"
I DON'T order you to fight, I order you to die.” With those words Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founderof modern Turkey, rallied his troops against the British-led forces fighting for the Dardanelles in 1915 during the first world war, when Turkey was alliedto Germany. Ataturk's men won the battle for the straits, but the Ottoman empire lost the war. As millions of Turks prepare to mark the centenary of the battle of Gallipoli—the bloodiest of the campaign—on April 25th, many will hailit as the moment when the seeds of Ataturk's secular republic were planted.
第一次世界大战期间，土耳其曾经是德国的盟友，当时的土耳其国父—穆斯塔法·凯末尔·阿塔土克曾说：“我不强迫你们去战斗，但我命令你们为国家而亡。”彼时正值
1915
年，他募集军队与英国为了达达尼尔海峡而战。土耳其人民赢得了这场海峡战斗，但是奥斯曼帝国却输掉整场战争。现在，数以百万计的土耳其的人想要在
4
月
25
号这一天举行这场血淋淋的加利波利战役的百年纪念日—很多土耳其人都将它看成是土耳其共和国的建国基业。
But what remains of his legacy? The question is more urgent as Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's first popularly elected president, presses for constitutional changes that would endow him with executive power. He then hopes to fulfil his dream of a new and as sertiveTurkey, where Sunni Islam prevails and the glories of the old empire are revived. Others are less enthusiastic. “Turkey will become a Middle East-style dictatorship,” predicts Levent Gultekin, a prominent pundit.
但是这场战争留下了何种“遗产”？这个问题的答案对于土耳其共和国第一任普选总统—埃尔多安来说尤为迫切，体制改革的压力可能会迫使他将自己“捐献”给政府。只有在逊尼派穆斯林占据主流并且“帝国”恢复往日荣光时，他才能梦想实现他关于一个崭新的，自主的土耳其的愿望。而其他的方面的改革都被放缓。著名品论家
Levent Gultekin
语言“土耳其将成为一个中东类型的独裁国家。”
That may be an exaggeration. But Mr Erdogan certainly has grandiose ambitions. At Ataturk's farm near Ankara, he has built a garish new presidential complex with 1,150 rooms at a cost of $615m. He has decreed that the old Ottoman language and script, which Ataturk replaced with aroman one in 1928, be mandatory in the imam hatip schools for Muslim clergy thathave nearly quadrupled in number since his conservative Justice and Developmentparty (AK) came to power in 2002.
也许这样的言论太过极端。但是埃尔多安明显有着极大的野心。他在安卡拉附件的
Ataturk
农场上建立了一座由
1150
间房间构成的总统府，耗资接近
6.15
亿美元。而自从
2002
年由他领导的保守派公正与发展党（
AK
党）执政之后，他再度启用从
1928
年之后就被罗马文字取代的奥斯曼语言和文字，并且强制要求在那些培养穆斯林教士的伊玛目哈蒂普学校中必须使用该语言—这类学校的数量在他执政期间增加了几乎四倍之多。
To realise Mr Erdogan's plans, AK will haveto win a fourth general election in a row. One is due by June. Few doubt that AK will come first. The main opposition, the secular Republican People's Party(CHP), is a shambles. Still, AK must bag at least two-thirds of the seats inthe 550-member parliament if it is unilaterally to replace the constitutiondrawn up by the generals after they seized power in 1980. It is unlikely tomanage that.
但是如若要实现埃尔多安的计划，
AK
党需要接下来连续赢得四次大选。其中一次将于今年
6
月进行。考虑到主要的反对党—世俗人民共和党处在一篇狼藉之中，
AK
党毫无疑问能赢得大选。不过如果
AK
党想要完全重建自上世纪
80
年代他们掌权之后构造的国家体制，他们至少要在
550
个议会席位中占据三分之二以上—要实现这一目标现在还不太现实。
Indeed, Turkey's increasingly autocratic president faces several serious challenges in 2015. The first is to maintainhis grip on AK. Signs of internal dissent recently appeared when Binali Yildirim, one of Mr Erdogan's trusties, declared that the president would chaira cabinet meeting on January 5th. This irked Ahmet Davutoglu, the primeminister, handpicked by Mr Erdogan to succeed him when he switched to thepresidency in August. “Matters that concern me and our president can only beannounced by him and me,” harrumphed Mr Davutoglu. “No such meeting will takeplace.” Rumours swirl of a rival “shadow cabinet” of Mr Erdogan's sycophants.Moreover, the president is said to want to decide who should be on AK's list ofcandidates in the forthcoming election.
