城市工业用地规模与二氧化硫排放量之间的关系：来自中国 294 个城市的实证研究

Although the relationship between the size of urban industrial land use and pollutant emissions has been widely discussed from different perspectives (e.g., the scale and crowding effects), the results of various studies have revealed positive, negative, and combined impact relationships. However, how the expansion of urban industrial land use affects SO ₂ emissions remains unknown. We need to clarify this relationship in order to facilitate the realization of China’s pollution reduction and emission reduction goals. This study used the panel data from 294 cities spanning from 2011 to 2019 to construct a spatial econometric model. The objective was to explore the correlation between the scale of urban industrial land and sulfur dioxide emissions in China. The results show that a large scale of urban industrial land use corresponds to lower sulfur dioxide emissions per unit of industrial added value. By gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between the scale of urban industrial land use and sulfur dioxide emissions, policymakers can further reduce pollutant emissions by rationalizing the planning of urban industrial land use and industrial layout. In addition to promoting industrial agglomeration and economies of scale in cities with extensive industrial land use, this strategy can support the development of efficient and environmentally friendly industries in areas with limited industrial land use. Optimizing the technology and encouraging the development of green industries can help reduce environmental pollution and promote sustainable urban development.

尽管城市工业用地规模与污染物排放之间的关系已从不同角度（如规模效应和拥挤效应）进行了广泛讨论，研究结果显示了正向、负向和多元的影响关系。然而，城市工业用地扩张如何影响二氧化硫排放仍不明确。为了明确这一关系，以促进中国污染物减排目标的实现，本研究利用 2011 – 2019 年的 294 个城市的面板数据，构建了一个空间计量经济学模型。结果表明：城市工业用地规模越大，单位工业增加值的二氧化硫排放量越低。通过深入了解城市工业用地规模与二氧化硫排放之间的关系，政策制定者可以通过合理规划城市工业用地和工业布局，进一步减少污染物排放。该研究的政策价值在于：在工业用地规模较大的城市促进产业集聚和规模经济，在工业用地规模有限的地区发展高效、环保的工业；优化技术和鼓励绿色产业发展可有助于减少环境污染，促进城市可持续发展。