24Q3業績情況
：Q3總收入為429億人民幣，同比+24%，環比+35.3%; 汽車銷售收入為413億人民幣，同比+22.9%，環比+36.3%，主要歸因於汽車交付量的增加; 2024年第三季度其他銷售和服務收入為16億人民幣，同比增長45.8%，環比增長14.1%，主要歸因於車輛累計銷量的增加以及車輛的交付量增加，產品和服務的銷售額亦隨之增加。
盈利情況
：整體毛利率21.5%，其中車輛毛利率20.9%，我們預計L6初步爬坡毛利率高於預期后H2還有進一步規模效應降本邏輯。淨利潤為28億人民幣，同比一致，環比增長156.2%; Non-GAAP凈利潤為39億人民幣，同比增長11.1%，環比增長156.2%。
汽車銷量情況：理想24Q3共交付152831台，同比增長45.4%，在20萬元以上新能源汽車市場佔有率從Q2的14.4%提升到Q3的17.3%，位居中國20萬及以上乘用車國產汽車首位。
公司在中國20萬元及以上乘用車市場的銷售首次超越多個成熟的歐洲高端品牌，在所有品牌中躋身前三，並在所有中國品牌中位居第一。自2023年至今，在30萬元以上新能源汽車市場，理想L7、理想L9和理想L8三款車型的總交付量分別位於細分市場銷量第一、第二和第三位; 理想L6自發佈以來，單月的交付量超過了25000台，累計交付量超過13.9萬輛，在20萬元以上乘用車市場位列第二名，僅次於特斯拉的Model Y。
智能駕駛取得突破：10月公司發佈了理想MEGA和L系列的OTA6.4更新，實現智能駕駛、智能空間和智能電動方面的功能新增和升級; 公司向超過32萬理想AD MAX車主全量推送了結合端到端（E2E）和視覺語言模型（VLM）的全新智駕方案。此外，理想同學繼續進化，通過升級語音模型和新增眼神跟蹤等功能，實現更自然擬人的用戶互動。
我們認為公司在智駕取得的突破將有望推動訂單進一步增長。
門店與基礎設施布局持續完善
：截止2024年9月30日，
理想汽車在全國145個城市中運營479家零售中心，在221個城市運營436家售後服務中心及反饋中心
。在充電網絡建設方面，
理想汽車已經運營894座理想超級充電站，配備4286根超級充電樁
，或將提升用戶體驗，推動更多用戶選擇公司產品。
後續展望
：Q4汽車交付量指引
16萬-17萬
，同比增長21.4%-29%; 總收入指引
432億-459億
，同比增長
3.5%-10%
。
We believe pessimism over weak consumer transactions in the China market petered out in Q3. Helped by China’s trade-in policy, auto consumption had a slight uptick in July. We reckon Li Auto’s fundamental strength led a gradual business recovery in Q3-4E, with smart driving tech advances driving per-vehicle value/gross margin growth. Maintain BUY.
The gist: BUY
· 24Q3E revenue uptrend with flat earnings growth yoy
· Q3 sales: over-RMB200k car category outperformed top European brands
· Smart driving version 6.4 and other tech upgrades could drive sales growth
24Q3E results: revenue uptrend with flat earnings growth yoy
24Q3E results
: the company’s unaudited results for the third quarter showed flat profit growth on strong revenue growth:
· Revenue
was RMB42.9bn in 24Q3E, up 24% yoy and up 35.3% qoq, comprising:
- Automobile sales revenue of RMB41.3bn, up 22.9% yoy and up 36.3% qoq, mainly because of higher auto deliveries; and
- Other sales and services revenue of RMB1.6bn, up 45.8% yoy and up 14.1% qoq, mainly due to an increase in cumulative vehicle sales and higher vehicle deliveries, which increased sales of products and services accordingly.
· Profitability
:
- Gross margin was 21.5% in Q3E, of which vehicle gross margin was 20.9%. With the L6 series showing higher-than-expected gross margin initially, we expect further scale economies on cost reduction in H2E.
- Net profit was RMB2.8bn, flat yoy and up 156.2% qoq; with non-GAAP net profit at RMB3.9bn, up 11.1% yoy and up 156.2% qoq.
Q4E guidance
: Li Auto expects to deliver 160,000-170,000 vehicles in Q4E, up 21.4-29% yoy; which would generate total revenue of RMB43.2bn-45.9bn, up 3.5-10% yoy.
Q3 sales: over-RMB200k car category outperformed top European brands
Over-RMB200k category new record
: Li Auto delivered 152,831 cars in Q3, up 45.4% yoy, and its market share of above-RMB200,000 new energy vehicles (NEV) expanded from 14.4% in Q2 to 17.3% in Q3, the largest share among domestically produced Chinese passenger cars. This marks the first time Li Auto’s sales surpassed several mature European premium brands in this category, placing it within the top three brands overall, and taking top spot among Chinese brands.
Over-RMB300k category
: Li Auto’s deliveries of its L7, L9 and L8 models have taken top, second and third places since 2023 respectively in the above-RMB 300,000 NEV category, based on sales volume.
L6
: as for the L6, since its launch in April, Li Auto has delivered more than 25,000 cars per month or more than 139,000 cars cumulatively; this pushed Li Auto to second place in the above-RMB200,000 passenger car category, after Tesla’s Model Y.
Smart driving version 6.4 and other tech upgrades could drive sales growth
Li Auto released in October smart driving version 6.4 via OTA for its MEGA and L series vehicles. It upgrades smart driving, smart space and smart electric products. The company pushed its new smart driving solution, which combines end-to-end and visual language modeling, to over 320,000 Li AD MAX owners. Li Auto continues to evolve to more natural and anthropomorphic user interaction with voice model upgrades and new eye tracking features. Its smart driving upgrades could drive further order growth.
Store network buildout and improving infrastructure
Li Auto operates 479 retail centers in 145 cities across China as of 30 Sep 2024 and 436 after-sales service centers and feedback centers in 221 cities. Its charging network has 894 supercharging stations, equipped with 4,286 supercharging piles, which enhance user experience and encourage more users to choose the company’s products.
