4.4%，同增0.3pct。
造紙行業作爲典型順週期行業，其景氣程度與宏觀經濟走勢呈現正相關。當前我國經濟發展呈向好態勢，隨着國家宏觀經濟政策持續發力，造紙行業下游需求將逐步回暖，短期的供需矛盾將得到一定緩解，行業景氣度有望提升；同時，公司將積極通過調整產品結構、擴大出口、提高生產效率、控制生產成本以及處置非主業資產等措施提質增效，提高盈利能力。
Profitability:
•Margins:
gross profit margin narrowed 6.3ppt to 8.13% in 2023, while the company had a net loss margin of 4.99%, declining 5.98ppt.
•Expense ratios:
total expense ratio was 15.4% in 2023, rising 1.6ppt. A segmental breakdown shows sales expense ratio at 0.9% (up 0.1ppt), management expense ratio at 2.6% (up 0.3ppt), financial expense ratio at 7.6% (up 0.9ppt) and R&D expense ratio at 4.4% (up 0.3ppt).
Outlook:
papermaking is a typical pro-cyclical industry and its performance correlates closely with macroeconomic trends. In view of China’s economic growth being currently on an uptrend and its implementation of macroeconomic policies, we expect downstream demand will pick up. This would help alleviate the short-term supply-demand imbalance and improve industry profitability. Chenming is lining up its defenses to take measures that would boost profitability, like restructuring the product mix, expanding exports and raising production efficiency, and production cost controls and non-core asset disposals. We take a closer look at its revival plan for 2024E:
2024年公司經營規劃：
1）加強銷售管理，搶抓市場增厚公司效益
2024年公司將搶抓市場機遇，加強渠道建設，加大直銷客戶開發，加強海外簽約管理；以市場爲導向，積極尋找效益增長點，密切對接生產部門開發生產高檔高附加值的新產品，做好重點產品特別是液包卡、食品卡、銅版卡等的推廣和增量工作；優化業務流程，增加風險機控點，每季度對流程進行一次梳理，加強風險管控。
2）精進財務管理，多措並舉壓降負債規模
2024年，公司將以此爲契機，調整長中短期融資結構，確定最佳融資方案，拓寬融資渠道，進一步深化與大型銀行的合作，落實項目貸款、設備融資、債轉股融資及權益性融資；實時關注國家宏觀經濟政策的解讀，合理進行稅收籌劃，落實政策紅利；持續壓縮融資租賃業務規模，積極處置閒置、低效資產，盤活現有資產，增加現金流入。
3）優化採購管理，穩定供應實現降本增效
公司將進一步豐富原材物料採購渠道，深化木漿、木片、煤炭等大宗物資原料的長協合作，改善與供應商的合作方式，重點開發資金實力雄厚的供應商，創新支付方式，節降財務成本；繼續學習新技術、新工藝，引進高性價比原材物料，優化原料結構；合理控貨，根據月度排產計劃安排採購計劃，減少資金佔用。
Three-pronged plan for 2024E: manage sales, finances, procurements and costs
(1) Sales management, channel buildout and better profitability:
•Business mix:
seize market opportunities, strengthen the channel mix, increase direct-sales customer growth and improve management of foreign contracts.
•Profit catalysts:
in the interest of being market oriented, seek profit growth catalysts and connect closely with production departments to develop and produce new high-end and high-value-added products, while pushing for higher volumes of key products, especially the liquid, food and copper plate cardboards.
•Business processes:
streamline business processes, increase risk control points and review business processes every quarter to strengthen risk management.
(2) Financial management and reducing the debt burden:
•Financing facilities:
reshape the short, medium and long-term financing structures, determine the most optimal financing plans, broaden financing channels, deepen ties with large banks and implement project loans, equipment financing, debt-to-equity financing and equity financing.
•Policy watch:
note the interpretation of national macroeconomic policies in real time and carry out rational tax planning, while implementing policy dividends.
•Cash and assets:
compress the financial leasing business scale, proactively dispose of idle or inefficient assets, revitalize assets and increase cash inflows.
(3) Procurements and supply pipeline to curb costs and lift efficiency
•Procurements:
enhance raw material procurement channels, deepen long-term cooperation on bulk materials like wood pulp, wood chips and coal, firm up ties with suppliers, develop financially strong suppliers and innovate payment methods to reduce financial costs.
•New raw materials:
learn new technologies and processes and introduce cost-effective raw materials to optimize the raw material mix.
•Inventory:
manage inventory sensibly by using procurement plans that line up with monthly production schedules to reduce the utilization of funds.
