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1、一种行为新凯恩斯主义模型
摘要：本文通过对新凯恩斯模型的实证分析，分析了有限理性对货币政策和财政政策的影响。本文使用一个新的微观的“认知折扣”参数，来模拟代理人对遥远非典型事件的部分评估。与理性模型相比，（i）不存在前向引导难题；（ii）泰勒原理发生变化：采用被动货币政策，但有足够的短视均衡，经济稳定；（iii）零下限成本更低；（iv）价格水平目标并非最优；（v）财政刺激有效；（vi）从长期看，这一模式是“新费雪主义”，短期是凯恩斯主义。
Abstract：This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents' partial myopia toward distant atypical events using a new microfounded "cognitive discounting" parameter. Compared to the rational model, (i) there is no forward guidance puzzle; (ii) the Taylor principle changes: with pasvisive monetary policy but enough myopia equilibria are determinate and economies stable; (iii) the zero lower bound is much less costly; (iv) price-level targeting is not optimal; (v) fiscal stimulus is effective; (vi) the model is "neo-Fisherian" in the long run, Keynesian in the short run.
参考文献：Gabaix, Xavier. 2020. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2271-2327.
2、技能分类能提升人力资本积累吗？
摘要：本文构建了一个在职搜索的结构模型，在该模型中，工人在几个维度上的技能有所不同，并在相同维度上将个人能力与不同技能要求的工作相匹配。这些技能，当被使用时会累积，不使用时会消耗。作者估计了将来自O * NET的数据与NLSY79相结合的模型。本文使用该模型阐明了不同技能维度上不匹配的起源和成本。当将初始条件和职业冲击分开后，本文强调依赖一维技能模型的缺陷。
Abstract：We construct a structural model of on-the-job search in which workers differ in skills along several dimensions and sort themselves into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those same dimensions. Skills are accumulated when used, and depreciate when not used. We estimate the model combining data from O*NET with the NLSY79. We use the model to shed light on the origins and costs of mismatch along heterogeneous skill dimensions. We highlight the deficiencies of relying on a unidimensional model of skill when decomposing the sources of variation in the value of lifetime output between initial conditions and career shocks.
参考文献：Lise, Jeremy, and Fabien Postel-Vinay. 2020. "Multidimensional Skills, Sorting, and Human Capital Accumulation." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2328-76.
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3、城市形状是否影响了经济活动空间分布？
摘要：城市的空间布局是城市形态的一个重要特征，城市规划者强调了这一点，但却被经济学家忽略了。本文调查了印度城市形态的因果经济影响。作者使用卫星图像和历史地图来衡量城市随时间变化的几何特性，根据扩张中的城市所遇到的地理障碍，开发了一种城市形态测量工具。研究发现，紧凑的城市形态与更快的人口增长相关联，家庭对更紧凑的布局表现出积极的支付意愿，但是土地使用法规会导致城市形态恶化。
Abstract：The spatial layout of cities is an important feature of urban form, highlighted by urban planners but overlooked by economists. This paper investigates the causal economic implications of city shape in India. I measure cities' geometric properties over time using satellite imagery and historical maps. I develop an instrument for urban shape based on geographic obstacles encountered by expanding cities. Compact city shape is associated with faster population growth and households display positive willingness to pay for more compact layouts. Transit accessibility is an important channel. Land use regulations can contribute to deteriorating city shape.
参考文献：Harari, Mariaflavia. 2020. "Cities in Bad Shape: Urban Geometry in India." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2377-2421.
4、补贴政策能提高保险投保率吗？
摘要：利用一个为期两年的定价实验数据，本文研究了补贴政策对气象保险投保率的影响。结果表明，补贴通过影响支付经验来增加未来的保险额。探索支出效应的机制，研究发现，对于那些随机受益于金融教育的家庭来说，接受一笔提供了一次性的学习体验的支出，可以永久性提高接受率。相比之下，缺乏保险知识的家庭根据最近的灾害和赔付经验，也可以不断更新投保决策。因此，将补贴政策与金融教育相结合可以有效提高长期保险的投保率。
Abstract：Using data from a two-year pricing experiment, we study the impact of subsidy policies on weather insurance take-up. Results show that subsidies increase future insurance take-up through their influence on payout experiences. Exploring mechanisms of the payout effect, we find that for households that randomly benefited from financial education, receiving a payout provides a one-time learning experience that improves take-up permanently. In contrast, households with poor insurance knowledge continuously update take-up decisions based on recent experiences with disasters and payouts. Combining subsidy policies with financial education can thus be effective in promoting long-run insurance adoption.
