【经济学人】德国的原子弹丨2017年3月9日丨总第833期

IT BEGAN in November, soon after the election of Donald Trump as America’s president. The publisher of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a conservative newspaper, opined in an editorial that it was time to contemplate “the altogether unthinkable for a German brain, the question of a nuclear deterrence capability, which could make up for doubts about American guarantees”. Roderich Kiesewetter, a foreign-policy expert in the Christian Democratic Union, the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, chimed in that there should be no “thought taboos”. He and other politicians then went silent, apparently after a signal that the chancellor did not need this distraction in an election year. But in Germany’s think-tanks the debate kept raging.

德国想拥有核武器的想法在11月初见端倪，也就是在唐纳德特朗普当选美国总统不久后。风格偏于保守的德国《法兰克福汇报》的一篇社论表示：“如果特朗普不为欧洲提供核安全保障，德国是时候考虑一下如何拥有自己的核威慑能力”。Angela Merkel总理领导的基督教民主联盟的外交政策专家Roderich Kiesewetter对此赞同，并表示关于核武器不应该存在什么“思想禁忌”。但随后由于总理忙于选举，无法分心对此事投入过多精力，Roderich Kiesewetter和其他政客的态度转为沉默。但是，在德国国内的智囊团，他们对此的辩论正在变得越来越激烈。

• Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung：《法兰克福汇报》（德语原名：Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung，缩写：FAZ）是一份德国的全国性日报，报社总部位于美因河畔法兰克福。报纸的法人形式是有限责任公司，独立的FAZIT基金会为报纸的主要持有人，报纸本身则独立于任何政党或组织。《法兰克福汇报》的风格偏向自由保守主义。该报拥有自己的通讯员网络来采编新闻，在编辑上则不设主编，而是由五名发行人集体决定编辑方针。《法兰克福汇报》日发行量超过35万份，是德国发行量最大的报纸之一。同时该报也在所有的德国严肃报纸中拥有最高的国外知名度。

Since 1945 West Germany and then the reunited country have relied on the American nuclear shield to deter aggression from Russia. A prominent thesis, outlined in 1984 by Josef Joffe, a journalist, holds that European integration was only possible because this external American power had “pacified” the age-old Franco-German conflicts. So West Germany, on its best behaviour after the war, signed the non-proliferation treaty in the 1960s; it reaffirmed the pledge in the treaty that led to reunification in 1990.

自从1945年的西德和之后的统一的德国都依靠美国的核庇护来阻止俄罗斯的侵略。记者Josef Joffe在1984年的一篇文章中概述道，美国的势力使得法德之间长久以来的冲突得以平息，这使得欧洲一体化成为现实。二战后由于西德的良好表现，即在1960年签署了《核不扩散条约》。西德重申了条约里的承诺，这些承诺促使德国在1990年实现统一。

• European integration：欧洲一体化

• non-proliferation treaty：《核不扩散条约》

Suddenly, however, there is an American president who, though he said last week that he would “strongly support NATO”, has also called the alliance “obsolete” and suggested that his support might be conditional on allies meeting their commitments to spend more on defence. By the ghastly logic of mutual assured destruction (MAD), deterrence must be unconditional to be credible. Countries in eastern and central Europe are beginning to fret about their vulnerability to nuclear blackmail by Russia under Vladimir Putin.（读者试译句）

然而，即使美国总统上周表示他强烈支持北约，但是现在他却认为北约联盟已经过时，并且表示只有同盟国加大对国防的投入，他才会继续支持北约。由于共同毁灭原则的可怕逻辑，所以核威胁毫无疑问会成功。“期待您的翻译，将您的理解留言在文章下方留言处，第二天将会有长难句解析哟～”

• mutual assured destruction :相互保证毁灭，简称M.A.D.机制，亦称共同毁灭原则）是一种“俱皆毁灭”性质的军事战略思想，是一种冷战对峙政策，而且效果绝佳。对立的两方中如果有一方全面使用核武器则两方都会被毁灭，被称为“恐怖平衡”。

• nuclear blackmail ：核讹诈（指拥有核打击力量的某个国家或军事集团，利用拥有的核武器对其他国家进行的以核攻击为背景的恐吓或威胁行为。

Germany’s most obvious response would be to approach France and Britain, NATO’s other two nuclear powers, for a shared deterrent. But their arsenals are small. France, moreover, has so far been unwilling to cede any sovereignty over its nuclear arms and has always been sceptical about shared deterrence. Britain, as its prime minister, Theresa May, has already hinted, might make its nuclear shield a subject of negotiation during the upcoming Brexit talks.

因为法国和英国是拥有核武器的北约国家，德国为了与其共享核威慑，于是就开始亲近法国和英国。但是他们的军火库规模很小，更何况法国至今不愿意放弃核武器的主权，并且一直对共享核威慑持怀疑态度。英国首相Theresa May暗示，打算利用防御核武器的能力作为即将到来脱欧谈判的重要筹码。

To Maximilian Terhalle, a German professor currently teaching in Britain, this means that Germany, Poland or the Baltic countries could never fully rely on France or Britain retaliating against Russia for a strike against them. He concludes that Germany must think about getting its own nukes, perhaps in collaboration with neighbours. Even the leader of Poland’s governing party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a habitual Germanophobe, called in February for a European nuclear deterrent, presumably financed largely by Germany.

目前在英国教书的德国教授Maximilian Terhalle认为德国、波兰和其他波罗的海的国家绝不能完全依赖通过与英法共享核威慑来报复打击俄罗斯。他总结表示，德国应该考虑拥有自己的核弹，或许可以与邻国合作制造核弹。一向讨厌德国人的波兰执政党领导人Jaroslaw Kaczynski在二月要求要有欧洲的核威慑，德国可能会在资金上大力支持。

The different dangers posed by Mr Putin and Mr Trump have raised the question of “how to deter whom with what”, even though German nukes are not the best answer, says Karl-Heinz Kamp of the Federal Academy for Security Policy, a government think-tank. Mr Terhalle, for his part, thinks that even a debate about a German nuclear weapon could help—if it convinced Mr Trump to stop undermining the existing international order.

政府智囊团的联邦安全政策学院的Karl-Heinz Kamp表示，由普京造成的不同威胁，以及特朗普提出的“如何震慑，震慑谁，又靠什么来震慑”的问题，即使德国拥有了核弹并非最佳的解决方案，。Terhalle先生本人认为，即使是德国队拥有核武器的一些风声就能够起到帮助作用，可能会迫使特朗普停止破坏已有的国际秩序。

翻译 ▍栏目六第一组

审核 ▍Arias

编辑 ▍且听风吟