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Duolingo: 2024Q2業績點評: 營收超預期,DAU與MAU迅速增長

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-08-28 17:57

正文

Duolingo

(DUOL US)


2024Q2業績點評: 營收超預期,DAU與MAU迅速增長


Q2E revenue surpassed Bloomberg expectations with fast growing DAU and MAU engagement


TP:USD258.00    BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

Duolingo 2024Q2公司實現收入1.78億美元 ,同比+41%,略高於彭博一致預期(1.77億美元);毛利潤爲1.31億美元,略高於彭博一致預期(1.30億美元);毛利率爲73.45%,略高於彭博一致預期(73.35%)。調整後EBITDA 0.48億美元,同比+130%,超越彭博一致預期(0.39億美元)。調後EBITDA利潤率爲27.0%,超越彭博一致預期(21.65%);Non-GAAP EPS 0.51美元,大超彭博一致預期(0.35美元)。


Unaudited Q2E results: revenue up 41% yoy; adjusted EBITDA up 130% yoy

Duolingo released unaudited 24Q2E results on 7 Aug 2024:

Revenue came to USD178m, up 41% yoy, slightly more the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) of USD177m;

Gross profit was USD131m, again a tad above BBG’s USD130m; with gross margin at 73.45%, vs BBG’s 73.35%;

Adjusted EBITDA rose 130% yoy to USD48m, beating BBG’s USD39m; with adjusted EBITDA margin at 27.0%, vs BBG’s 21.65%;

Non-GAAP EPS came to USD0.51, beating BBG’s USD0.35.


DAU、MAU增長迅速,DAU與MAU比例創歷史新高: 二季度,Duolingo 付費訂閱人數達800萬,同比+52%,超越彭博一致預期(773萬);DAU 達3410萬,同比+59%,超越彭博一致預期(3292萬);MAU 達1.04億,同比+40%,超越彭博一致預期(9801萬);DAU與MAU比例爲33%,達到歷史新高。


Duolingo Max: 作爲最高定價服務層級,Max已在27個國家的五種語言課程中推出,覆蓋15%的DAU。Duolingo計劃持續推進該服務,預計年底前Max將能在大多數國家的Android和iOS上使用,大部分用戶將接觸到它;同時,爲之增加例如AI驅動的實際對話練習的新功能。


Operational metrics: record 33% DAU to MAU ratio; 8m paying subs in Q2E

Key metrics: daily and monthly active users (DAU and MAU) have been trending upward, with the DAU to MAU ratio at a record high in Q2E:

•Paying subscribers numbered 8m, an increase of 52% yoy, vs BBG’s 7.73m;

•DAU reached 34.1m, 59% more yoy, vs BBG’s 32.92m;

•MAU numbered 104m, 40% more yoy, vs BBG’s 98.01m;

•DAU-to-MAU ratio set a record 33%.


Premium tier: Duolingo Max, the company’s highest-priced service tier, offers courses in five languages across 27 countries. Its users account for 15% of DAU. Duolingo wants to upgrade its premium service and widen its global market access. It plans to make Max available on both Android and iOS systems across most countries by end-2024. The company would add new AI-enabled features such as real-life conversation practice.


業績指引: 公司預計三季度收入1.87-1.90億美元;調整後EBITDA 0.40-0.43億美元,EBITDA 利潤率 21.5-22.5%。公司將2024全年收入預期從7.27-7.36億美元上調至7.31-7.38億美元;全年調整後EBITDA從1.67-1.77億美元上調至1.76-1.85億美元,EBITDA 利潤率23-24%從上調至24-25%。


Guidance upgrade: Duolingo expects USD731m-738m revenue in 2024E

•24Q3E: Duolingo guides third-quarter revenue to range USD187m-190m, with adjusted EBITDA at USD40m-43m on an EBITDA margin of 21.5-22.5%.

•2024E: it raised 2024E guidance to USD731m-738m revenue (previously USD727m-736m), with adjusted EBITDA at USD176m-185m (previously USD167m-177m) and EBITDA margin at 24-25% (previously 23-24%).




投資建議/Investment Ideas


投資建議: 業務上,家庭計劃及分層訂閱計劃爲學習者提供多價位選擇,利於公司提升盈利能力。家庭計劃增長出色,約佔訂閱者20%,個人訂閱者轉化爲家庭計劃使用者比率上升;Max的推出和功能的增加預計將在2025年更全面地影響公司業績。公司表示未來隨着AI成本的下降,更多付費的AI功能將會在Super或者Free層級對用戶開放,AI功能預計將更廣泛的推廣併爲用戶帶來更好的使用體驗。我們看好Duolingo出色的用戶體驗帶來的付費轉化率提升。建議關注:Duolingo。


Valuation and risks

Subscription structure: Duolingo’s family plan and different subscription tiers collectively provides learners with multiple price-point options to increase total profitability. Penetration of the family plan has increased to account for about 20% of subscribers, along with the growing conversion of individual-to-family subscribers. The premium Max tier with additional functionalities was launched in 2023 and we expect to see its full business impact only in the 2025E results.


Widening AI features: as AI costs continue to fall in the future, the company said it will be able to make more paid AI features available to other users in the Super and Free tiers. Duolingo intends to widen the reach of AI functionalities to enhance user experience.


Valuation: we anticipate Duolingo’s social-first marketing strategy and excellent user experience will help drive up its paid user conversion rates. We forecast revenue will come at USD734m/933m/1.17bn in 2024/25/26E, corresponding to 12x/9.5x/7.5x PS, and GAAP net profit at USD68m/119m/178m. We assign a 12x PS for 2025E, which derives our target price of USD258. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示: 用戶增長不及預期,付費轉化率不及預期,AI發展不及預期。


Risks include: lower-than-expected user growth; worse-than-expected paid user conversion rates; and slower-than-expected AI development progress.


Email: [email protected]

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