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亞瑪芬體育(AS US):FY24收入靠指引上限,加速成長可期

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2025-02-05 17:17

正文

亞瑪芬體育

Amer Sports

(AS US)


FY24收入靠指引上限,加速成長可期


Preliminary 2024E results takeaways: revenue at upper end of guidance range; growth set to accelerate

買入(維持評級)

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

Amer 發佈FY2024業績預告

公司預計FY2024全年營收增長率將處於此前指引區間(16-17%)的高端,預計全年調整后營業利潤率將處於此前指引區間(10.5-11.0%)的高端。


此外,FY24Q4已償還全部12億美元的未償還定期貸款,並預計FY2025調整后的凈財務成本約為1.2億美元,此前的指引為1.8-1.9億美元。


公司成長勢能確認

儘管FY24Q4不利的外匯匯率波動帶來的阻力不斷加大,但公司預計品牌組合在FY24Q4依然實現了強勁的增長和盈利,表明其品牌組合具有較強市場競爭力。同時,近期的融資舉措以及第四季度強勁的現金轉換能力,使公司能夠在年底前償還一半以上的債務,顯著降低了資產負債表的槓桿率。


公司預計未來在旗艦品牌始祖鳥(Arc’teryx)和薩洛蒙(Salomon)鞋類產品持續全球擴張的引領下,有能力實現可持續的長期增長和利潤率提升。


公司榮膺“2025中國傑出僱主”

2025年1月,傑出僱主調研機構(Top Employers Institute)發佈“2025中國傑出僱主”榜單,公司憑藉卓越的人才發展戰略、創新員工關懷計劃以及深厚的企業文化等多方面突出表現榮膺“中國傑出僱主”。以“2025中國傑出僱主”這一榮譽為新起點,公司將持續深化人才發展戰略,吸引多元化優秀人才,強化卓越僱主品牌,打造運動行業的標杆典範。


公司全球團隊將品牌和強大執行力相結合,推動毛利率和營業利潤率增長。Arc'teryx品牌利潤最高,增長強勁,加上球拍和冬季運動器材的改善趨勢,使得上調全年銷售額和收益指引。


公司同時對2025年初步展望充滿信心,即低中兩位數年收入增長,以及在毛利率擴張推動下實現30-70基點的年度調整后OPM增長。


Amer Sports clinched an industry accolade as one of China’s top employers more days after it released a rosier preview of 2024E results. Amid volatile FX headwinds in 24Q4, its strong stable of brands drew solid performances across all markets and categories. We maintain our BUY call.


The gist: BUY

·Revenue and OPM set to touch top end of guidance range on brand growth

·Repaid USD1.2bn in outstanding term loans despite currency headwinds

·Lands Top Employer certification for best workplace practices


2024E preliminary results: rosier expectations ahead of final results report

Key financials: Amer Sports (AS) released preliminary results for 2024E on 13 Jan, ahead of its final results release slated for 25 Feb. AS expects:

· Revenue growth could come in at the high end of its previously announced 16-17% guidance range; and

· Adjusted operating margin could touch the top end of its 10.5-11.0% guidance range.


Paid off loans: the company said it fully repaid USD1.2bn in outstanding term loans during 24Q4. It now expects adjusted net financial costs for 2025E to be about USD120m (vs the guided USD180-190m).


Solid growth across the board in all markets and businesses

Brand strength: despite growing headwinds from unfavorable fluctuations in FX rates in 24Q4, AS expects its brand portfolio drive strong growth and profitability, which is indicative of its brands’ sharp competitive edge in the market.


Lower leverage: recent financing initiatives and strong cash conversions also enabled the company to repay more than half of its debt before the 2024 year-end, which significantly reduced leverage on the balance sheet.


Outlook: the company expects sustainable long-term growth that would continue to widen profit margins as it expands the global market for Arc’teryx and Salomon, its flagship footwear brands.


Milestone accolade: international recognition as a China Top Employer 2025

AS has been named among 157 organizations in China as a Top Employer for 2025 by the Top Employers Institute, an internationally recognized certification authority that showcases excellence in manpower practices at organizations that meet its rigorous standards. The company earned the accolade for its commitment to fostering best human resource strategies and practices. It excels in many areas, including talent development, employee welfare and nurturing a vibrant workplace culture. Moving ahead, AS plans to keep grooming and attracting top talent, strengthening its employer brand and establishing strong benchmarks for the sports industry.


Strong execution: its global team is able to drive margin expansion by tapping strong brand power and execution capabilities. The company’s most profitable brand, Arc’teryx, enjoys robust growth, backed by improving trends in rackets and winter sports equipment, which led the company to boost its guidance for full-year sales and earnings.


Outlook: AS is confident of achieving double-digit revenue growth in 2025E and gross margin expansion, which would help widen adjusted operating profit margin by 30-70ppt.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持買入評級

Amer Sports是一家全球性的標誌性運動和戶外品牌集團,旗下擁有始祖鳥(Arc'teryx)、薩洛蒙(Salomon)、威爾勝(Wilson)、Peak Performance、Atomic和Armada等品牌。公司旗下品牌以精湛工藝、堅持原創和高端市場定位而聞名。作為卓越服裝、鞋類和設備的創造者,公司憑藉尖端創新、性能和設計,助力精英運動員和普通消費者都能發揮最佳水準。預計公司24-26年收入分別為51億美元、58億美元、67億美元; 歸母利潤為1.7億美元、3.2億美元、4.4億美元; 對應EPS分別為0.35美元/股、0.66美元/股、0.90美元/股; 對應PE分別為85X、45X、33X。


Valuation and risks

Executive summary: the AS stable of sports and outdoor brands include Arc’teryx, Salomon, Wilson, Peak Performance, Atomic and Armada. We tend to agree with the company that its brands are recognized in the market for premium quality and functionality, originality and craftsmanship. Through cutting-edge innovation, performance and design, AS aims to empower both professional athletes and everyday consumers of its extensive range of apparel, footwear and equipment to achieve their best in their fields.


Valuation: we maintain our 2024/25/26E forecasts at USD5.1bn/5.8bn/6.7bn revenue and USD170m/320m/440m net profit, which imply EPS of USD0.35/0.66/0.90 and PE of 85x/45x/33x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示 行業競爭加劇風險; 供應鏈相關風險; 商品價格風險; 通貨膨脹風險; 資金風險; 流動性風險; 現公告僅為業績預告,請以公司最終公告為準等。


Risks include: intensifying competition; supply chain risks; merchandise pricing risks; inflation risks; capital risks; and liquidity risks. Note: The preliminary results reflect the company’s expectations and serve only as a prelude to its final results announcement.



Email: [email protected]

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