鉴于这一段群发邮件失败过多的问题，这几周准备暂时存放经济学人杂志到网盘供大家下载，正常书籍订阅的推送不受影响。

杂志音频已经更新，回复TE点播收听。

本周分享链接: https://pan.baidu.com/s/1qYM3Xe8 密码: fmqe

虽然本周的杂志封面不是川普了，但是还是在牵挂着他的行程。川普在带着国内特别检察官对他进行调查的尴尬心情即将展开上任后的首次出访:中东。本周杂志不仅在Leaders谈论了巴以关系，还在特别报道部分用了数篇文章来讨论巴以和平。我一直对以色列这个神奇的国家充满了好奇，上次在读The Undoing Project时看到两位伟大的心理学家竟然都曾经是以色列军人，这个在被包围时刻可能被毁灭的国家是怎么一直屹立不倒，特别报道中也提到了作为创业者国度的以色列越来越富裕，这里面的机制又是什么，可惜那本Start-up Nation的书还在我的Kindle里面处于0%的状态，拖延症啊。。。（欢迎给我给我介绍更多关于以色列的书籍）。

记不清是不是在Superforecasting还是另外那本书里面提到一个故事说找经济学专家和普通人对于未来经济趋势进行预测，结果发现这些专家的准确率还不如普通人。为什么呢，本周杂志推荐的这本The End of Theory给出了他的答案：现有的经济学理论没有能够很好的理解当前的金融体系。此话题有兴趣的可以关注订阅。

AS QUEEN ELIZABETH II famously once pointed out, most economists failed to predict the crisis of 2007-08. In a lecture to the American Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas argued that macroeconomics had succeeded in so far as the “central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes”. Yet within five years the world faced its worst crisis since the 1930s.

In his new book, “The End of Theory”, Richard Bookstaber approaches the issue from a different direction, as someone who has managed risk at leading investment banks and hedge funds. He believes that “traditional economic theory, bound by its own methods and structure, is not up to the task” of predicting crises.