全文翻译自Slate杂志9月29日文章
原题：China Thinks the North Korea Nuclear Crisis Is All America’s Fault
作者：
Joshua Keating
译者：冬天毛
《Slate》是美国一部自由主义倾向的网络杂志，创始于1996年，专长报道时事、政治和文化等，全天随时更新。总编辑茱莉亚·特纳称，该杂志“根本上来说做的不是实时新闻”，而是旨在通过风趣的写作方式，帮助读者“分析、理解和诠释世界。”
（维基百科）
正文：
连通中国北方辽宁省边境城市丹东和朝鲜新义州市的“友谊桥”，照片摄于2017年5月24日。
This week, the Chinese government ordered North Korean companies operating in China to shut down, the latest sign of rising tensions between the two longtime allies. Those tensions could soon get even worse if, as many observers anticipate, North Korea carries out some provocative action—another nuclear test or missile launch perhaps—during the 19th congress of the ruling Communist Party in Beijing next month.
本周，中国政府勒令在华的朝鲜企业关闭，两个长期盟国间的局势愈发紧张。许多时事观察员预测，如果朝鲜在下个月于北京召开的共产党第十九次全国代表大会期间采取某种挑衅行为，例如再一次进行核试验或是导弹试射，那么两国间局势还会进一步急剧恶化。
There’s a widely held view in the United States that Chinese pressure has been the key missing factor preventing the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis. “China could easily solve this problem!” as President Trump has put it. The case is undoubtedly overstated, but it’s not totally wrong. China does have a decades-old defense treaty with its Cold War ally and serves as its economic lifeline, accounting for 90 percent of the isolated country’s trade. While China is certainly worried about North Korea’s nuclear program, it’s even more worried about what could happen if the North Korean regime collapsed, bringing a massive humanitarian crisis and possibly U.S. troops right up to its border. At this point, it’s probably too late for even China to persuade Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear program, but it’s undoubtedly true that for years, China has been reluctant to put too much pressure on Pyongyang.
在许多美国人眼中，之所以朝鲜核危机未能解决，关键是因为缺了中国对朝鲜的施压。就像特朗普总统说的那样：“中国可以轻易解决这个问题！”这种观点无疑有夸大成分，但并非全无道理。中国和朝鲜这个冷战盟国有数十年历史的互卫条约，同时也担当着它的经济生命线，占有这个孤立国家90%的贸易量。虽然中国对朝鲜的核项目无疑是感到忧虑的，但它更担心的是朝鲜政权垮台，造成大规模人道危机，美军也可能兵临国境的后果。事到如今，就连中国自己想要说服金正恩放弃他的核项目，都恐怕已经为时太晚，但多年来中国始终不愿对平壤施加过大压力，这也是不争的事实。
In Beijing, however, the notion that the North Korea crisis is China’s fault seems bizarre. There, the prevailing narrative is that it’s American recklessness, not Chinese reluctance, that turned North Korea into a nuclear threat.
然而在北京的人们眼中，把朝鲜危机归罪于中国是一种异想天开的观点。在那边的主流论调中，使朝鲜化身核威胁的不是中国的踌躇不前，而是美国的鲁莽冒进。
At a meeting with a group of American journalists, including myself, in Beijing last week, Counselor Yu Dunhai of the Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed the idea that China could resolve the crisis. “The key is not in our hands,” he said. “China certainly can play a big role, because we are the closest neighbor and have a lot of influence, but only China can’t solve the problem. The key lies with the U.S. If the two sides [the United States and North Korea] do not talk, China can do nothing.”
上周在北京，中国外交部参赞于敦海会见了包括我本人在内的一批美国记者，驳斥了中国能够解决（朝核）危机的观点。他说：“钥匙不在我们手中。中国当然可以扮演很大角色，我们毕竟是（朝鲜）最密切的盟友，对他们有很大影响力，但只靠中国是解决不了问题的。钥匙在美国手中。如果（美朝）双方不交谈，中国就无能为力。”
Yu suggested that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons because it “feels very insecure. They think a nuclear bomb is the solution.” That insecurity, he argues, results from the heavy U.S. troop presence in South Korea and U.S.-led military exercises in the region.
于提出，朝鲜之所以发展核武器，是因为它“很没有安全感。他们觉得核弹可以解决这个问题。”他认为，这种不安全感来自于驻韩的大量美军，以及美国在那里主导的军事演习。
In Yu’s view, “we almost achieved the denuclearization of the peninsula during President Clinton’s administration,” but progress was derailed when George W. Bush labeled North Korea a member of the “axis of evil” and invaded fellow axis member Iraq, convincing Pyongyang of the necessity of developing a nuclear deterrent. He also put some blame on the Obama administration for its lack of engagement with the problem. “During Obama’s administration, they used the term ‘strategic patience,’ and North Korea’s nuclear program developed very fast during that time,” he said.
