消費電子:看好上游AI算力硬件及下游應用相關機會，看好2月面板價格上修趨勢及AI PC滲透率提升

XR：Apple Vision Pro於2/2日正式發售，正式開放向大眾的使用體驗，首發搭載超百萬兼容APP和600款原生應用。 2/2起，第一批預購開始到達顧客家門口，第一批 Apple Store 零售店現已開放店內取貨。同時，Apple Vision Pro在美國各地零售店開啟演示。消費者可以在Apple Store獲得Vision Pro演示，演示時長為25分鐘，將包括如何使用Vision Pro、提供哪些內容和應用程序等。上市之初，蘋果將推出超過100萬個兼容應用程序以及逾600個專門為Vision Pro打造的應用程序。

XR and generative AI: Vision Pro on the market in the US; Sora automates videos

XR: Apple’s Vision Pro went on sale on 2 Feb in the US (with the rest of the world to follow at a later date), equipped with over 1m compatible apps and 600 dedicated apps. The first batch of pre-orders were delivered to customers or were picked up in-store. Consumers can demo the Vision Pro in Apple stores across the country, with a guided demo lasting 25 minutes, alongside how-tos with content and app details.

AI：2月16日OpenAI發佈了首個文生視頻模型Sora，堅定看好上游AI算力硬件及下游應用相關機會。 Sora可以直接輸出長達60秒的視頻，並且包含高度細緻的背景、複雜的多角度鏡頭，以及富有情感的多個角色。它是一個擴散模型，它從類似於靜態噪聲的視頻開始，通過多個步驟逐漸去除噪聲，視頻也從最初的隨機像素轉化為清晰的圖像場景。Sora使用了Transformer架構，有極強的擴展性。Sora不僅能準確呈現細節，還能理解物體在物理世界中的存在，並生成具有豐富情感的角色。該模型還可以根據提示、靜止圖像甚至填補現有視頻中的缺失幀來生成視頻。

AI: OpenAI on 16 Feb rolled out Sora, its first text-to-video model, which increases our conviction in opportunities for AI computing upstream hardware and downstream applications. In response to text input, Sora can generate videos of up to 60 seconds that feature multiple characters with emotional nuances against detailed backdrops and from multi-angle shots. Sora is a diffusion model, which means it starts with a video that resembles static noise, then removes the noise gradually step by step to transform random pixels into a series of clean images. The model uses transformer architecture, which has good scalability. It not only renders details accurately, but also understands the presence of objects in the physical world to generate characters with emotion. It can generate videos and images in response to user prompts, as well as fill out any missing frames in an existing video.

智能手機及PC：華為預計將於24年3月發佈P70，小米Ultra 14將於24年2月底或3月初發布，蘋果或正在研摺疊機型，持續看好摺疊機成為高端手機迭代的方向。 國產主流品牌入局，中國摺疊屏手機市場發展迅速，2024年預計出貨量1000萬左右，第四季度摺疊屏手機市場份額華為快速上升；華為重磅機型P70系列手機將搭載1.5K曲面屏與超級三攝，預計將於2024年3月發佈。小米14 Ultra通過萊茵無屏閃認證，將搭載高通驍龍8 Gen 3芯片與後置全焦段5000萬像素四攝方案，預計將於2024年2月底或3月初發布。PC方面， 2月13日英偉達發佈“Chat with RTX”應用程序，是一款適用於 Windows PC 的聊天機器人，由 TensorRT-LLM 提供支持。其被設計為一個本地化系統，用戶無需上網便可使用，所有具有至少 8 GB 顯存的 GeForce RTX 30 和 40 GPU 都支持該應用程序。根據群智諮詢預計，2024年作為AI PC發展的元年，AI筆記本電腦出貨量達到1300萬臺，在筆記本電腦市場滲透率達到7%，2025年滲透率預計逼近30%，2026年滲透率會超過50%，2027年AIPC成為主流PC產品的類別，市場滲透率逼近80%。回顧23年度AIPC發展，1）端側算力解決方案從中心式轉向串聯式，ARM架構迎來增長契機，2）Copilot技術重塑鍵盤，3）終端品牌側重圖片及視頻會議相關AI功能，持續看好AI PC生態落地，驅動PC銷量及產業鏈復甦。覆盤23年度AIPC進展，初代AI PC發展重心凸顯，端側算力解決方案從中心式轉向串聯式，破除壟斷型的算力架構，ARM迎來增長契機；Copilot技術重塑鍵盤，引領30年來的重大變革；PC廠商側重圖片及視頻會議相關AI功能，並綁定關鍵部件軟硬件供應商。

Smartphones: monitor folding screen cellphones datapoints

We expect Huawei will release its P70 smartphone in March 2024E, while Xiaomi’s 14 Ultra could roll out in late February or early March. Meanwhile, Apple is said to be researching a folding model. We believe folding screen devices will point the iterative growth direction for high-end mobile phones. When mainstream Chinese brands entered the market, they set up the growth runway for the rapid takeoff of folding screen smartphones, where we expect shipments will reach 10m units in 2024E.

Huawei could grab a chunk of the folding screen market share by Q4E. We anticipate its flagship P70 series of mobile phones will have a 1.5K curved screen and triple ultra camera lens, which could be released in March.

