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周大福: 季度內零售值同比+12.4%,整體店效穩步提升

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-05-10 21:02

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group

(1929 HK)


季度內零售值同比+12.4%,整體店效穩步提升


CY24Q1 business update: retail sales value rose 12.4% yoy and total store efficiency improved

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要点/Investment Thesis

事件: 公司發佈截止2024年3月31日止三個月主要經營數據。FY24Q4集團銷售額同比+12.4%,其中中國內地零售值同比+12.4%,中國香港、中國澳門及其他市場同比+12.8%。另外,季內中國內地同店銷售同比-2.7%,中國香港及中國澳門同店銷售同比+4.5%。


同店銷售表現: 中國內地同店銷售受惠於節日需求,但由於基數較高,季內同店銷售減少。但中國香港受益於入境旅遊持續恢復,同店銷售同比+8.9%,中國澳門同店銷售同比-7.1%。


加盟表現: 受益於整體店鋪效益提升及過去12個月的新開門店,中國內地周大福珠寶加盟店的零售值季內顯著提升18.3%,而且對於相關零售值的貢獻擴大至70.4%(FY23Q4爲67.2%)。


FYQ4 business update: total RSV up 12.4%; mainland up 12.4%, others up 12.8%

Sales performance: Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (CTF) recently released key operating data for FY24Q4 (CY24Q1) with sales expanding 12.4% yoy. By market region:

•Mainland retail sales value (RSV) rose 12.4% yoy and same-store sales (SSS) fell 2.7% yoy in the quarter.

•Hong Kong, Macau and other markets’ collective RSV grew 12.8% yoy and SSS increased 4.5% yoy.

•Factors: SSS in mainland of China benefited from holiday demand but declined yoy relative to the high comparative base. Hong Kong benefited from a steady recovery in inbound tourism as SSS lifted 8.9% yoy, although Macau SSS fell 7.1% yoy.


Franchises: franchised operations benefited from higher total store efficiency with new store openings in the past 12 months. CTF franchised stores’ RSV in the mainland shot up 18.3% in FY24Q4 and their RSV share expanded to 70.4% (vs 67.2% in FY23Q4).


各品類表現:

1)黃金品類: 中國內地黃金品類同店銷售同比+3.4%,平均售價保持韌性,上升至5700港元(FY23Q4爲5200港元),主要由於龍在中國文化中寓意吉祥,市場對龍年主題的黃金產品反應強烈;中國港澳地區黃金品類同店銷售同比+16.6%,平均售價上升至7500港元(FY23Q4爲7000港元)。


2)鑲嵌品類: 中國內地鑲嵌、鉑金及K金首飾同店銷售同比-19.5%,中國港澳同店銷售同比-27.2%,平均售價也均有所下滑,內地爲8200港元(FY23Q4爲8400港元),港澳爲15800港元(FY23Q4爲17900港元),因珠寶鑲嵌首飾非必需消費品,受經濟環境影響相對疲弱。


Product categories in FYQ4: dragon-themed jewelry fired up gold SSS and ASP

Gold products:

•Mainland: SSS of gold jewelry increased 3.4% yoy in the quarter, adding elasticity to ASP, which rose to HKD5,700 (vs HKD5,200 in FY23Q4). Dragon-themed gold products were a strong sales driver (this is the year of the dragon in the Chinese zodiac), as Chinese culture associates it with good luck.

•Hong Kong and Macau: SSS increased 16.6% yoy, while ASP rose to HKD7,500 (vs HKD7,000 in FY23Q4).


Inlaid, platinum and K-gold jewelry:

•Mainland: SSS fell 19.5% yoy and ASP also declined to HKD8,200 (vs HKD8,400 in FY23Q4).

•Hong Kong and Macau: SSS fell 27.2% yoy and ASP fell to HKD15,800 (vs HKD17,900 in FY23Q4).

•Factors: consumers generally regard inlaid jewelry as discretionary purchases, so sales tend to be weaker relative to the economic environment.


開店情況: 中國內地周大福珠寶零售點達7403家,季內在中國內地淨關閉89個珠寶零售點,24財年在中國內地共淨開設143個珠寶零售點。中國香港、中國澳門及其他市場周大福珠寶零售店達145家,季內淨開設1家,24財年共淨開設10家。綜合其他副線品牌與其他區域市場,截止24年3月31日,集團共計7782個零售點,較23年3月31日淨增加136個。


Global store network: 136 more outlets than a year ago, including sub-brands

•CTF mainland: the company currently has 7,403 CTF jewelry retail outlets in its main market, after net closures of 89 outlets in FY24Q4 and net openings of 143 outlets in FY24.

•CTF other markets: CTF has 145 jewelry retail stores in Hong Kong, Macau and other markets, after net opening one store in FYQ4 and 10 stores in FY24.

•Global network: including sub-brands in other regional markets, the company has 7,782 retail outlets in total as of 31 March 2024, a net increase of 136 from FY23Q4.



投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 公司將重塑品牌形象,增強品牌吸引力,打造銷售韌性,同時優化產品組合,提高運營效率。我們預計FY24-26歸母淨利潤分別爲77/88/100億港元,對應PE分別爲13/11/10x,維持“買入”評級。


Valuation and risks

CTF plans to enhance its image with a rebrand and to build up sales resilience, as well as improve its product portfolio and operational efficiency. We are projecting net profit of HKD7.7bn/8.8bn/10bn in FY24/25/26E, corresponding to 13x/11x/10x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: 拓店不及預期、新店銷售不及預期、金價波動風險等


Risks include: slower-than-expected store opening pace; weaker-than-expected new store sales; and gold price volatility.



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