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微軟公司: 微軟2024 Build大會發布AI PC產品和Azure更新

天风国际  · 公众号  ·  · 2024-07-09 18:00

正文

Microsoft Corp

(MSFT US)


微軟2024 Build大會發布AI PC產品和Azure更新


Build 2024: key offerings like Copilot+ AI PCs and Azure upgrades stand out from the slew of new releases

BUY(maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

事件: 微軟2024 Build大會:北京時間5月22日凌晨,微軟在2024 Build大會發布一系列AI相關產品。


Microsoft Build 2024 key releases: Copilot+; Azure AI; DirectML and Khanmigo

Microsoft announced a slew of new releases at its annual Build developers’ conference, which ran in late May this year. They include the following:


1) Copilot相關產品包括第一代Copilot+PC產品——全新的Surface Laptop和Surface Pro、可提取和分析數據的Copilot connectors、可協助團隊的Team Copilot、GitHub Copilot功能拓展以及構建AI應用程序的平臺Windows Copilot Runtime。同時,微軟宣佈與Qualcomm合作,將Copilot+PCs拓展到Arm架構。


Copilot+: the first generation of Copilot+ PCs and products include:

•Surface laptop and hybrid laptop-tablet Surface Pro.

•Copilot connectors: extract and analyze data.

•Team Copilot: an AI assistant that organizes teamwork.

•GitHub Copilot: a coding aid extension.

•Windows Copilot Runtime: a platform that builds AI apps.

•Microsoft announced its partnership with Qualcomm extends Arm architecture to Copilot+ PCs.


2) Azure相關產品包括可降低AI成本的Microsoft Azure、未來要應用到Copilot和Azure OpenAI的Azure Maia、首個通用ARM-based計算處理器Azure Cobalt、提供前沿和開源模型的Azure AI、端到端的工具解決方案Azure AI Studio。同時微軟宣佈了與NVIDIA、AMD以及OpenAI的合作。


Azure: Microsoft Azure helps reduce AI costs:

•Maia: will apply to Copilot and Azure OpenAI in the future.

•Cobalt: the first general-purpose Arm-based computing processor.

•Azure AI: provides cutting-edge, open-source models.

•Azure AI Studio: end-to-end tooling solutions.

•Microsoft announced collaborations with Nvidia, AMD and OpenAI.


3) 發佈了Windows DirectML,實現本地支持PyTorch和新的WebNN框架;推出了Microsoft Fabric,支持實時智能分析和跨平臺數據管理;宣佈了新Phi-3模型,包括具有語言和視覺功能的42億參數的多模式模型Phi-3 Vision、70億參數的Phi-3 small模型和140億參數的Phi-3 medium模型以及Phi-Silica。


Windows DirectML:

•DirectML: the new machine-learning interface natively supports PyTorch and the new Web Neural Network (WebNN) framework.

•Microsoft Fabric: real-time smart analysis and cross-platform data management.

•New Phi-3 models include Phi-3 Vision, a 4.2bn-parameter multimodal model with language and vision capabilities; 7bn-parameter Phi-3 small language model; 14bn-parameter Phi-3 medium language model; and Phi-Silica.


4) 宣佈與Khan Academy合作,推出了Khanmigo,併合作開發專門用於數學輔導的Phi模型。


Khanmigo: the MS and Khan Academy collaboration will launch Khanmigo to develop a Phi model specifically for math tutoring.


投資建議: 微軟在這次大會上發佈了第一代AI PC產品,性能、續航和定價上均對標MacBook系列,同時配備了Recall、實時音頻轉字幕等AI功能。此外,它還推出了Azure系列相關產品,宣佈了與NVIDIA等公司的合作等。


Takeaways: AI PC products add potential; partnerships expand customer base

Key releases: we believe the first-generation Microsoft AI PC products unveiled at the event are comparable to Apple MacBooks in terms of performance, battery life and pricing. They are equipped with AI functionalities like Recall and real-time audio-to-text transcription. Microsoft launched the Azure series of products and announced collabs with Nvidia and other partners.


我們認爲:

1) 微軟第一代AI PC在性能表現、續航以及配備的AI功能有諸多亮點,我們對微軟AI PC未來一年業務表現持樂觀態度;


2) Azure AI方面發佈的包括Azure OpenAI和Azure AI Studio等更新提高了Azure在雲計算市場上的競爭力。會上宣佈的與英偉達等公司的合作進一步擴大了Azure的客戶羣體。基於上述兩方面以及微軟和OpenAI良好的合作關係,我們看好未來一年Azure相關的雲計算業務表現。我們預計,雲計算業務有望成爲微軟未來一年業務收入的主要驅動因素。


Key takeaways:

•AI PCs: Microsoft’s first-generation AI PCs tick the boxes for performance, battery life and AI functionalities. We are bullish about the AI PCs’ business performance in the year ahead.

•Azure AI: the upgrades include Azure OpenAI and Azure AI Studio, and they raise Azure’s competitiveness in the cloud computing market. The partnerships revealed at the Build conference, including that with Nvidia, are likely to expand the Azure customer base. We are bullish about Azure’s cloud computing business performance in the year ahead on the basis of the above two factors, as well as Microsoft’s sound ties with OpenAI. We anticipate cloud computing will become the company’s main revenue driver in the year ahead.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


基於上述分析以及個人計算部門營收在FY2023同比增長下降的情況,我們預測FY2024-FY2026營業收入將從2517/2997/3555億美元調整爲2473/2851/3280億美元,預測歸母淨利潤將從887/1059/1380億美元調整爲899/990/1114億美元,維持“買入”評級。


Forecast and risks

In light of the factors discussed above and Microsoft’s revenue decline yoy in its personal computing business in FY23 (fiscal year ended June 2023), we lower our revenue forecast to USD247.3bn/285.1bn/328bn in FY24/25/26E (from USD251.7bn/299.7bn/ 355.5bn) and our net profit forecast to USD89.9bn/99.0bn/111.4bn (from USD88.7bn/ 105.9bn/138bn). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示: AI發展不及預期、AI PC銷量不及預期、AI競爭加劇等。


Risks include: weaker-than-expected AI development; worse-than-expected AI PC sales; and intensifying competition in AI industries.



Email: [email protected]

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