参考文献：Cai, Jing, Alain de Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. 2020. "Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2422-53.
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5、低价也能进行社会网络研究吗？
摘要：社会网络数据的收集成本往往高得让人望而却步，这限制了实证网络的研究。本文提出了一种使用聚合关系数据（ARD）进行网络诱导的廉价且可行的策略，回答“您的链接中有多少具有特征k？”。研究方法使用聚合关系数据来恢复网络形成模型的参数，该模型允许从分布在节点或图级别的统计数据中进行采样。作者复制了两个使用网络数据的现场实验的结果，并且仅用聚合关系数据也得出了类似的结论。
Abstract：Social network data are often prohibitively expensive to collect, limiting empirical network research. We propose an inexpensive and feasible strategy for network elicitation using Aggregated Relational Data (ARD): responses to questions of the form "how many of your links have trait k?" Our method uses ARD to recover parameters of a network formation model, which permits sampling from a distribution over node- or graph-level statistics. We replicate the results of two field experiments that used network data and draw similar conclusions with ARD alone.
参考文献：Breza, Emily, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Tyler H. McCormick, and Mengjie Pan. 2020. "Using Aggregated Relational Data to Feasibly Identify Network Structure without Network Data." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2454-84.
6、金融数据技术的长期增长
摘要：“大数据”金融技术引发市场低效的担忧。人们普遍担心的是，这项技术可能会诱使交易者提取他人的信息，而不是生成自己的信息。本文允许代理人选择他们对未来资产价值或其他人需求的了解程度，并探索数据处理的改进如何影响这些信息选择、交易策略和市场结果。作者的主要观点是，无偏见的技术变革可以解释整个市场在数据收集和交易策略上的转变。然而，从长远来看，随着数据处理技术的日益改革，这两种类型的数据都会继续被更新。这两种相互竞争的力量使数据保持平衡：数据解决了投资风险，但未来的数据创造了风险。研究有两个新发现：首先，本文的研究结果提供了一个新的视角，说明了是什么让价格信息量大；其次，通常被视为流动性提供的交易，实际上是否使市场更具弹性。
Abstract："Big data" financial technology raises concerns about market inefficiency. A common concern is that the technology might induce traders to extract others' information, rather than to produce information themselves. We allow agents to choose how much they learn about future asset values or about others' demands, and we explore how improvements in data processing shape these information choices, trading strategies and market outcomes. Our main insight is that unbiased technological change can explain a market-wide shift in data collection and trading strategies. However, in the long run, as data processing technology becomes increasingly advanced, both types of data continue to be processed. Two competing forces keep the data economy in balance: data resolve investment risk, but future data create risk. The efficiency results that follow from these competing forces upend two pieces of common wisdom: our results offer a new take on what makes prices informative and whether trades typically deemed liquidity-providing actually make markets more resilient.
参考文献：Farboodi, Maryam, and Laura Veldkamp. 2020. "Long-Run Growth of Financial Data Technology." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2485-2523.
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7、金融危机、美元化和开放经济体的最后贷款
摘要：外汇债务被认为是新兴市场金融不稳定的根源。作者提出了一个理论，在这个理论中，债务美元化产生于国内储户的保险动机。由于金融危机与贬值有关，储户在用本币储蓄时会要求风险溢价。这股力量使本币债务变得昂贵，并激励借款人发行外币债务。向借款人提供事后支持可以减轻危机对储户收入的影响，降低他们对保险的需求，同时它还可以减少以外币借款的事前动机。
Abstract：Foreign currency debt is considered a source of financial instability in emerging markets. We propose a theory in which liability dollarization arises from an insurance motive of domestic savers. Since financial crises are associated to depreciations, savers ask for a risk premium when saving in local currency. This force makes domestic currency debt expensive, and incentivizes borrowers to issue foreign currency debt. Providing ex post support to borrowers can alleviate the effect of the crisis on savers' income, lowering their demand for insurance, and, surprisingly, it can reduce ex ante incentives to borrow in foreign currency.