Xiaomi: its 14 Ultra smartphone has obtained the Rheinland flicker-free certification and will be equipped with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 chip and a full-range of rear 50-megapixel quad cameras. We expect it will hit the market end-February to early March.

PCs: Nvidia launches RTX chatbot; AI PCs could be mainstream in 2027E

Nvidia released its Chat with RTX app on 13 Feb for Windows PCs, a chatbot powered by its open-source TensorRT large language model (LLM). It is designed to run locally without an internet connection and supported on all GeForce RTX 30 and 40 GPUs with at least 8 GB of video memory. Sigmaintell Consulting forecasts that in the first year of AI PC growth, shipments will reach 13m AI notebooks in 2024E. It expects penetration of the notebook market at 7%, then close to 30% by 2025E, above 50% by 2026E, and AI PCs could form the mainstream by 2027E at a market penetration rate of nearly 80%.

AI PC developments in 2023:

•Edge computing: performance computing solutions moved from centralized to serial, and ARM processor architecture expanded the growth prospects.

•Copilot technology has reshaped the keyboard.

•Images and videos: end-market brands focused on certain AI functions like imaging and video conferencing.

We remain bullish about the AI PC ecosystem buildout, which would drive PC sales and the recovery of the supply chain. As we have pinpointed above, our 2023 review of key stepping stones in the development of the first-generation AI PCs highlights the shift in edge computing solutions from centralized to serial, which restructured the computing architecture market and added growth opportunities for ARM processors. Meanwhile, copiloting technology reshaped the keyboard layout and led major changes over the past 30 years. Finally, PC manufacturers’ focus on AI functions relating to imaging and video conferencing led to the synergy of key component software and hardware suppliers.

面板：價格端、廠商進展、品牌&需求端及行業趨勢更新： 1）價格端，根據群智諮詢公眾號，2月上旬IT面板價格Monitor面板將迎來全面止跌，Notebook面板價格仍持續下滑，TV面板價格2月小幅上漲。隨後來看，2月面板價格或上漲。2024年隨著面板廠商控產夜晶面板價格有望持續抬升，預測2月份小尺寸將上漲1美元，中大尺寸將上漲2-3美元。2）廠商進展端，隨著領先OLED面板製造商第8.6代精細金屬掩模板（FMM）的OLED工廠敲定，根據Omdia預計，2024年面板設備將反彈154%，超550億元。友達光電、群創光電1月營收較去年同期雙雙上漲。3）品牌&需求端，三星AI手機S24系列韓國預定量達到121萬部；聯想有望在2月 26-29 日展示一款透明屏幕的筆記本電腦；因OLED面板成本大幅上漲，iPad Pro2024或漲價千元；23年Mini LED電視“逆勢增長”140%。4）行業趨勢，京東方23Q4可摺疊面板出貨量排名第一，看好2024年國產柔性OLED手機面板和可摺疊面板出貨持續增長。

Display panels: pricing, manufacturer progress, brands vs demand

Prices: Sigmaintell Consulting expects prices of display panels in the IT market will bottom out in early February. While the decline in notebook panel prices will likely continue, TV panel prices could rise slightly in February, and lead general panel prices to rise in February. Panel manufacturers would control production levels in 2024E so LCD panel prices could continue to rise. The price of small LCD panels could rise USD1 in February, and prices of medium-sized to large LCD panels could rise USD2-3.

Manufacturer progress: with leading OLED panel manufacturers formalizing 8.6-generation facilities to produce fine metal masks (FMM) for OLED displays, Omdia predicts panel equipment will recover by 154% to achieve a market of more than RMB55bn in 2024E. Meanwhile, revenues in January from AU Optronics and Innolux increased yoy.

Brands vs demand: South Korean pre-orders for Samsung’s AI S24 series mobile phone have reached 1.21m units, while Lenovo could showcase a transparent screen laptop in 26-29 Feb. A cost spike in OLED panels could raise prices of the 2024 iPad Pro by thousands of RMB. Mini-LED TVs bucked the trend and rose 140% in 2023.

Industry trends: BOE had the highest foldable panel shipments in 23Q4E and we are bullish that Chinese flexible OLED mobile phone panels and foldable panels will maintain shipment growth in 2024E.

PCB：PCB主要原材料價格整體處於低位，重點關注算力拉動PCB需求和高端PCB國產化。 環氧樹脂和電子級玻纖布價格處於歷史低水平。國內PCB上中游上市企業2022年全年及2023前三季度收入和利潤業績低於預期。CCL板塊需等待下游需求恢復,表現整體平緩。國內PCB廠商目前進行產能擴張重點佈局HDI板、IC封裝板等高端領域, 持續跟蹤算力為首的強需求的拉動以及樂觀看待國產化進度。

PCBs: key catalysts are performance computing and premium PCB localization

Prices of the main raw materials for printed circuit boards are generally low and the market focus remains on performance computing, which is driving PCB demand and the localization of high-end PCBs. Prices of epoxy resin and electronic-grade fiberglass fabrics are at historically low levels. Listed Chinese PCB upstream and midstream companies posted lower-than-expected revenue and profit numbers in 2022 and 23Q1-3. The market for copper-clad laminates is showing flat growth and will need to wait for downstream demand to recover. Chinese PCB manufacturers are expanding production capacities in high-end segments like HDI boards and IC packaging boards. We will continue to track demand strength in performance computing and remain bullish about the localization progress.