耶伦证词偏鸽派：通胀是一大不确定因素 未来加息空间不大（附讲稿全文）

摘要：7月12日，美联储主席耶伦在国会证词讲稿公布，耶伦称通胀对经济状况的反应是一大不确定因素，利率无需进一步升高太多即可达到中性状态。分析称，耶伦证词意味着美联储9月不会行动。

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7月12日，美联储主席耶伦在国会证词书面讲稿公布，耶伦称通胀对经济状况的反应是一大不确定因素，利率无需进一步升高太多即可达到中性状态。

针对近期较为疲软的通胀数据，耶伦在书面讲稿中指出，美联储密切关注通胀进展，对通胀持续低于2%的目标保持警惕，最近通胀稍有下降的部分原因在于有些项目价格出现异常下滑，这一表态与多数联储官员在6月FOMC会议的观点一致。耶伦强调，通胀是一大不确定性因素。

耶伦还认为，美国经济在二季度升温，预计经济在未来将继续温和增长，当前经济路径为进一步加息提供依据，利率无需进一步升高太多即可达到中性状态。未来几年则需要额外的渐进式加息。

至于缩表，耶伦的态度一如6月FOMC会议，称将在年内开始缩表，但表示资产负债表的最终规模暂未确定，还称不会将资产负债表用作主动政策工具。当月会议纪要显示，联储官员在何时启动缩表问题上存在意见分歧，并没有透露缩表启动的具体时间。证词公布前，瑞银报告称缩表细节可能在7月会议中决定。

耶伦书面证词基本符合市场预期，措辞偏鸽派，对通胀表示担忧，认为加息空间不大。分析认为，除非耶伦在问答环节给市场一个“惊喜”，十年期国债收益率不会变动太多。法巴银行Mortimer-Lee指出，耶伦证词意味着美联储9月不会行动。

北京时间周三22时，美联储主席耶伦将出席众议院听证会，随后则是与议员的问答环节；周四22时，耶伦还将出席参议院听证会。考虑到特朗普提名耶伦连任的可能性越来越小，这可能是耶伦任内最后一次在众议院金融服务委员会发表半年一次的汉弗莱-霍金斯证词。若耶伦不连任，其任期将在2018年2月结束。

华尔街见闻此前分析指出，众议院正考虑提出要求美联储制定指导货币政策数学规则的议案，但美联储上周在半年度货币政策报告中强调，过度依赖货币政策规则引发的潜在危害，预计本次听证会众议院将再度施压。

更多专业分析，详见《加息、缩表、连任……耶伦“最后的证词”有哪些看点？》

以下为耶伦讲稿要点：

• 通胀：美联储密切关注通胀进展，通胀对经济状况的反应是一大不确定因素。通胀率低于目标，最近有所下降，部分原因在于有些项目价格出现异常下滑。在这些项目被剔除之前，其价格的异常下滑将拖累12个月的通胀。美联储很可能在低通胀的情况下仍然退出刺激。

• 缩表：FOMC预计今年开始缩表。资产负债表的适当规模取决于一些未知因素，包括银行准备金的未来需求。

• 加息：利率无需进一步升高太多即可达到中性状态。当前经济路径料为进一步加息提供合理根据，未来几年需要额外的渐进式加息。

• 美联储政策：除了通胀，美国财政政策是另一个不确定性来源。美联储不打算将资产负债表用作主动政策工具，而是打算以政策利率作为主要货币政策工具，但若经济展望明显恶化提供足够理由时，将恢复使用资产负债表工具。

• 经济：美国经济在二季度升温，受益于家庭支出、企业投资及全球经济增强。围绕美国经济前景的风险大致平衡，投资已经转升，海外经济走强。预计未来几年经济继续温和增长。经济增速快于及慢于美联储当前预估水准的机率大致相当。
  

以下为耶伦证词讲稿全文：

Chairman Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Since my appearance before this committee in February, the labor market has continued to strengthen. Job gains have averaged 180,000 per month so far this year, down only slightly from the average in 2016 and still well above the pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force. Indeed, the unemployment rate has fallen about 1/4 percentage point since the start of the year, and, at 4.4 percent in June, is 5-1/2 percentage points below its peak in 2010 and modestly below the median of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ assessments of its longer-run normal level. The labor force participation rate has changed little, on net, this year--another indication of improving conditions in the jobs market, given the demographically driven downward trend in this series. A broader measure of labor market slack that includes workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time who would prefer full-time work has also fallen this year and is now nearly as low as it was just before the recession. It is also encouraging that jobless rates have continued to decline for most major demographic groups, including for African Americans and Hispanics. However, as before the recession, unemployment rates for these minority groups remain higher than for the nation overall.

