American consumers are increasingly propping up the global economy, an enduring source of strength that is helping keep the United States out of recession and drawing a sharp contrast with the rest of the world. But as a number of signs point to a possible downturn in the United States, economists are growing more skeptical that consumers will continue to open up their wallets as freely. A failure to do so could hasten the arrival of the first U.S. recession in a decade.
Low unemployment, rising wages and easy credit have given consumers the confidence and ability to spend in recent months. That has proved crucial as spending [by U.S. businesses] has declined, U.S. manufacturing has fallen into a funk, and the economies of many other large countries, including Germany, have begun to shrink.
The strength of the consumer has convinced many business leaders that the U.S. economy won't go into recession anytime soon, and it is the basis for optimism at the White House that it will remain strong into the 2020 election.
