主線一：把握紅利價值。
包裝行業規模大、集中度低，軟塑/紙包爲主流包材類型，龍頭廠商在產品研發/產能佈局/資金實力/供應鏈能力等方面形成領先優勢，獲取頭部客戶供應商資質認證後可形成持續性服務能力，相對易守難攻，市場份額穩健提升。此外，智能化、數字化能力帶來生產效率提升爲龍頭超額收益核心來源；伴隨前期擴產漸入收穫期，行業發展日趨成熟，龍頭盈利能力及ROE提升、分紅能力增強，具備較強防禦屬性。推薦3C賽道景氣、多元品類持續拓展、分紅提升的紙包龍頭裕同科技（24年股息率4.9%），以及內銷經營具韌性、海外市場貢獻增量的高股息軟塑龍頭永新股份（24年股息率7.0%）等。
Theme I: Dividend stocks
Profile:
the Chinese packaging industry is a large-scale one with low concentration, where soft plastics and paper are the main materials. Leading manufacturers have the following competitive advantages:
•Product R&D, capacity buildout, financial firepower and supply chain capabilities.
•Sustainable service capacities on qualification and certification by major customers and suppliers provide a defensive advantage that drives market share expansion.
•Intelligentization and digitalization capabilities improve production efficiency and provide a profit premium.
•As their production buildout enters the pay-off phase as the industry nears maturity, profitability and ROE start to kick in and with it the ability to pay out dividends, making major players highly defensive.
Stocks:
we would monitor these companies:
•Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology: leading paper packaging producer thriving in the 3C sector:
-Widening product category coverage
-Rising dividend trend
-2024 dividend yield was 4.9%.
•Huangshan Novel: a high-dividend flexible plastic packaging leader:
-Resilient Chinese market sales
-Foreign markets contribute incremental sales
-2024 dividend yield was 7.0%.
主線二：把握格局優化。
金屬包裝盈利能力受供需結構及原材料價格走勢影響，其中三片罐供需均衡，廠商&客戶深度綁定，片價傳導能力強，利潤表現可觀（毛利率區間15-25%）；二片罐國內需求平穩，龍頭擴產激進導致供過於求，行業處盈利低位，當前龍頭之間發起要約收購，整合落地有望加速競爭格局改善，此外龍頭資本開支節奏放緩，預計盈利中樞有望底部向上。建議積極關注原材料紅利逐步顯現、二片罐盈利彈性更高的寶鋼包裝，以及兼具兩片罐盈利修復彈性&三片罐穩健利潤貢獻的昇興股份、奧瑞金、嘉美包裝。
Theme II: Industry structure optimization
Profile:
metal packaging sector profitability is driven by the supply-demand balance and raw material price trends:
Three-piece cans:
•Balanced supply and demand
•Strong ties between manufacturers and customers
•High price transmission
•Considerable profits with gross margins ranging 15-25%.
Two-piece cans:
•Stable Chinese market demand
•Over-expansion of production capacities by leading players led to the current oversupply
•Low profitability levels: leading companies have initiated M&A and we expect industry integration will enhance competitiveness; capex spending has also slowed, which could help profitability bottom out and turn around.
Stocks:
we would monitor these companies:
•Shanghai Baosteel Packaging: we would keep an eye on the emerging profit potential from raw material price trends, as well as higher profitability elasticity in its two-piece-can business.
•Sunrise Group and ORG Technology: these companies enjoy both profitability recovery elasticity in the two-piece-can business and stable profit contributions from their three-piece-can business.
Other not-rated market players: Jiamei Food Packaging (002969 CH).
主線三：把握景氣賽道。
我國藥玻行業穩定擴容（12-21年CAGR爲3.7%），產品年化需求約800億支，其中中硼硅藥玻滲透率不到10%。中硼硅產品性能優異、進入壁壘較高，目前國內僅4家企業實現轉“A”認證，山東藥玻佔據大部分市場份額，行業格局優異，且盈利能力較強。伴隨一致性評價及關聯審評政策驅動，根據製藥網預測，中硼硅藥玻滲透率有望達到30-40%，替代空間相對廣闊。推薦中硼硅模製瓶通過轉“A”認證、客戶儲備豐富、新增產能加速釋放的力諾特玻。
Theme III: Boom segments
Profile:
the pharmaceutical glass industry in China has expanded steadily and CAGR was 3.7% over 2012-21. Annual product demand comes to about 80bn pieces, of which borosilicate has penetrated less than 10%. Neutral borosilicate products offer high-performance traits and provide high barriers to entry. Only four Chinese companies have obtained A certification and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (600529 CH, BUY) has the lion's share of the market, which has a favorable industry structure and strong profitability. We expect the penetration of borosilicate into the pharmaceutical glass market will reach 30-40% in the future and we see broad potential for Chinese substitution.
Stocks:
we recommend Shandong Linuo Technical Glass: it obtained A certification for its borosilicate molded bottles; enjoys plenty of customer resources; and is accelerating new production capacity rollouts.
