事件：
北京時間2025年1月1日，貓眼研究院發佈《2024中國電影市場數據洞察》。2024年，中國電影總票房實現425.02億，同比下滑23%。其中，總觀影人次突破10億，同比減少約2.9億; 場均人次7.1，與22年數據基本持平。市場整體優質內容供給不足，票房缺乏頭部電影拉動。國產、進口上映影片數量分別為425部、76部，同比均略有下降，整體市場供給尚未恢復至疫情前水準。其中，其中票房超10億新片共7部，數量相比往年有所減少。
在線娛樂票務：在線電影票務業務受大盤影響，線下演出票務貢獻業績彈性
2024年，我們預計公司在線娛樂票務業務實現收入19.4億元，同比下滑14.2%，跌幅小於大盤，主要系線下演出業務貢獻業績彈性。1）在線電影票務：根據《2024中國電影市場數據洞察》，中國電影總票房實現425.02億元，同比下滑23%，恢復至2019年的66%; 觀影人次突破10億，同比下滑22.3%，恢復至2019年的58.4%。我們認為，2024電影市場整體優質內容供給不足，票房缺乏頭部電影拉動。在後續影片供給及觀影總人次的驅動下，2025年中國電影票房表現仍有較大的提升空間。2）線下演出票務：截至2024年第三季度，全國營業性演出票房收入398.26億元，實現2023年全年的79.3%，線下演出市場呈現上升態勢。根據中國演出行業協會數據，2024年前三季度累計觀演人次達1.36億，較23年同期同比提升22.9%，主要系觀演需求疊加出行和旅遊需求，演出消費與其他品類消費相結合，驅動全國演出市場持續增長。我們認為，隨著公司加大投入拓展業務類型，有望進一步增強演出票務業務競爭力。票務總代理方面，2024年上半年貓眼娛樂提供服務的大型演唱會專案超3000場，包括張學友、劉德華、周杰倫等多位頭部藝人，演唱會、音樂節的GMV同比增長約3倍; 本地演出覆蓋率超95%，並助力陝西、浙江、四川等多個省市的文化惠民活動，拉動地方文旅消費。境外市場方面，除了為香港地區的各類演出活動提供支援服務外，貓眼娛樂還拓展了包括澳門地區在內的多個新的國家和地區的演出活動業務，並在東南亞、中東、拉美等多個地區積極探索合作場景，加強演出等業務合作。我們認為，在線電影票務業務或受大盤影響短期承壓，在線下演出市場供需強勁、活躍度提升的大趨勢下，貓眼娛樂在線下演出票務方面的擴展有望帶來業績彈性。
娛樂內容服務：持續推進電影內容的開發製作，關注參股公司後續高關注專案上線貢獻業績彈性
根據貓眼研究院發佈《2024中國電影市場數據洞察》，2024年我國電影總票房為425.02億元，觀影總人次為10.1億，同比分別下降22.7%和22.3%。2024年，我們預計公司娛樂內容服務板塊業務實現收入20.4億元，同比下滑11.4%，主要系公司參與專案《解密》、《危機航線》票房表現不及預期。1）內容投資方面，2024年公司參與出品的國產影片總計35部，同時，
公司進一步提升重要檔期頭部影片的參與數量和深度
，包括主發春節檔《飛馳人生2》，五一檔《末路狂花錢》，暑期檔《默殺》《抓娃娃》《解密》，國慶檔《危機航線》等。我們認為，隨著公司優質項目參與度提升，貓眼娛樂有望持續釋放業績彈性。截至1月16日，公司春節檔定檔專案包括《唐探1900》《熊出沒·重啟未來》，貓眼想看人數分別為83.3萬和30.4萬。參股公司光線傳媒《哪吒之魔童鬧海》定檔春節，貓眼想看人數為74.9萬，系列前作實現票房破50億元。後續內容儲備類型豐富、題材多樣。由貓眼娛樂參與發行或出品的《醬園弄》《水餃皇后》《天才遊戲》《時間之子》等影片將擇期上映。2）宣發服務方面，2024年上半年貓眼娛樂參與宣發的國產電影共31部，其中主控發行15部，超歷史同期水準。其中，2024年中國電影票房前十的影片中，包括《飛馳人生2》《抓娃娃》《默殺》《年會不能停！》在內的4部由貓眼主控宣發。我們認為，隨著公司不斷深化其宣發能力，有望助力影片在票房和熱度上取得優異表現。
A study by Maoyan’s research unit faults weak content for the Chinese movie market’s sluggish numbers in 2024. We would monitor the impact of key film releases ahead, mindful that the company’s growing involvement in major film projects impacts profit elasticity. We maintain our BUY call.
The gist: BUY
·Study: China cinema market was lackluster in 2024 on a lack of content films
·Ticketing: Maoyan’s online sales declined less than that of the industry
·Film production: profitability impact of invested companies’ major releases
Study: China cinema market was lackluster in 2024 due to a lack of content films
This report discusses the findings of a study on the Chinese film industry by Maoyan Research Institute, a data-crunching outfit under Maoyan Entertainment. The study is entitled, 2024 China Film Market Data Insights, and was released on 1 Jan 2025.
