主讲人：
Xiao Ma (Peking University HSBC Business School)
主持老师：
（北大经院）韩晗
参与老师：
（北大经院）陈仪、李博、李伦
（北大国发院）赵波、余昌华、李明浩
时间：
2024年11月21日（周四）
14:00-15:30
地点：
北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园344教室
主讲人简介：
Xiao Ma received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, San Diego in 2021. He is currently an assistant professor at Peking University HSBC Business School. His work mainly focuses on international trade, macroeconomics, and economic development. He has published in journals such as
Economic Research Journal (Chinese), International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, and Review of Economics and Statistics
.
摘要：
This paper documents that agricultural productivity gaps have not declined on average over the last three decades despite global reductions in agriculture's share of aggregate employment. Moreover, the dynamics of agricultural productivity gaps have been highly heterogeneous across countries, with significant increases in some large economies, like China and India. To explain these patterns we build a quantitative multi-sector model with imperfect mobility of labor across sectors, frictional international trade, and uneven growth of relative prices and real productivity levels across countries and sectors. Agricultural productivity gaps rise in the model whenever aggregate income levels or real productivity in the non-agriculture sector rises sufficiently fast relative to movements of workers out of agriculture. We estimate the model to match time series patterns of exports by sector and country, among other statistics, which help discipline the model's real sectoral productivity growth rates. Quantitatively, the model does well in accounting for the dynamics of productivity gaps across countries. Consistent with the model's predictions, previous exports by sector are strong predictors of agricultural productivity gaps in the current cross-section of countries, in line with the view that the gaps reflect real economic factors rather than mismeasurement.
