【经济学人】川普要对经济做些什么 | 2016.11.12 | 总第731期

MARKET reaction to Donald Trump’s win has been something between sanguine and elated. But if you set out to design policies to do long-term harm to the economy, you might end up with something resembling Mr Trump’s agenda. The next president threatens to erect trade barriers, which would disrupt supply chains and dampen productivity growth. He wants to deport many of America’s 11m illegal immigrants, which could reduce the size of the labour force by up to 5%. And his tax plan is ruinously expensive, costing almost $7trn over a decade, or around half of America’s outstanding national debt.

市场对川普赢得总统一事的反应是既兴奋又有信心。但如果你要着手制定对经济造成长期损害危害的政策，那最终可能会与特朗普的议程相差无几。新总统扬言说要建立贸易壁垒，这将破坏供应链，抑制生产力的增长。川普想把美国的1100万非法移民驱逐出境，这样可能减少高达5%的劳动力规模。他的税收计划极其昂贵，十多年将耗资近7万亿，或者说约为美国的未偿国债债务的一半。

• Sanguine ['sæŋgwɪn]：充满信心的；乐观的

• Resemble [rɪ'zemb(ə)l]：v.类似；相似；相像

• Ruinously ['rʊɪnəsli]：毁灭地；毁灭似地；败坏地

• outstanding debt：未偿债务；未还债款

How much damage is President Trump actually likely to do? That depends first on how much of his policy he can get enacted. Until recently, his tax cuts would have been vulnerable to a Democratic filibuster in the Senate. But thanks to a rule change in the latest budget deal, the Republicans can now pass even unfunded tax cuts with only a simple majority, explains Richard Kogan of the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think-tank. (To do so, they must include sunset clauses, as George W. Bush did when he cut taxes in 2001.)

川普总统究竟会造成多大的损失呢？这首先取决于国家会颁布多少他制定的政策。直到最近，其减税政策已受到参议院民主党的阻挠。预算与优先政策中心（一个智囊团）的Richard Kogan解释道，但由于在最新的预算协议中规则有所改变，现在共和党人甚至可以以绝对优势通过注资减税。（这样做的话，他们必须包括“日落条款”，正如小布什在2001年减税时所做的那样。）

“日落条款”

Congressional Republicans might moderate Mr Trump’s plan. The tax cuts Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives, wants are expensive, but much less so than Mr Trump’s (see chart). The corporate tax may end up at Mr Ryan’s proposed 20% rather than Mr Trump’s desired 15%. Mr Trump’s costly promise to offer the same rate to sole traders may not survive. Both men agree that there should be three tax rates for individuals (12%, 25% and 33%), but there will be debate over the generosity of deductions.

国会共和党人可能会延缓特朗普的计划。众议院议长保罗·莱恩想要的减税政策是昂贵的，但比川普要的减税少得多。（见图表）。企业所得税的税率最终可能会是莱恩提出的20%，而不是川普所需的15%。所以川普给个体营业者以相同利率的昂贵承诺可能无法实现。双方都认为应该有三种个人税（分别为12%，25%和33%），但在减免的慷慨程度方面会有争论。

• Moderate ['mɒd(ə)rət]：v.缓和；使适中；审核评分

• sole traders：个体营业者；独资商人；独资营商者

Debt would rise significantly even under Mr Ryan’s plan. More borrowing will give the economy a boost in the short term. Mr Ryan’s tax cuts would be much bigger than Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus in 2009. Add in the infrastructure spending Mr Trump also wants, and the economy could get much hotter, which helps to explain the rally in financial markets on November 9th. The question is to what extent this will jeopardise America’s long-term fiscal health.

即使在莱恩的计划下，债务也会大幅上升。更多的借款会在短期内会促进经济增长，但莱恩的减税程度将比2009年奥巴马财政刺激的减税程度大得多。川普同时也希望增加基础设施的支出，并且使经济更火热，这有助于解释11月9日川普当选后金融市场的反弹。但问题是，这一政策对美国的长期财政健康到底危害几何。

• Rally ['rælɪ] : v.召集；集合；复原；恢复健康

• Jeopardise ['dʒepədaiz] : v.冒…的危险；危及；危害；损害

While Congress might rewrite the Trump tax plan, it has much less power to restrain Mr Trump’s protectionism. Existing laws allow the president to impose tariffs in very broadly defined circumstances, as Mr Trump gleefully noted during the campaign. He could use the president’s prerogative over foreign affairs to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement with just six months’ notice, according to the Peterson Institute, a think-tank.