Highlights:
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Box-office receipts: Chinese film box office generated RMB42.50bn in 2024, 23% less than the previous year.
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Moviegoers: Chinese cinemas admitted just over 1bn movie viewers in 2024, 290m fewer than in 2023; averaging 7.1 viewers per show, roughly similar to 2022.
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Film supply: the line-up in 2024 saw 425 Chinese films and 76 foreign films being released, registering declines vs 2023; the Chinese box office lacked the crowd pull of blockbuster movies as quality content was insufficient. Film supply in the industry had yet to catch up with pre-pandemic levels, with only seven film releases crossing the RMB1bn hurdle in box-office receipts in 2024, lower than in previous years.
Entertainment ticketing: Maoyan’s online sales declined less than the industry
Key data:
we believe Maoyan fared better vs the industry and expect its online entertainment ticketing revenue would have reached RMB1.94bn in 2024E. We reckon the 14.2% decline was softer than that of the industry, due to a boost from its offline entertainment sales, which strengthened the company’s profit elasticity.
China’s entertainment ticketing business:
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Online movie ticketing: the study revealed that the Chinese film industry’s box office sales declined 23% to RMB42.50bn last year, which was equivalent to about 66% of the 2019 level. Chinese cinemas admitted just over 1bn moviegoers, 22.3% lower than in 2023, and comprising 58.4% of the 2019 level. We attribute the decline to a lack of content films in 2024, which indicates substantial room for growth in 2025E.
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Offline performance arts: China’s ticket sales for staged shows tracked an uptrend in 24Q3 at RMB39.83bn, 79.3% of the full-year 2023 level. Audience numbers reached 136m in 24M9, up 22.9% yoy, according to data from the China Association of Performing Arts. We attribute the uptrend to demand for the shows, on top of that driven by the travel and tourism market, as a widening variety of shows continues to drive consumption of the performance arts market in China. In this business, Maoyan is increasing investments to widen its performance arts categories, which we anticipate will raise its competitiveness.
General ticketing agency business:
Maoyan Entertainment serviced more than 3,000 large-scale concerts in 24H1, including those for top artistes like Jacky Cheung, Andy Lau and Jay Chou. Its concerts and music festivals GMV increased about 3x yoy in the period. The coverage rate of Chinese performances was above 95%. Cultural benefit activities in many provinces and cities, including Shaanxi, Zhejiang and Sichuan, boosted local cultural and tourism consumption.
Non mainland markets:
in addition to Hong Kong, Maoyan extended its performance arts support services to many new markets, including Macau, and explored collaborative scenarios in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and elsewhere to strengthen cooperation in business areas like stage performances.
Outlook:
we believe the online movie ticketing business will remain under short-term pressure on the impact of the broader market. As for the offline performance arts business, in view of generally strong supply and demand, and growing market activity, we believe Maoyan Entertainment’s expansion in this business will add profit elasticity.
Film content: profit elasticity impact from invested companies’ major releases
Key data:
China’s box-office takings amounted to RMB42.50bn in 2024 (down 22.7%), contributed by 1.01bn moviegoers (down 22.3%). We built in our projection of Maoyan’s entertainment content services revenue at RMB2.04bn in 2024E, down 11.4%, mainly because two film projects it participated in, Decoded and High Forces, had lower box-office takings than expected.
Content investments:
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Leveling up: Maoyan invested in 35 Chinese film productions in 2024, scaling up and broadening its involvement in headline movies timed for key release periods, such as Pegasus 2 for the Chinese New Year holiday; The Last Frenzy for May Day; A Place Called Silence, Successor and Decoded for the summer holidays; and High Forces for China’s National Day holiday week. We anticipate its deepening involvement in quality projects will continue to add incremental profit elasticity.
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Chinese New Year 2025 pipeline: Maoyan’s projects slated for the coming Chinese New Year line-up include Detective Chinatown 1900 and Boonie Bears: Future Reborn, with 833,000 and 304,000 Maoyan users adding the shows to their reserve lists. Nezha 2, by its invested company Enlight Media, is also scheduled for release during the holiday and 749,000 users have reserved it on Maoyan; the first film in the series had raked in more than RMB5bn in box-office takings.
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Later pipeline: the content pipeline for subsequent film releases appears to cover a wide range of genres and subject matter. They include She’s Got No Name, The Dumpling Queen, Game Start and Endless Journey of Love, which have been co-produced or distributed by Maoyan Entertainment.
Promotion and distribution services:
Maoyan participated in the promotion and distribution of 31 Chinese films in 24H1, including as the major distributor for 15 of them, more than in 23H1. Maoyan also promoted and distributed four out of the top ten Chinese films in 2024 based on box-office receipts: Pegasus 2, Successor, A Place Called Silence and Johnny Keep Walking!
Outlook:
as Maoyan increases marketing and promotion capabilities, we expect its film projects will perform better in terms of both box-office takings and consumer mindshare.
