北极增温效应致西南亚沙尘减少，加速防沙治沙以实现碳中和目标
Arctic amplification–induced decline in West and South Asia dust warrants stronger antidesertification toward carbon neutrality
Arctic amplification–induced decline in West and South Asia dust warrants stronger antidesertification toward carbon neutrality.pdf
近日，香港浸会大学的研究人员揭示了西亚和南亚地区沙尘负载量在过去几十年内显著减少的现象，并将其原因归结于人为全球变暖引发的北极放大效应所导致的大气环流变化。研究表明，过量的沙尘负载不仅威胁公共健康和粮食安全，还对区域及全球气候产生深远影响。通过多种高质量遥感数据的分析，研究人员发现西亚和南亚的沙尘负载在过去二十年中呈现出持续下降的趋势。
与之前研究着重于本地土地利用变化不同，此次研究强调北极放大效应所带来的中纬度大气环流异常是沙尘减少的主因。北极放大效应导致从西伯利亚西部到印度东北部的深槽加深，从而抑制了沙尘的排放和下游输送。此外，气候模型的大量模拟结果进一步支持了温室气体引起的北极放大效应在调节西亚和南亚沙尘负载中的主导作用。
展望未来，不同排放情景下的预测显示，随着全球向碳中和目标迈进，这一地区可能会面临沙尘负载增加的潜在风险。因此，研究人员强调，加强本地化的防治荒漠化措施（如植树造林和灌溉管理）尤为重要，以配合更广泛的气候减缓战略，从而有效应对未来可能的沙尘问题。
Fig.1 Temporal variations of DOD. (
A
) Spatial distribution of DOD trend (1 per year) from 2008 to 2019. Black dots denote areas with significant trend (
P
< 0.05). (
B
) Spatial distribution of changes of DOD from the Pre-period (2008 to 2013) to the Post-period (2014 to 2019) period. Whited-out areas in (
A
and
B
) are plateau regions with missing data. The spatial distributions of DOD changes in percentage are shown in
SI Appendix
, Fig. S1
C
and
D
. (
C
) Time series of spatially averaged DOD anomalies over West and South Asia (land regions enclosed by purple dashed lines in
A
). (
D
) Time series of spatially averaged DOD anomalies over Northern India Ocean (ocean regions enclosed by blue dashed lines in
B
, including the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, the Laccadive Sea and the Bay of Bengal). (
E
) Time series of percentage changes of spatially averaged DOD anomalies over West and South Asia lands as in (
A
). (
F
) Time series of percentage changes of spatially averaged DOD anomalies over the oceans around West and South Asia as in (
B
).
Fig. 2 Temporal variations of MODIS AOD, CALIOP DOD, and AERONET AOD. (
A
) Spatial distribution of MODIS AOD trend (1 per year) from 2003 to 2019. Black dots denote areas with significant trends (
P
< 0.05). (
B
) Spatial distribution of CALIOP DOD trend (1 per year) from 2007 to 2019. Black dots denote areas with significant trends (
P
< 0.05). Time series of spatially averaged MODIS AOD over the Thar Desert (
C
), Baluchistan & Afghanistan (
D
), Northern Arabian Sea (
E
), and Persian Gulf (
F
) during May to July from 2003 to 2019. Time series of spatially averaged daily (
G
), daytime (
H
), and nighttime (
I
) CALIOP DOD over the Middle East (12°N to 38°N, 32°E to 62°E, red box in
B
) from 2007 to 2019. (
J
) Percentage decrease in DOF (calculated using CALIPSO dust profiles) over the Middle East (red square in
B
, original CALIPSO orbit tracks are shown in
SI Appendix
, Fig. S18
) from the first 3 y (2007 to 2009) to the last 3 y (2017 to 2019). (
K
) Spatial distribution of AERONET AOD trend (1 per year) from 2008 to 2019. (
L
) Time series of AERONET AOD and IASI DOD anomalies at AERONET sites over West and South Asia from 2008 to 2019.
Fig.3 Surface warming, Arctic amplification intensity, land-sea temperature contrast, and zonal wind. (
A
) Spatial distribution of surface temperature changes from Pre-period to Post-period. (
B
) Time series of Arctic amplification intensity anomalies over the 2008 to 2019 period. (
C
) Time series of averaged zonal wind at 850 hPa over the 2008 to 2019 period in the main dust transport region of West and South Asia (20°N to 30°N, 40°E to 70°E, black dashed square in
A
). (
D
) Time series of land-sea temperature contrast over the 2008 to 2019 period. Land areas and sea areas are delineated in
Fig. 1
A
and
B
.
Fig.4 Spatial distribution of changes in geopotential height, atmospheric circulation, and temperature. (
A
) Spatial distribution of geopotential height and wind changes at 100 hPa. The brown line represents the location of trough. (
B
) Spatial distribution of averaged DOD over the 2008 to 2019 period and wind changes at 850 hPa. The climatology of wind vectors is shown in
SI Appendix
, Fig. S1
B
. Purple lines indicate increased geopotential height of 8 dagpm at 850 hPa. (
C
) Changes of zonal mean air temperature and wind from 20°N to 30°N (as in the box of
Fig. 3
A
). Vertical velocity is amplified by a factor of 10 for clarity.
Fig.5 Annual dust flux anomalies. (
A
) DEI, atmospheric circulation at 850 hPa and locations of three sections (blue line S1: 15° to 35°N, 40°E, yellow line S2: 15° to 35°N, 62°E and purple line S3: 15° to 35°N, 73°E). Vertically integrated dust flux anomalies at section (
B
) S1, (
C
) S2 and (
D
) S3.
研究人员通过分析卫星数据，揭示了西亚和南亚地区的沙尘负载在过去十年间持续减少的显著趋势。研究表明，从2008年到2019年，西亚和南亚的沙尘光学深度（DOD）显著下降，尤其是印度河-恒河平原和波斯湾沿岸地区的下降幅度最为显著。研究人员通过对沙尘源头和大气输送的长期监测，发现北极放大效应所引发的中纬度大气环流变化在沙尘减少中扮演了关键角色。
研究指出，北极放大效应导致西西伯利亚至印度东北部的深槽加深，使得高纬度的冷空气进入中纬度地区，从而抑制了沙尘的排放和输送。此外，随着区域降水量的增加和土壤湿度的提高，尤其是在中东地区，这些因素共同促进了沙尘排放的减少。未来情景预测表明，随着全球朝碳中和目标迈进，沙尘负载可能再次上升，这为该地区未来的防治荒漠化工作提出了挑战。因此，研究人员建议在全球碳减排的同时，进一步加强本地的防治荒漠化措施，以减少潜在的自然沙尘排放
。
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https://www.springer.com/journal/44246
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