主讲人：
Yang Yu (Associate Professor of Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
主持人：
（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
时间：
2024年11月28日（周四）
14:00-15:30
地点：
北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园131教室
主讲人简介：
Yang Yu is an Associate Professor of Economics at Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He holds a PhD in Economics from Duke University and has previously taught at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His research areas include macroeconomics and finance. His work has been published in international journals such as
the
Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Management Science,
and
Journal of Financial
and
Quantitative Analysis
.
摘要：
Multiple equilibria models are prevalent in economics. Despite sustained interest in these models, researchers grapple with the challenge of selecting a specific equilibrium. In this study, I propose an empirical method that identifies the most empirically plausible equilibrium selection mechanisms from three popular options in the macroeconomic literature: global games, history-dependence, and sunspot shocks. I leverage time series data and analyze the distribution of economic outcomes conditional on economic fundamentals across current and past periods. When applied to multiple equilibria models of the aggregate labor market, my method reveals strong evidence favoring global games and history-dependence as the preferred equilibrium selection device in accounting for the observed labor market dynamics, depending on how the data are filtered.