事实上，这位越发独裁的土耳其总统在
2015
年将面对不少严峻的挑战。首当其冲的就是如何维系他在
AK
党内的统治力。不久之前，埃尔多安的前亲信
Binali Yildirim
单方面宣称总统将会在
1
月
5
号举行一次内阁会议，这一事件表明
AK
党内部的分歧正渐渐浮出水面。
Binali Yildirim
的言论同时也激怒了总理
Ahmet Davutoglu
，后者在埃尔多安去年
8
月执政之后被钦定为他的助手。总理表示“所有与我本人以及总统有关的消息都只能由我们二人亲自宣布，所谓的内阁会议根本是子虚乌有。”关于某个为了对抗埃尔多安的支持者而成立的“影子议会”的谣言也传得沸沸扬扬。更有甚者宣称总统计划指定
AK
党内参与接下来大选的人员名单。
Another big issue is corruption. A smallbut growing group in AK feel uneasy about the charges that have been levelled against Mr Erdogan and his inner circle. The government's response of shiftingthe prosecutors and police concerned raised eyebrows. A 16-year-old student wasbriefly detained for calling Mr Erdogan a “thief”.
另一个无法忽视的问题就是腐败。
AK
党内部越来越多人发现要处理针对埃尔多安和他的核心集团的指控并不是那么轻松了。而政府的做法则是更换起诉人和要求涉事警界人员真一只眼闭一只眼。之前有一个
16
岁的学生因为说埃尔多安是“小偷”而被拘留。
Mr Erdogan says that Fethullah Gulen, anambitious Sunni cleric and former ally who lives in Pennsylvania, was behindcalls to investigate alleged corruption at the top, in cahoots with “higherminds”, meaning Israel and the United States, with the aim of toppling the government. Thousands of alleged Gulenists, who deny these claims, have been purged from the police and the judiciary. Journalists from newspapers and television channels affiliated to Mr Gulen have been detained on terrorist charges with scant evidence. America's likely refusal to extradite Mr Gulenwill add to strains between the two NATO allies that had already risen becauseof Turkey's reluctance to play a bigger part in the coalition against the jihadists of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
埃尔多安的前盟友—现居美国宾夕法尼亚的知名逊尼派人士法土拉葛兰一直从一种“更高的意识形态”上呼吁对土耳其政府高层进行反腐调查，总统则认为他是在以色列和美国的支持下意图颠覆现任政府。而不久之前，总统刚刚进行了一次媒体洗牌，数以千计的“葛兰派”报纸和电视台记者因为否认这种言论因为莫须有的从事恐怖活动的罪名被警方和司法机构逮捕。因为土耳其拒绝在针对在伊拉克和叙利亚的伊斯兰圣战组织的联盟中出更多力，土耳其和美国这两个北约盟友之间本已关系紧张，现在美国拒绝引渡葛兰回国更可能会加剧这依情况。
A third headache for Mr Erdogan, perhapshis biggest, is the economy. Sagging oil prices have boosted it. The current-account deficit is expected to shrink and inflation to fall this year. Yet growth needs to exceed 3% if living standards are to be maintained, and Turkey shows few signs of managing that without a politically testing programmeof liberalising reforms. Some 2m refugees from Syria are also straining the state's coffers.
不过埃尔多安超过三分之一的心思，或者说最大的麻烦都应该在经济问题上。而现在持续下跌的原油价格更是加剧了这一点。往来账户赤字和通货膨胀本来今年都有望下降。如果要维持现行水平，那么经济增长至少要突破