参考文献：Bocola, Luigi, and Guido Lorenzoni. 2020. "Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2524-57.
8、审查升级：环境法规动态执行的收益
摘要：美国环境保护署（EPA）采用一种动态的方法来执行空气污染法规，屡犯者将被处以高额罚款，并被划分为高优先级违规者（HPV）。本文通过开发和评估一个工厂和监管机构的动态模型来评估动态执法的价值，在这个模型中，工厂决定何时投资污染减排技术，同时使用固定网格方法来估计随机系数规范。研究发现，对大多数工厂来说，投资、罚款和高优先级违规者鉴定都是昂贵的。取消动态执法，如果是持续的罚款，将增加164%的污染损害赔偿金，或者如果是持续的污染损害赔偿金，将增加519%的罚款。
Abstract：The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uses a dynamic approach to enforcing air pollution regulations, with repeat offenders subject to high fines and designation as high priority violators (HPV). We estimate the value of dynamic enforcement by developing and estimating a dynamic model of a plant and regulator, where plants decide when to invest in pollution abatement technologies. We use a fixed grid approach to estimate random coefficient specifications. Investment, fines, and HPV designation are costly to most plants. Eliminating dynamic enforcement would raise pollution damages by 164 percent with constant fines or raise fines by 519 percent with constant pollution damages.
参考文献：Blundell, Wesley, Gautam Gowrisankaran, and Ashley Langer. 2020. "Escalation of Scrutiny: The Gains from Dynamic Enforcement of Environmental Regulations." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2558-85.
9、Bartik工具变量：理论和应用
摘要：Bartik工具变量是通过地方产业份额和国家产业增长率相互作用而形成的。作者发现，Bartik工具变量的使用是假设了一个混合风险研究设计，其中股票衡量了共同冲击的不同风险，这种识别是基于股票的异质性。接下来，作者展示了Bartik工具变量如何为每个风险设计加权。最后，研究讨论了如何评估研究设计的合理性。通过两个应用来说明本文的结果：首先，是估计劳动力供给弹性；其次，是估计移民与本地人之间的替代弹性。
Abstract：The Bartik instrument is formed by interacting local industry shares and national industry growth rates. We show that the typical use of a Bartik instrument assumes a pooled exposure research design, where the shares measure differential exposure to common shocks, and identification is based on exogeneity of the shares. Next, we show how the Bartik instrument weights each of the exposure designs. Finally, we discuss how to assess the plausibility of the research design. We illustrate our results through two applications: estimating the elasticity of labor supply, and estimating the elasticity of substitution between immigrants and natives.
参考文献：Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul, Isaac Sorkin, and Henry Swift. 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2586-2624.
10、双边市场的稳定性和贝叶斯一致性
摘要：作者提出了一个信息不对称的双边市场的稳定性的标准。一个中心思想是以反事实的成对偏差为条件来偏离路径，在没有这种偏差的情况下，制定出对路径的信念。如果匹配相对于路径信念系统是理性的，而对于非路径信念系统是不被阻塞的话，那么匹配信念这样的配置就是稳定的。这个公式提供了一种来评估与其支持的信念相匹配的结果的语言，并为进一步的基于信念的改进打开了大门。文中所分析的主要改进要求在路径和非路径上的信念与先验信念的贝叶斯保持一致性。作者定义了贝叶斯效率、理性预期竞争均衡和核心的概念。
Abstract：We propose a criterion of stability for two-sided markets with asymmetric information. A central idea is to formulate off-path beliefs conditional on counterfactual pairwise deviations and on-path beliefs in the absence of such deviations. A matching-belief configuration is stable if the matching is individually rational with respect to the system of on-path beliefs and is not blocked with respect to the system of off-path beliefs. The formulation provides a language for assessing matching outcomes with respect to their supporting beliefs and opens the door to further belief-based refinements. The main refinement analyzed in the paper requires the Bayesian consistency of on-path and off-path beliefs with prior beliefs. We define concepts of Bayesian efficiency, the rational expectations competitive equilibrium, and the core. Their contrast with pairwise stability manifests the role of information asymmetry in matching formation.
参考文献：Liu, Qingmin. 2020. "Stability and Bayesian Consistency in Two-Sided Markets." American Economic Review, 110 (8): 2625-66.
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