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瑞声科技(02018.HK):看好2021年疫情后毛利率恢复

科技硬件FLAG  · 公众号  ·  · 2021-03-27 21:32

正文

4Q20 results beat our forecast slightly
Revenue and net profit at AAC Technologies fell 10% and 0.1% YoY in 4Q20 to Rmb4.8bn and Rmb756mn, 4% and 8% higher than consensus and our expectation; GPM in 4Q20 rose 4.5ppt QoQ to 28.1%, thanks to the continuing improvement in GPM for plastic lenses and the shipment for new generation of iPhones.
Maintainour OUTPERFORM rating and HK$56.0 TP. We believe that GPM at AAC will recover from the impact of COVID-19 and Huawei’s weakness in 2021. We still expect revenue at the optics business torise 48% YoY to Rmb2.4bn, driven by growth in plastic lenses, WLG (wafer-level glass) and CCM (camera compact module) business, benefiting medium-to-long-term growth.
Trends to watch
Optics: 2021 GPM continue improving. AAC reported that optics and other revenue rose 53% YoY (13% QoQ) in 4Q20 to Rmb538mn. The ASP of plastic lenses declined 7.6% QoQ to Rmb3.29 due to SPEC downgrading smartphones because of COVID-19. Thus, we cut our 2021 optics and other revenue forecast 23% to Rmb2.4bn. With continuing improvement in plastic lenses (28% GPM in 4Q20), we expect 2021 optics GPM to improve 13.8ppt YoY to32%.
Acoustic business: GPM has upside thanks to standardization. Revenue at AAC’s acoustic businessfell 8% YoY in 4Q20, but GPM rose 5.3ppt QoQ. We cut our 2021 acoustics revenue forecast 8% to Rmb7.6bn to reflect the weaker-than-expected ASP. However, with the launch of the company’s standardized small cavity speaker module, we believe production efficiency will improve and GPM will increase to 29.9% and 29.9% in 2021 and 2022.
Electromagnetic drives & precision mechanical business: Revenue weak due to COVID-19 and Huawei. Haptic and RF mechanics revenue fell 22% YoY, but GPM rose 7.6ppt QoQ to 27.7%. We attributethe weak revenue mainly to a decline in ASP and shipment, due to COVID-19 and weakness at Huawei. Thus, we lower our 2021 revenue forecast for the segment 5% to Rmb6.9bn (up 1% YoY).
Financials and valuation
We cut our 2021 revenue and net profit forecasts 9% and 3% to Rmb18.0bn and Rmb1.96bn to reflect less-than-expected progress at the optical business. We introduce our 2022 EPS forecast at Rmb1.88 (up +16%YoY). The stock is trading at 20.4x 2021 and 17.6x 2022 P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM and our TP of HK$56.00 (29.8x 2021 P/E and 25.7x 2022 P/E), offering 45.8% upside.
Risks
Impact from COVID-19; intense competition.

Figure 1: CICC Research estimates vs.4Q20 results
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 2: Quarterly revenue and GPM
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 3: Quarterly revenue and YoY growth
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 4: Quarterly net profit and GPM
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 5: Results review
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 6: Earnings forecast revisions, by business segment
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 7: CICC Research vs. market consensus
Source: Corporate filings, Wind Info, CICC Research

Figure 8: P/E band
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

Figure 9: P/B band
Source: Wind Info, Bloomberg, CICC Research

文章来源

本文 摘自: 2021 3 27 日已经发布的 AAC Technologies (02018.HK): Optimistic on GPM recovery following COVID-19, Huawei weakness
陈旭东 SAC 执证编号 :S0080519120006 SFC CE Ref:BPH392
胡誉镜 SAC 执证编号 :S0080517100004 SFC CE Ref :BMN486
彭  虎 SAC 执证编号 :S0080521020001

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