Meanwhile, the economy appears to have grown at a moderate pace, on average, so far this year. Although inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is currently estimated to have increased at an annual rate of only 1-1/2 percent in the first quarter, more-recent indicators suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter. In particular, growth in household spending, which was weak earlier in the year, has picked up in recent months and continues to be supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer sentiment. In addition, business fixed investment has turned up this year after having been soft last year. And a strengthening in economic growth abroad has provided important support for U.S. manufacturing production and exports. The housing market has continued to recover gradually, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labor market and mortgage rates that, although up somewhat from a year ago, remain at relatively low levels.

With regard to inflation, overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May, up from about 1 percent a year ago but a little lower than earlier this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has also edged down in recent months and was 1.4 percent in May, a couple of tenths below the year-earlier reading. It appears that the recent lower readings on inflation are partly the result of a few unusual reductions in certain categories of prices; these reductions will hold 12-month inflation down until they drop out of the calculation. Nevertheless, with inflation continuing to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, the FOMC indicated in its June statement that it intends to carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our symmetric inflation goal.

Looking ahead, my colleagues on the FOMC and I expect that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over the next couple of years, with the job market strengthening somewhat further and inflation rising to 2 percent. This judgment reflects our view that monetary policy remains accommodative. Ongoing job gains should continue to support the growth of incomes and, therefore, consumer spending; global economic growth should support further gains in U.S. exports; and favorable financial conditions, coupled with the prospect of continued gains in domestic and foreign spending and the ongoing recovery in drilling activity, should continue to support business investment. These developments should increase resource utilization somewhat further, thereby fostering a stronger pace of wage and price increases.

Of course, considerable uncertainty always attends the economic outlook. There is, for example, uncertainty about when--and how much--inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization. Possible changes in fiscal and other government policies here in the United States represent another source of uncertainty. In addition, although the prospects for the global economy appear to have improved somewhat this year, a number of our trading partners continue to confront economic challenges. At present, I see roughly equal odds that the U.S. economy’s performance will be somewhat stronger or somewhat less strong than we currently project.

Monetary Policy

I will now turn to monetary policy. The FOMC seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability, as required by law. Over the first half of 2017, the Committee continued to gradually reduce the amount of monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at both its March and June meetings, bringing the target to a range of 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In doing so, the Committee recognized the considerable progress the economy had made--and is expected to continue to make--toward our mandated objectives.

The Committee continues to expect that the evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices. That expectation is based on our view that the federal funds rate remains somewhat below its neutral level--that is, the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel. Because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance. But because we also anticipate that the factors that are currently holding down the neutral rate will diminish somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion and return inflation to our 2 percent goal. Even so, the Committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.

As I noted earlier, the economic outlook is always subject to considerable uncertainty, and monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to their economic outlooks and to their judgments of the associated risks as informed by incoming data. In this regard, as we noted in the FOMC statement last month, inflation continues to run below our 2 percent objective and has declined recently; the Committee will be monitoring inflation developments closely in the months ahead.

In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives. However, such prescriptions cannot be applied in a mechanical way; their use requires careful judgments about the choice and measurement of the inputs into these rules, as well as the implications of the many considerations these rules do not take into account. I would like to note the discussion of simple monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve’s policy process that appears in our current Monetary Policy Report.

Balance Sheet Normalization

Let me now turn to our balance sheet. Last month the FOMC augmented its Policy Normalization Principles and Plans by providing additional details on the process that we will follow in normalizing the size of our balance sheet. The Committee intends to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing its reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from the securities held in the System Open Market Account. Specifically, such payments will be reinvested only to the extent that they exceed gradually rising caps. Initially, these caps will be set at relatively low levels to limit the volume of securities that private investors will have to absorb. The Committee currently expects that, provided the economy evolves broadly as anticipated, it will likely begin to implement the program this year.

Once we start to reduce our reinvestments, our securities holdings will gradually decline, as will the supply of reserve balances in the banking system. The longer-run normal level of reserve balances will depend on a number of as-yet-unknown factors, including the banking system’s future demand for reserves and the Committee’s future decisions about how to implement monetary policy most efficiently and effectively. 
The Committee currently anticipates reducing the quantity of reserve balances to a level that is appreciably below recent levels but larger than before the financial crisis.

Finally, the Committee affirmed in June that changing the target range for the federal funds rate is our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. In other words, we do not intend to use the balance sheet as an active tool for monetary policy in normal times. However, the Committee would be prepared to resume reinvestments if a material deterioration in the economic outlook were to warrant a sizable reduction in the federal funds rate. More generally, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.

Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.