经济学人 | 英镑贬值并没有带动出口热|2017.10.15|总第1020期

SINCE the Brexit vote of June 2016, the pound has lost 15% of its value against other currencies. Traders have sold sterling because they fear for the economy’s prospects. Yet some see an upside to the slump. With products more competitive abroad, the argument goes, the economy will “rebalance” away from consumer spending towards export-led growth. Last month Liam Fox, the international-trade secretary, spoke of the “increasing demand for home-grown summer essentials”, boasting about British exports of swimwear and ice-cream. Unfortunately, however, sterling’s depreciation is likely to go down as one of the least successful in history.

自从英国2016年6月宣布脱欧以来，英镑相较于其它货币而言贬值了15%。交易商因担心经济的前景已销售了英镑。但有人却从此次下跌中看到了有利一面。随着国外商品竞争力越来越强，有人认为，经济将会再次平衡，从消费性支出转为出口导向性发展。上个月国际贸易部长利亚姆·福克斯提到“对英产夏日必备品需求的增加”，借此夸口英国出口的泳衣和冰淇淋。但不幸的是，英镑可能是历史上最不成功的贬值之一。

• upside: n.（糟糕局面的）好的一面

• slump: n. 暴跌, 大幅度下降

For most of the past three centuries, Britain has run a trade surplus. Its biggest, worth 6% of GDP, was in 1881, at the height of the British empire. However, in recent years Britain has run large trade deficits.

在过去三百年间的大部分时期，英国一直在国际贸易中保持着顺差。最大的贸易顺差出现在1881年，相当于国民生产总值的6%，更是达到了大英帝国的巅峰时期。然而，在最近几年，英国却遭受着巨大的贸易赤字。

• surplus: n. (贸易)顺差

• deficits: n.赤字，亏损

Past depreciations have helped reorient the economy back towards export-led growth. In 1967, when Harold Wilson devalued the pound against the dollar, assuring Britons that the “pound in your pocket” had lost none of its value, a jump in exports followed (see chart). The conditions looked good for a repeat this time around. Despite protectionist rhetoric from Donald Trump, world trade has grown decently in the past year.

过去的贬值帮助英国将经济方向重新调整为出口导向型发展。在1967年，(当时英国的首相)哈罗德·威尔森使得英镑兑换美元贬值，可他却向英国人保证“你们口袋里的英镑”并未贬值，但随之而来的是出口的激增（如图表）。这次的情况看起来还不错。尽管唐纳德·特朗普有发表保护主义言论，去年世界贸易的增长速度仍略微上升。

Yet exporters have responded meekly to the depreciation. The real-terms value of exports has risen only slightly. In April to June the trade deficit was just a squeak below its five-year average.

然而出口商对贬值的反应并不强烈。出口的实际值只是轻微的上升。从四月到七月贸易赤字只是稍稍低于五年来的平均水平。

• meekly:adv.温顺地

The impact of sterling’s depreciation has been underwhelming for a few reasons. For one thing, firms are locked into global supply chains and rely heavily on foreign inputs. Half the components in a “British-made” car come from abroad. If exports rise, so do imports.

英镑贬值的影响并未令人印象深刻的原因有以下，一方面，已进入全球供应链的那些公司严重依赖国际输入。近一半的冠以“英国制造”的汽车的零部件来自国外。如果出口增加了，想必对进口而言，也是一样。

underwhelming: adj. 未给人留下深刻印象的；未激起人们热情的

The economy is also highly geared towards high-value-added stuff like pharmaceuticals. Buyers of these goods and services are insensitive to price changes. Not all industries fit this mould, notably tourism. Dollars buy more rides on the London Eye than before. In June visits by foreigners (including businesspeople) were up by 7% year on year. Yet visitors seem to be economising: their overall spending in real terms is no higher than before.

英国经济也高度契合于药物等高附加值产品。这些商品和服务的买主对价位变动并不敏感。然而并不是所有的行业都适合这种模式，尤其是旅游业。现在等值的美元可以在伦敦眼乘坐更多圈次。六月份，外国人的参观比率（包括商人）同比去年上升7%。但是参观者似乎变得节约了：他们的实际总花费并不高于以往。

• insensitive：adj.麻木不仁/感觉迟钝的

• ride: n.游乐设施

• economize vi.节省，减少开支; 

Optimists maintain that the benefits of a depreciation take a long time to filter through. Firms need to get finance together and seek out new markets to exploit their new competitive advantage.

有乐观主义者坚持认为，这次贬值的益处得花好长时间才能体现出来。众多公司需要一起得到融资，寻找新市场来发挥他们的新型竞争优势。

• filter through:v.传开，散开

The case of Dr Fox’s ice-cream industry, however, suggests that exporters are in no rush. Though export revenues have risen, this largely reflects the fact that with a weaker pound a given quantity of foreign-currency sales leads to higher sterling revenues. In the first half of 2017 firms exported about the same quantity of ice cream (600m scoops, by our reckoning) as in the same period the year before. Firms seem to be using sterling’s weakness simply to bank bigger profits, rather than to move into new markets.

然而，福克斯博士冰淇淋行业的案例表明，出口商并不着急。虽然出口收入在上涨，但是很大程度上反应这样一个事实，在疲软的英镑条件下，一定量的外币外销将带动英镑增值。在2017年的上半年，英国公司出口的冰淇淋总数等同于去年同期出口（6亿勺，据我们估计）。冰淇淋公司似乎是仅仅是利用英镑贬值来存储更大的利益，而不是打入新的市场。

• revenue:n.收入

t is a similar story across the private sector. Profitability is near record highs yet investment is stalling. Last year non-financial firms stuck an extra £74bn ($96bn) in their bank accounts, by far the largest figure on record. Firms’ tentative behaviour should be a wake-up call for ministers, who expect them to lead the charge of a reorientation of British trade away from the EU after Brexit.

私营企业也面临着相似状况。利润率接近历史最高，但投资停滞不前。去年，非金融公司在其银行账户中额外存储了740亿英镑（约合960亿美元），创历史新高。英国各部长都希望这些公司可以在离开欧盟以后带头转变英国贸易的方向，而企业的试探行为应该给他们敲响警钟。

• tentative：adj. 试验性的，暂定的；踌躇的

• reorientation：n.重新定位

Following a period of stability in early 2017, sterling has once again started to slide downwards. On August 29th it hit €1.08, its lowest level against the euro since 2009. There remain few indications, however, that an export boom is around the corner. It turns out that devaluing your way to prosperity is not easy.

在经历2017年初的一段稳定之后，英镑再次开始下滑。同年8月29日，1英镑可以兑换欧元1.08欧元，也是自2009年以来英镑兑换欧元的最低价。（期待您的翻译，明天会有针对这句话的长难句解析哟~）

• indication：n.迹象

审核 丨瞐瞐、Ding、Victoria

翻译 丨 瞐瞐

图文编辑 丨crown

责任编辑 丨 杨艺