【中金科技】舜宇光学科技（02382.HK）：2H20净利润超预期，手机模组毛利率强劲

科技硬件FLAG · 公众号 · · 2021-03-18 08:47

正文

2H20 results beat our forecast by 22% thanks to strong CCM GPM

Sunny reported 2H20 results: Revenue declined 14% YoY but net profit grew 22% YoY in 2H20. Net profit beat our forecast by 22%, thanks to strong margin (up +4.3ppt YoY) and favorable foreign exchange gain (Rmb340mn).

We think the biggest positive surprise of Sunny’s 2H20 results is the 14.2% GPM of optoelectronic products - mainly CMOS camera module (CCM) - which increased by 2.6ppt YoY and 3.1ppt HoH, and hit the company’s historical record. However, according to our estimates, the ASP of CCM and handset lens declined 14% YoY and 17% YoY in 2H20, respectively, reflecting the downgrade of SPECS in the smartphone market caused by COVID-19 and Huawei’s weakness, in our opinion.

Trends to watch

Major positive: CCM GPM beat expectations. GPM of CCM increased 2.6ppt YoY to 14.2% in 2H20 from 11.6% in 2H19, which is 5.8ppt higher than our expectations. We believe this positive change is mainly due to improved yield from automation and favorable foreign exchange. We believe Sunny’s short-term earnings are highly sensitive to the GPM in CCM business, and the different GPM forecasts may lead to divergence in investor’s opinion to Sunny.

Major negative: ASP declined YoY caused by SPECS downgrade. According to our calculation, CCM ASP decreased by 14% to Rmb41.3 in 2H20 from Rmb48.0 in 2H19, which underperformed our estimates by 11%. Handset lens ASP decreased by 17% YoY to Rmb4.1 in 2H20 from Rmb4.9 in 2H19, which underperformed our estimates by 22%. The GPM of optical component segment (mainly Lens products) also declined 2.3ppt to 43.7%, also below our expectations. This result may raise investors’ concerns on intensified competition in the lens market.

Analyst briefing on March 18. Sunny should share more details at its analyst briefing. We believe investors will focus on the market outlook and full-year guidance given by Sunny’s management.

Financials and valuation

We keep our 2021 - 2022 earnings forecasts unchanged. The stock is trading at 28.1x 2021 and 24.8x 2022 P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our TP of HK$225.0 (35.4x 2020 P/E and 31.2x 2021 P/E). We will revisit our forecast according to the firm’s 2021 guidance after the analyst meeting.

Risks

COVID-19 impact; China-US trade friction.

Figure 1: 2H20 and 2020 review: Actual vs.CICC vs. consensus