于认为，“克林顿总统执政期间，我们几乎已经达成了半岛的去核化，”然而乔治·W·布什上任后将朝鲜列为“邪恶轴心”成员国之一，并入侵了同为邪恶轴心成员国的伊拉克，使平壤确信了发展核威慑的必要性，导致去核进程搁浅。此外，他也将问题部分归罪于奥巴马政府的不作为。他表示：“奥巴马执政期间，他们弄出了‘战略忍耐’这个说法，结果那段时间朝鲜的核项目发展非常快速。”
“China feels very frustrated,” says Tong Zhao, a nuclear policy analyst at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. Tong suggests that Chinese leaders believe “the crisis is getting worse because the U.S. won’t listen to us. U.S. provocations only make North Korea more paranoid.”
北京卡内基-清华全球政策中心的核问题政策分析家赵通表示：“中国对此很恼火。”通（
冬天毛注：此处应为“赵”
）指出，中国的领袖们认为，“（朝核）危机每况愈下，是因为美国不愿意听我们的。美国的挑衅只会使朝鲜更加疑神疑鬼。”
There’s some truth to this storyline, but also some holes in it. Kim Jong-il sought nuclear weapons years before Bush invaded Iraq. And the North Koreans’ conventional arsenal and their relationship with China have been an invasion deterrent since the 1960s: They don’t need nukes for self defense.
这种说法有一定真实性，但也有一些漏洞。早在布什入侵伊拉克前很多年，金正日就在谋求核武器了，而且自打六十年代以来，朝鲜的传统武器库以及他们与中国的关系就一直在起威慑作用，使（美国）不敢入侵：他们不需要核武器来自保。
China’s statements, including its calls for calm as the war of words between Trump and Kim has escalated this month, often have the tone of an exasperated adult trying to separate two brawling grade-schoolers. In fairness to China, the two current leaders of the United States and North Korea have made that tone pretty easy to maintain.
中国的声明，包括这个月特朗普和金之间的口水战升级时从旁息事宁人的呼吁，总是带有一种恼火的成年人试图拉开两个掐成一团的小学生时的口气。平心而论，面对美朝两国的这两位现任领袖，用那种腔调说话并不显得别扭。
If a full Chinese embargo on North Korea is seen as the golden bullet in Washington, the Chinese equivalent is a scenario known as “double suspension”: North Korea agrees to suspend its nuclear activities, while the U.S. agrees to suspend military exercises with the South Koreans. This is very unlikely to happen, as Yu acknowledges. “The U.S. says that Military exercises is our legitimate right,” he says. “So there is no way forward.”
如果说华盛顿眼中的金子弹（
冬天毛注：此处或为笔误，应为silver bullet / 银子弹，即“终极有效手段”
）是让中国对朝鲜全面封港停商的话，那么中国人眼中的金子弹便是一种名为“双停”的场景：朝鲜同意暂停核活动，美国则同意暂停与韩国人进行军事演习。于（敦海）也承认，这种情况很难发生。他说：“美国说‘军事演习是我们的正当权利’，所以这事是成不了的。”
The argument that American military activities in East Asia are what has caused the Korean crisis is awfully convenient for China, given that China would love for the U.S. to stop doing that. “To some extent, China shares North Korea’s suspicion of U.S.,” says Zhao. “Both believe the U.S. is a troublemaker and a hegemonic power.”
对于中国来说，这种认为美国在东亚的军事活动导致朝鲜危机的论点实在太方便了，因为中国也想让美国停止这些军事活动。赵说：“中国在某种程度上和朝鲜一样不信任美国，两国都认为美国是一个惹是生非的霸权国家。”
What we’re left with is a dilemma in which both China and the United States believe the North Korea situation is principally the other country’s fault. In that sense, the crisis can also be viewed as just part of a larger disagreement between the world’s two most powerful countries, one with potentially very dangerous consequences for both countries and everyone else.
于是摆在我们面前的就是中美两国在朝鲜问题上互相推锅的两难局面。在此种意义上，也可以说（朝鲜）危机仅仅是这两个世界最强国之间龃龉的一部分，但它可能给两国以及其他所有人带来的危险后果却是实实在在的。
The U.S. sees China as narrowly pursuing its own self interest at the expense of the international order, willing to support or at least tolerate unstable and despotic regimes and put other nations at risk if it aids the Chinese rise to economic and military power. China, meanwhile, sees all of America’s talk of a rules-based international order, maintaining global security, and promoting human rights (or at least the talk of those values before Trump’s reign) as a flimsy cover for maintaining its own global preeminence and keeping other powers, namely China, down.
在美国眼中，中国一心追求自己的利益，不惜牺牲国际秩序，对于那些反复无常的暴君政权，只要它能帮助中国在经济和军事上崛起，中国就愿意支持，或者说至少也是听之任之，而不惜让其他国家承担风险。而与此同时，在中国眼中，美国强调基于规则的国际秩序、维护全球安全以及促进人权（或者说至少在特朗普上任前还在提倡这些价值观），都只是一层肤浅的伪装，其真实目的是为了维持自己的全球领先地位，并压制其他国家（也就是中国）的崛起。
The mutual suspicion behind these views is making it harder for the two countries—which, in truth, are both partly to blame for the North Korea crisis—to work together to solve the problem. It’s a disagreement that could be very dangerous for both countries going forward—and for everyone else.
在这些观点背后，使中美两国很难携手解决问题的，是彼此间的互不信任；而在事实上，两国都对朝鲜危机负有部分责任。这种分歧可能会给两国的未来造成极大的危险，而其他人也都将无法置身事外。
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