虽然国会可能重新修订川普的税收计划，但国会对限制川普的保护主义显得无能为力。就像川普在竞选时就高兴地提到的，现有的法律允许总统在特定情况下征收关税。根据智囊团彼得森研究所的判断，川普可能会使用外交事务的总统特权，让美国在六个月内退出北美自由贸易协定。

• Prerogative [prɪ'rɒgətɪv] : 特权；优先权

• Withdraw  [wɪð'drɔː] : v.撤回；提；撤离；停止提供

• North American Free Trade Agreement : 北美自由贸易协定

希拉里批“川普的税收计划”

Mr Trump has said that he is merely threatening to tear up trade agreements and impose tariffs, in order to achieve better trade deals. The goal of such new deals, according to his advisers, will be to eliminate the trade deficit. That is all but unachievable. The trade deficit is the result of low national saving, which will fall still further if the government borrows more. And no one knows how other countries will react to Mr Trump’s threats.

川普说，他威胁要撕毁贸易协议以及征收关税，只是为了实现更好的贸易协议。根据他顾问们的意见，这种新协议的目标将是消除贸易赤字。听上去头头是道但却无法实现。贸易赤字是国民储蓄金太少的结果，如果政府借更多钱的话，国民储蓄金会进一步减少。没有人知道其他国家会怎么应对川普的威胁。

• tear up : 撕毁；撕掉

• national saving : 国民储蓄

Monetary policy is another cause for worry. Mr Trump has railed against low interest rates, saying they had stoked an economic bubble (a sentiment repeated by one of his advisers, to the Financial Times on November 9th). He also claimed that Janet Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was acting in an “obviously political” manner and “should be ashamed of herself”. This caused speculation that Ms Yellen might resign after a Trump victory. That seems unlikely; Fed chairmen have withstood presidential criticism before. But Ms Yellen will surely depart when her term expires in February 2018.

货币政策是引起忧虑的另一个原因。川普反对低利率，称这已经引发经济泡沫（这是他的其中一个顾问反复强调的观点，见于11月9日的金融时报）。他还声称，美联储主席Janet Yellen的所作所为是“明显的政治”行为，“她应该感到惭愧”。这也引发了一些猜测，如果川普赢了，Janet Yellen可能会辞职。不过这似乎不太可能，因为美联储主席之前也经受住了总统的批评。但Yellen女士在她2018年2月的任期满后是肯定会离开的。

• railed against : 抱怨；责骂；嘲骂

• Sentiment ['sentɪm(ə)nt] : 意见，观点;

• Withstand [wɪð'stænd] : v.抵挡；顶住；反抗；反对

Who might Mr Trump nominate to replace her? In an interview before the election Stephen Moore, an economic adviser to Mr Trump, floated several names, including Larry Kudlow, a television pundit, Art Laffer, a private-sector economist, and Martin Feldstein, an academic, all of whom served in the Reagan administration. Most conservative economists like Mr Feldstein have been calling for tighter monetary policy for years; Mr Kudlow is an exception. If Mr Trump’s nominee is to reflect Republicans’ hawkishness, the expectation of higher interest rates will hang over the economy, though that may have bigger implications for economies outside America (see page 67).(读者翻译)

那么川普可能会提名谁来接替她呢？在选举前的一次采访中，川普的一名经济顾问Stephen Moore曾提到了几个名字，包括电视评论员Larry Kudlow，一个私营部门的经济学家Art Laffer，一个学术家Martin Feldstein，他们都曾在里根政府就职。大多数保守派经济学家，例如Feldstein，多年来一直在呼吁更紧缩的货币政策；但Kudlow是个例外。期待您的翻译，您可以将翻译留言到文章底部，第二天会有详细解析哦。

• Floated ['fləutid] : 透露，提到

• Nominee [nɒmɪ'niː]：n.被提名人；候选人

With a big fiscal stimulus, though, higher rates might be needed to keep inflation down. That would send the dollar higher, hurting American manufacturers and increasing the lure of protectionism. That is where the biggest threat to growth lies.

然而，随着巨大的财政刺激的出现，美国可能需要更高的利率来抑制通货膨胀。但是这会使美元走高，伤害美国制造商的利益，同时增加保护主义的诱惑力。这才是发展中最大的威胁所在。

• Lure [l(j)ʊə]：n.诱惑；诱饵；吸引力

  
  

翻译 ▍单人言，卿和  

审核 ▍Arias

编辑 ▍璃儿